Predict my Alphafly 5K conversion (Hobby Jogger)

Masters Running

3 years ago 04/16/2021 2:24pm EDT

Synopsis: Last Sunday time-trialed a 5K in 26:31, wearing Hoka Clifton 6s with orthotics. Picked up Alphafly this week from Running Warehouse. Predict my 5K time for this Sunday. I am predicting 25:12.

Background: 37 yo, 5'8, went from 165 pre-pandemic to 200. As of about 6 weeks ago I'm now back on the horse, losing about 2lbs/week, running 35 mpw, and each Sunday time-trialing a 5K. 185 lbs currently. Last 3 weeks' progression:

28:34

27:00

26:31

Given that I'm going from ultra-heavy shoes (hoka's AND orthotics) to the Alphafly, I think I will get a fairly significant boost. Also I bet there is probably 15 seconds' improvement from my last week just due to weight loss and better fitness.

3 years ago 04/16/2021 2:35pm EDT

re: wow21

3 years ago 04/16/2021 4:31pm EDT

re: wow21

Hard to predict the effect of the shoes since you are dropping weight so quickly and regaining fitness. It's entirely possible you would run 25mid in your old shoes anyways. Theres also the additional factor of the weather getting a lot better.

If you want to see the effect of the shoes, I think you're better off waiting until your 5k efforts start to plateau.

3 years ago 04/16/2021 7:44pm EDT

re: wow21

3 years ago 04/16/2021 8:11pm EDT

re: wow21

25:34 with a blown out left heel afterwards..

3 years ago 04/18/2021 9:35am EDT

re: AlphaBetaTime

23:51, a 10.0% improvement over last week. I'm not really surprised -- if the Alphafly delivers a 4% improvement over racing flats, and I was comparing it to trainers w/ orthotics, combined with probably some level of organic improvement over last week, 10% makes some sense to me.

3 years ago 04/18/2021 9:47am EDT

re: wow21

Your first drop from 28:34 to 27:00 was 9.5%.

Looks like you accidentally bought the Nike 0.5%.

3 years ago 04/18/2021 9:52am EDT

re: Koalafier

Excuse my bad math, your first drop was ~5% off of your original time.

3 years ago 04/18/2021 10:30am EDT

re: wow21

How much weight was dropped between last weekend and this weekend?

3 years ago 04/18/2021 11:40am EDT

re: gollypassthesnacks

gollypassthesnacks wrote:
How much weight was dropped between last weekend and this weekend?

1.2 lbs

3 years ago 04/18/2021 11:58am EDT

re: wow21

proof that nobody runs fast in Hokas

3 years ago 04/18/2021 12:32pm EDT

re: wow21

Cliftons aren't ultra heavy. They are definitely on the lightweight side for training shoes.

3 years ago 04/18/2021 12:58pm EDT

re: Cliftons

Cliftons wrote:
Cliftons aren't ultra heavy. They are definitely on the lightweight side for training shoes.

You're correct, as LRC almost always is. My language was a little unclear -- the combination of running in Hokas (or any trainer) and orthotics is what I was trying to say was "ultra-heavy". Clifton 7's are 247 grams, but my pair of orthotics is 184 grams =435 grams. The Brooks Beast is only 377 grams.

3 years ago 04/18/2021 12:59pm EDT

re: wow21

wow21 wrote:
Cliftons wrote:
Cliftons aren't ultra heavy. They are definitely on the lightweight side for training shoes.
You're correct, as LRC almost always is. My language was a little unclear -- the combination of running in Hokas (or any trainer) and orthotics is what I was trying to say was "ultra-heavy". Clifton 7's are 247 grams, but my pair of orthotics is 184 grams =435 grams. The Brooks Beast is only 377 grams.

I should deduct the weight of the insoles that come with the shoes, but IIRC they are only about 20 grams.

2 years ago 04/25/2021 8:35pm EDT

re: wow21

2 years ago 04/28/2021 9:03pm EDT

re: gollypassthesnacks

gollypassthesnacks wrote:
Update?

Please see above: 23:51. Ran again 10 days later and booked a 23:39.

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