10k rankings 2021

making the loot wrote:

What is this Ahmed thing? Ahmed ran his one "magical" 5000 only with absolutely perfect pacing & conditions. When has he ever approached this in an actual race? All those times he was chasing Kenyans/Ethiopians? Never. At his best Ahmed was 5 seconds faster in the 5000 and 10 seconds faster in the 10000 than Scott. Only thing is Ahmed is on the downswing, Scott is on the upswing.

Scotts's 13:05 was sort of a time trial but far worse pacing than during Ahmeds 12:47.

Mo's last 5-6 yrs of 5000s:

Obviously similar to Scotts capability.

2015: 13:10

2016: 13:01

2017: 13:08

2018: 13:03

2019: 12:58

2020: 12:47*

*Current Scott could run same in those same pacing/conditions.

You must be the same dude who claimed Justyn Knight is “going nowhere” a month ago—I can just tell.

So do you have something against Canadians, or is there something else to it?

Wha? And what does Knight have to do with 10k rankings?

Nice try at deflection but I'll come back here after Ahmed & Scott race each other and discuss how Ahmed had not managed to beat Scott by 18 seconds in a 5000.

making the loot wrote:

What is this Ahmed thing? Ahmed ran his one "magical" 5000 only with absolutely perfect pacing & conditions. When has he ever approached this in an actual race? All those times he was chasing Kenyans/Ethiopians? Never. At his best Ahmed was 5 seconds faster in the 5000 and 10 seconds faster in the 10000 than Scott. Only thing is Ahmed is on the downswing, Scott is on the upswing.

Scotts's 13:05 was sort of a time trial but far worse pacing than during Ahmeds 12:47.

Scott's 13:05 was a pure time trial same as Ahmed's. The pacing was totally fine, Scott could only manage a 1:59.7 last 800 as Grant Fisher smoked him. Clearly this was close to his optimal pacing or he wouldn't have gotten embarrassed by Fisher. Or he just had a massive off day. You tell me. It's just crystal clear that Ahmed can 13:00 pace in his sleep AND kick. Clearly, Scott could not.

Ahmed doesn't have one "magical" 5000, he finished 3rd in the world and won a medal beating Jakob and numerous guys with sub-13 PBs. Is that enough of an actual race for you? Or are 10K time trials with the likes of Grant Fisher more "real." Ahmed is on the downside why? After last year's excellent season. By the way he ran 13:01 in non-super spikes back in 2016, which is better than anything Scott has done even with superspikes.

Your only hope for this argument is that Mo is injured and missing tons of training before the Olympics.

The prospect of a 27-flat race us hugely underpriced on these boards. I don't think we'll see a particularly fast time in Tokyo and people with a strong close are going to be in play

runderun wrote:

The prospect of a 27-flat race us hugely underpriced on these boards. I don't think we'll see a particularly fast time in Tokyo and people with a strong close are going to be in play

yah, with you on this.

Tokyo during August? should be around 75 with at least 60 percent humidity... STICKY!

Gonna be a battle of attrition with. surges and pace pushing throughout, then a kickers race with whoever survives the first 8000m - I predict less than 6

If they are healthy, only Cheptegei and Kiplimo have a legit chance to win this thing.

jabouko wrote:

yah, with you on this.

Tokyo during August? should be around 75 with at least 60 percent humidity... STICKY!

Gonna be a battle of attrition with. surges and pace pushing throughout, then a kickers race with whoever survives the first 8000m - I predict less than 6

That was roughly the weather when Cheptegei set his 10K World Record. These guys are so fit and from warm-weather climates unless you're talking 80+ and 70%+ humidity, I'm not sure it matter so much.

making the loot wrote:

Wha? And what does Knight have to do with 10k rankings?

Nice try at deflection but I'll come back here after Ahmed & Scott race each other and discuss how Ahmed had not managed to beat Scott by 18 seconds in a 5000.

Well I don’t think he’ll beat Scott by 18 seconds in a 5k race, but he will beat him, and he’d beat him at 3k and 1500 as well.

“Not if I come back here first!”

OK, maybe Tokyo is closer to 80+ and 70%...

birdbeard wrote:

If they are healthy, only Cheptegei and Kiplimo have a legit chance to win this thing.

I would not necessarily agree with this but I understand why you would say this. IF I could take the rest of the field and you get those two I might make that bet. However, that is only because “anything can happen” and who knows about Barega? As a 12:43 and 3:32 runner he cannot be so easily discounted. Who has the best finish? The Ugandans are formidable no doubt.

Cheptegei and Kiplimo have the advantage in warmer climates if anything. They will run the kick out of all the kickers in the heat. Sub 27 is definitely going to happen. Even despite the heat I think sub 26:30 will happen because of Kipruto, Kandie, Cheptegei, and Kiplimo all preferring a faster pace.

Why would you expect a sub 26:30 in a championship race? Very few can run that fast with pacers and wave lights. So how are they going to do it in a championship race? Championship races almost never play out that way. To expect it is to announce that you are either naive or clairvoyant.

Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda 10k wrote:

Cheptegei and Kiplimo have the advantage in warmer climates if anything. They will run the kick out of all the kickers in the heat. Sub 27 is definitely going to happen. Even despite the heat I think sub 26:30 will happen because of Kipruto, Kandie, Cheptegei, and Kiplimo all preferring a faster pace.

Can't see the that at all. 26:30 is still a monster time that has only been broken 8 times - and 6 of those were by just two men, Bekele and Geb. No one has ever broken 27 at the Olympics and Bekele, Farah and Cheptegei are the only people to have won in sub-27 at the World Champs. If you asked me to bet right now, I'd put all my money on a time of 27+

Championships are a different beast when medals are on the line, especially the Olympics which most of these guys will only get one good shot at

I think people are discounting the effect the heat will have. Could easily slow the race down by 30+ seconds. I think 27:00 - 27:30 is the realistic winning time

Few notes:

1. Kenya is likely to push the pace. They did in 2019 and if anything (barring Kimeli breaking in) they are more strength-based than before. If it's Kamworor or Kandie joins the fray, setting a 13:25-13:30 pace in the heat is the best formula to taking out some contenders. I'd assume there will be team tactics galore and the national team coach will assert that making it a strength race is the formula for sub-58 guys to medal against Farah, Ahmed, Barega, Kejelcha etc. You can quibble if it doesn't really matter cuz the Ugandans are too good, and they won't drop the Ethiopians, but I think this will be their tactic.

2. The spikes **do** matter. I think yes you would normally say 27:00-27:15 is the typical winning type in not perfect conditions unlike Doha with AC. However if these spikes give a second or two per mile you can do the math.

3. The other potential tactic here is rope-a-dope until and then hammer. If that's the case we could see a 14:00-14:30 type 5K and then these guys will come close to sub-13. I think this is very very possible if it's as hot as some of you guys think

Emoemo wrote:

birdbeard wrote:

If they are healthy, only Cheptegei and Kiplimo have a legit chance to win this thing.

I would not necessarily agree with this but I understand why you would say this. IF I could take the rest of the field and you get those two I might make that bet. However, that is only because “anything can happen” and who knows about Barega? As a 12:43 and 3:32 runner he cannot be so easily discounted. Who has the best finish? The Ugandans are formidable no doubt.

Cheptegei has outkicked Barega in the past in shorter events (Pre 2-mile), and absolutely crushed him in the longer stuff (World XC). I doubt he'd be around to kick against Cheptegei in a 10,000, but if he is, I think Cheptegei would have no issue with him. Kiplimo might be even faster in the sorter stuff than Joshua -- although watching Cheptegei kick vs. Kejelcha in 2019 and Farah in 2017 makes me think this is Joshua's to lose. He has a vicious kick in the longer races.

Yes but I suspect you will never see the two Ugandans run faster than in 2020. Make of that what you will. You do dismiss Barega too lightly. He is as good as anyone out there.

Emoemo wrote:

Yes but I suspect you will never see the two Ugandans run faster than in 2020. Make of that what you will. You do dismiss Barega too lightly. He is as good as anyone out there.

Well, they crushed Barega in 2019 as well at World XC (and Cheptegei beat him at Pre in the 2-mile and in a 5000 as well). But I agree he is as good as good as anyone else.

Emoemo wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

I mean he ran 12:47 for 5,000. He broke 3:35 for 1500 (with a fast finish). Not saying he's like prime Mo Farah or something but rather he is better at the 5,000 than the HM unlike Kandie or Kipruto who are very strong but have unproven speed. He could not hang in he 10,000 in 2019 but got bronze in the 5. Suspect a similar situation plays out this year.

OK but keep in mind that Ahmed ran 26:59 for 6th in Doha in a World Championship race and at that time his best 5000m was 12:58. It is probable that Ahmed can run 26:30ish when he is in 12:47 shape. Ahmed is not particularly fast in a sprint finish though.

Wait, what? He had enough sprint speed to get 3rd in the 2019 5000m with Jakob tripping him all over the place.