Not a debate, but seems like US authorities underestimating % people who won't get vaccinated. What you think?

Sadly... youre right. But it's fun so I keep going. My favorite part is that the letter he posted concerning immune hyper-stimulation from vaccines is based 100% on the premise (and article from the same author) that this is already occurring with viral infections (!!) and thus must be investigated with the vaccine - which he was trying to claim wasn't true. Even his "sources" contradict him. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7479552/) That being said, both the letter and the article are suspiciously devoid of data/plausible theory. Of course innate immune receptors get activated from the vaccine... they must for strong costimulation. Linking that autoimmunity in "susceptible populations" requires more evidence LMAO.

Conservative Christian wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

No it’s restricted primarily to the lymphatic system in the vicinity of the intramuscular injection.

Pathogen factories. LOL. A spike protein is not a virus.

You are Dunning-Kruger personified :)

Again. Pharma defeated the virus. Get over it.

You are too patient with these morons. Not worth your time.

Lead Foil Hat wrote:

1.) Excess deaths massively overestimated by the CDC

Excess deaths is a statistic using nothing more than the count of people who die in a particular period.

So to be clear, are you saying that deaths are miscounted or that the CDC is incapable of plausible correct statistical analysis?

Given that death counts are ultimately traceable to at least the county level, the first would imply an implausibly broad conspiracy. I haven't seen any Covid skeptic present an analytic argument for the second.

The CDC total US death number for 2020 is 3,358,814.

Imagine if a cataclysm had occurred and 6 Million died in 2020. At the end of the year, 99% of the people who should have been alive would have been alive.

As it is, with 3,358,814 dead, 99.85% of the people who should have been alive were, in fact, alive on December 31, 2020.

A rational view of the numbers is largely missing from the public debate over the virus and the multitude of experimental shots.

The US population INCREASED by 1.2 Million in 2020.

DanM wrote:

The CDC total US death number for 2020 is 3,358,814.

Imagine if a cataclysm had occurred and 6 Million died in 2020. At the end of the year, 99% of the people who should have been alive would have been alive.

As it is, with 3,358,814 dead, 99.85% of the people who should have been alive were, in fact, alive on December 31, 2020.

A rational view of the numbers is largely missing from the public debate over the virus and the multitude of experimental shots.

The US population INCREASED by 1.2 Million in 2020.

As long as the number keeps going up we're fine right?

🤣🤣🤣

Let me ask you this: how many deaths would have to be for it to be an issue?

He claims the CDC purposely changed the death threshold in 2020 to make it seem worse because the threshold was shifted down 1-2 deaths a week and the end of winter. We showed him that a naive linear approach to deaths, fitting a line to yearly deaths and projecting to 2020 still gives 450k excess deaths!

Monkeys Skyping wrote:

Lead Foil Hat wrote:

1.) Excess deaths massively overestimated by the CDC

Excess deaths is a statistic using nothing more than the count of people who die in a particular period.

So to be clear, are you saying that deaths are miscounted or that the CDC is incapable of plausible correct statistical analysis?

Given that death counts are ultimately traceable to at least the county level, the first would imply an implausibly broad conspiracy. I haven't seen any Covid skeptic present an analytic argument for the second.

Monkeys Skyping wrote:

Lead Foil Hat wrote:

1.) Excess deaths massively overestimated by the CDC

Excess deaths is a statistic using nothing more than the count of people who die in a particular period.

So to be clear, are you saying that deaths are miscounted or that the CDC is incapable of plausible correct statistical analysis?

Given that death counts are ultimately traceable to at least the county level, the first would imply an implausibly broad conspiracy. I haven't seen any Covid skeptic present an analytic argument for the second.

It does not require a broad conspiracy. First off, you are wrong, excess death tablation requires the real numbers of deaths, yes this is real, compared to an estimate of total expected deaths; this estimate was lowered by the CDC by a large rate exactly at the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 (this may be a manipulative effort by a small few at the CDC). You could easily look at previous year death/estimate and speculate a 3.15 million deaths estimate rather than the 2.95 estimate they lower things to. I personally believe the excess deaths (1) are about 200-300k greater than reality and (2) that a large number are from non-covid related deaths caused by avoidance of the public health system, incorrectly attributed deaths (yes, they were counting people dying in hospice as covid deaths if there was a positive test, this is ridiculous) and a high build up of sick elderly people associated with a low death count year in 2019....low years should be proceeded by a higher year....non of this is discussed because the CDC wanted to get rid of Trump and they turned this into a political game. Doctors do not need to do anything other than their jobs (no conspiracy) for all of these "numbers" to become very misleading. This does not mean Covid was not devastating either; a death toll of 100-200,000 for any virus is significant and worrisome, although we should be asking the question of "If we had just stuck with business as usual, would the the span of this pandemic have been shorter and less deadly?"; personally, I think so. I think the unprecedented OCD style response of 2020 not only wrecked nations economically, wrecked the education of the world's children, killed people of other causes, and trashed the psychological state of the world, but it also caused more people to die for the virus than would have if we had treated it like any other virus has been treated in the past.

2600 bro wrote:

Sadly... youre right.

But it's fun so I keep going.

My favorite part is that the letter he posted concerning immune hyper-stimulation from vaccines is based 100% on the premise (and article from the same author) that this is already occurring with viral infections (!!) and thus must be investigated with the vaccine - which he was trying to claim wasn't true. Even his "sources" contradict him. (

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7479552/

)

That being said, both the letter and the article are suspiciously devoid of data/plausible theory. Of course innate immune receptors get activated from the vaccine... they must for strong costimulation. Linking that autoimmunity in "susceptible populations" requires more evidence LMAO.

Conservative Christian wrote:

You are too patient with these morons. Not worth your time.

Yes, real sever viral infections, not asymptomatic infections that are immediately fought off by the immune system. So far your arguments are just spinning words to protect the mRNA tech; you might make a good salesperson.

Former runner turned bodybuilder wrote:

Not interested in the vaccine. As a baby boomer, I had the Chicken Pox, Mumps, Measles, etc., and I'm still here. Lol. The pharma-controlled MSM fearmongering machine has conditioned people to believe that no one has a healthy immune system anymore and if you don't take the vaccine you'll die of Covid or one of the variants.

Big Pharma is very good at manipulating the masses through control of the MSM, the CDC (captured agency) and our elected officials (Big Pharma is the biggest lobbyist in Congress outspending Big Oil & Gas by a 2-1 margin).

I bodybuild, still run a little, eat a healthy organic diet and take vitamin D3/get plenty of sunshine 💪-not interested in Big Pharma's Covid vaccine concoction. 😖

Big Pharma loves you because if enough people refuse to get the vaccine it will stick around longer and we will need to re-up those shots yearly. Of note, big pharma does not make nearly the money off of vaccines that it does other drugs for things such as heart disease or cancer, etc etc and would prefer to spend its R&D money there.

2600 bro wrote:

He claims the CDC purposely changed the death threshold in 2020 to make it seem worse because the threshold was shifted down 1-2 deaths a week and the end of winter.

We showed him that a naive linear approach to deaths, fitting a line to yearly deaths and projecting to 2020 still gives 450k excess deaths!

Monkeys Skyping wrote:

Excess deaths is a statistic using nothing more than the count of people who die in a particular period.

So to be clear, are you saying that deaths are miscounted or that the CDC is incapable of plausible correct statistical analysis?

Given that death counts are ultimately traceable to at least the county level, the first would imply an implausibly broad conspiracy. I haven't seen any Covid skeptic present an analytic argument for the second.

Even with the CDC projection, total excess deaths was 400k, so you are still a little liar, but ok. Remove the shift and we are down to 300k or less and many of those are not all covid deaths. SINCE YOU ARE STILL WORKING ENTIRELY OFF OF ASSUMPTIONS, I am still going to favor my assumption that covid deaths are really in the ballpark of 100-200k; still not good and requiring an awareness campaign and vaccine development of susceptible populations, but not shutdown of life, ruining the economy and livelihoods, nor vaccination of non-susceptible children with novel vaccine tech that does not have data on long-term health outcomes.

Ah yes my unrealistic assumptions: 1) Linear growth of a death rate 2) CDC death counts (as Monkey’s said, at the county level) are accurate I’m the crazy one!! LMAO I welcome your calculation of those numbers :) All the data are out there! Let’s see it! So far I just see a lot of blah blah blah!

“I have no data to support my assumptions and I openly admit I don’t understand how excess deaths are calculated. However, I will still accept my estimate of 1/2 the excess deaths everyone else calculates because it makes me feel better.”

Compelling! You are welcome to live in your fantasy land (safe space)

Wow, is this always how you act when people disagree with your assumptions? You can't post excel files or figures on Letsrun, where are your numbers....you just state them and hand wave. In the end it is funny to watch you arrogantly wave your hands about data and use it to mock everyone' who disagrees with you. Do you find yourself arguing with people a lot? I can see a lot of people avoiding you because you are so full of yourself that talking with you is not worth it. Every time people make good or reasonable points, you bring out the insults to steer things back to yourself as being some sort of genius, when you are not. Give up the gig dude.

DanM wrote:

The CDC total US death number for 2020 is 3,358,814.

Imagine if a cataclysm had occurred and 6 Million died in 2020. At the end of the year, 99% of the people who should have been alive would have been alive.

As it is, with 3,358,814 dead, 99.85% of the people who should have been alive were, in fact, alive on December 31, 2020.

A rational view of the numbers is largely missing from the public debate over the virus and the multitude of experimental shots.

The US population INCREASED by 1.2 Million in 2020.

So, again, your theory is that a disease that *has killed* > 0.15% of the US population is not a concern? Keep in mind that without the NPIs ("lockdowns" as you no doubt call them) we deployed, it would be much, much higher than 0.15%? Yes?

Shows work:

500K/330M*(100) = 0.15

So you're saying that all of these individual unlikely things conspired together to make it seem like there was a pandemic? And you think this explanation is more likely than the simple explanation that there really was a pandemic that killed a lot of people?

Let me ask you this- do you think that it is physically possible for a pandemic to occur? What would the data look like? How would it be different from the data we have?

Who is saying there was no pandemic? I am not. Many many people saying this pandemic was overblown and expressing real concerns that the response did more harm than good is not a denial of the virus. The virus is real and a nasty one, but the measures being taken I feel have just made it worse and not better and they are wreaking havoc on our youth populations and peoples livelihoods for little to no gain. The vaccines are the best response so far and they should be encouraged among those most susceptible. Never before in history though have we shutdown schools for over a year and tested some many people that are not sick at all over an assumption of a mechanism of spread that has been shown to not be significant. I don't know where you are reading (other than Uncle) that people think the virus does not exist at all or that it is not deadly to portions of the population; this assumption of your is ludicrous and incorrect.

Plus, things like the CDC lower their expected death estimates in March of 2020 is not an unlikely thing...they did exactly this in March of 2020. Hospitals listing every death coupled to a covid test as covid being the underlying cause of death did happen and the health officials admitted they were doing this publicly. And yes, people did avoid the health system in droves and this did add significantly to the excess deaths that occurred in 2020; why have we not focused on saving those people by killing the scare-mongering. Schools should have opened last June and never again thought of remote learning....there is no evidence that those shutdowns benefited anything.

I actually agree for the most part on school closures- I think there is a way to have safe in person learning and remote learning is likely very damaging.

I disagree that hospital avoidance is driving excess death numbers in 2020. Those deaths would not show up for many years.

I do agree with this last statement, although I think even the CDC claims a fraction of the excess is not covid related. 2019 was also a low death burden year, so 2020 should have expected a higher burden. You are probably very right that the excess deaths do to avoidance will show up more and more over the next 5 years or so as people who missing cancer screenings that would have caught things early start to suffer.

Conservative Christian wrote:

DanM wrote:

The CDC total US death number for 2020 is 3,358,814.

Imagine if a cataclysm had occurred and 6 Million died in 2020. At the end of the year, 99% of the people who should have been alive would have been alive.

As it is, with 3,358,814 dead, 99.85% of the people who should have been alive were, in fact, alive on December 31, 2020.

A rational view of the numbers is largely missing from the public debate over the virus and the multitude of experimental shots.

The US population INCREASED by 1.2 Million in 2020.

As long as the number keeps going up we're fine right?

🤣🤣🤣

Let me ask you this: how many deaths would have to be for it to be an issue?

It's an issue now ! 458,000 deaths greater than a reasonable projection is important. People who are in clearly defined high risk groups may want to take their chances with one of those experimental vaccines.

I know. It's not 1918. But to think that we 21st Century people are world beaters and widespread infectious disease outbreaks can be immediately stopped by experimental vaccination administered to the entire population is arrogance with the potential for disaster.

I hope the mRNA vaccines work for the people who have made the choice to take them.