A ticket costs $1000. Each ticket has a 1 in 1,000 chance of winning $1 billion. How many do you buy?

yes yes yes yes wrote:

hedge fund manager wrote:

If you can win more than once then I’d probably go 20,000. If not, 7,500.

To be clear, then you are committing to buying as much as 20 million dollars of tickets. And to be clear, one would assume that is your money. not that of your hedge fund shareholders.

So, I would gather, you are either very very financially endowed personally, or prone to be a bit cavalier with other people's money.

$20,000,000 is my liquid available personal resources. I have a lot of other non-liquid personal assets, so I would not be destitute if I lost all of it. The odds of not winning at least $1billion with 20,000 tickets is astronomically small. 2e-9 according to my math (.999^20000). I can afford that risk.

notafan wrote:

``` wrote:

Also, my intention was that each ticket has an independent chance at winning--for each ticket, a 1000-side die is rolled, and if it comes up 69, you get a $billion...

Can someone explain to me, with this description, how you wouldn’t be guaranteed to win if you bought all 1,000 numbers? That was my impression under the OPs first post and has only been fortified now.. but I’ll admit I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed.

Along a similar vein, how can you create a lottery with a 1-1000 chance of winning, but have more than 1000 combinations (or numbers).

It's a stupid thread. The OP's question is idiotic. With only $1 million in ticket revenue, where is the $Billion supposed to come from?

One of the best deals in gambling is the traditional single wager straight bet -11/+10 money line on a basketball or football game with a point spread.

Long term indirect takeout = 4.55%

95.45% of the money wagered goes into the prize pool.

The OP describes an imaginary contest that would never exist in the real world.

MnM wrote:

DanM wrote:

Odds of 1000 to 1.

A minus pool of $999 Million.

Funded by who ? Gates ? Buffett ?

It's funded by Dr. Thought_Exercise. Don't be a pedant.

He can't help himself.

hedge fund manager wrote:

yes yes yes yes wrote:

To be clear, then you are committing to buying as much as 20 million dollars of tickets. And to be clear, one would assume that is your money. not that of your hedge fund shareholders.

So, I would gather, you are either very very financially endowed personally, or prone to be a bit cavalier with other people's money.

$20,000,000 is my liquid available personal resources. I have a lot of other non-liquid personal assets, so I would not be destitute if I lost all of it. The odds of not winning at least $1billion with 20,000 tickets is astronomically small. 2e-9 according to my math (.999^20000). I can afford that risk.

Okay, thanks. I'd wish you 'Good luck' but I'm not sure you need it.