How fast will untrained, gifted 15 year old boy run the mile?

Vicarious glory dad achievement unlocked.

"I suspect he is significantly faster than this, but who knows at this point "

You answered your own question.

LOL

I was laughing at one response because this does remind me of a helicopter parent. Why don't you FB Jim Ryun or Gerry Lindgren? They could give you a more informed point of view.

My son ran 4:56 in 8th grade gym class having never run before. He ran 4:31 as a freshman in track and 4:20 as a senior and didn't really improve in college.

Gonna be a bummer if he turns out to be an average 4:30HS kid who would have won countless races by now.

That was me, pretty successful youth career, great memories, basically peaked at 13 or 14, lousy in HS (an not for lack of trying). Glad I had my time in the spotlight and glad some other kids dad asked if I wanted to go with them to an XC race when I was 9.

Genetic experiment wrote:

back-end scorer on a very good CC team

What you did with your team in your free time is your own business, dude.

5:26 isn't very good for a 15 year old.

But it does sound like he has some good pedigree and some natural speed. Put some miles in over the next few months and times will drop pretty quickly. Lots of 30-40 minute runs, 1-2 moderate workouts in a 7-10 day span, and strides/drills at the end of runs.

As for the coaching part, don't leave it up to a marginal coach. Sounds like you and your wife should know what to do.

Did he hit puberty yet? Is he a boy or a man-child?

Some years ago, we had a young man join our team who had run 5:12 in gym class with no training. He went on to be a sub 29 10k runner in college, eventually holding his school record at the distance.

Manbearpig15 wrote:

5:26 isn't very good for a 15 year old.

But it does sound like he has some good pedigree and some natural speed. Put some miles in over the next few months and times will drop pretty quickly. Lots of 30-40 minute runs, 1-2 moderate workouts in a 7-10 day span, and strides/drills at the end of runs.

As for the coaching part, don't leave it up to a marginal coach. Sounds like you and your wife should know what to do.

Pretty much. I didn’t join track until nearly 16. And I was a major slacker. I was dropping low 5:00 miles in PE fitness tests well before I joined track. And I wouldn’t even consider myself talented. Just “good enough.” 5:26 @15 is good for most but not talented in the mile good.

He's post pubescent but in the middle of a pretty good growth spurt and if anything like me, won't start shaving everyday til his 20s. Not a man-child. Will prob be 6' and thin. Good miler build. No helicopter anything here. Mom and I give advice when it is solicited, but best to let him find his own way w/this and most other things in life. He's an above average american football player and an excellent soccer player, but is already talking about running CC so he doesn't have to suffer through getting in track shape again. I'm hopeful. 800 on the docket for next meet and I will update.

Genetic experiment wrote:

He's post pubescent but in the middle of a pretty good growth spurt and if anything like me, won't start shaving everyday til his 20s. Not a man-child. Will prob be 6' and thin. Good miler build. No helicopter anything here. Mom and I give advice when it is solicited, but best to let him find his own way w/this and most other things in life. He's an above average american football player and an excellent soccer player, but is already talking about running CC so he doesn't have to suffer through getting in track shape again. I'm hopeful. 800 on the docket for next meet and I will update.

At this point he may make wild gains. Too early to tell what his talent level is, really. I wish him success!!!

No way to tell, but the genetics seem to be there! Don’t force him and let him find his own passion and development. It’ll be better for him in the long term.

Some people can run a mile in 5:30 without training, train, and then run 5:10. Some runners run 5:30 without training, train, and then run 4:10. You just really can’t tell until he develops, but like I said, the genes seem to be there! Sub 5:00 by the end of this season sounds like a good goal, and is an excellent time for a freshman.

Having worked with a number of kids there is no assured for your son. Have had one young man come to me and his first 800m was 2:16 and after 4 years 1:49. Your son will need to have a good coach and the training environment will need to be supportive one. Good luck to him.

CopperRunner wrote:

Some people can run a mile in 5:30 without training, train, and then run 5:10. Some runners run 5:30 without training, train, and then run 4:10.

+1.

It's a total crapshoot; Jim Ryun ran a 5:38 mile as an untrained sophomore but then became the first HSer to run sub 4:

2:22 800 last weekend. A lot left in tank again. Kid still learning how to race.

Sub 5 in a couple more races? No. Sub 5 within 3 months? Probably. The 27 flyings 2s sound pretty good. He could get down to 4:40s by the end of high school. Probably 4:30s and maybe 4:20s, but only time will tell.

I assume he's a freshman in high school? I think he will easily go sub-5 this season and will probably run really fast in future track seasons.