Is NAU Good or Lucky?

they’ve won four of the past five national championships. that is not luck at all.

Delete this thread pls.

Hey, I think NAU is "good" and Mike Smith knows what he is doing. I started the thread because some of my buddies think they are just lucky...

They're good, though I could understand the argument that it gets easier to win after doing so for so long. They don't struggle to bring in big recruits with that many Nattys.

I don't know. On one hand they were lucky Nico chose NAU. I'm an idiotic HS coach and I think I would have managed to get Nico a top-10 finish this year by just staying the F*** out of his way. On the other hand, I have no idea of the amount of time, coaching, and patience it took to get Blaise to this point over many years. To get Blaise to be top 10 seems more like skill as a coach, rather than luck.

Pascal wrote:

I'll give you that Mike Smith seems to have done good at GTown prior to NAU, and has managed to keep everyone reasonably healthy at NAU. But seriously, without landing Nico Young and without Blaise all of sudden being a healthy runner, NAU would not have won NCAA XC. So, I think Smith got lucky landing Nico Young and got lucky that Ferro was able to finally train for a period of time without injury. Without these lucky happenstances, Notre Dame would be our National Champs.

Is NAU good or lucky?

What is it with people always wanting to take credit away from a person or a program? Losers do that. Don't be a loser.

NAU has a lot going for it for top-notch runners. History of greatness, altitude training, professional runners all around, non-rigorous academics that allows the runners to focus on running.

I don't think I'm being "a loser" by raising the question (that really was raised elsewhere)... In my opinion it's clearly fortunate that Nico chose NAU (not to discount Smith's recruiting skills). Nico would probably have finished in the top 10 today no matter where he enrolled. However, in my opinion, it is really Ferro's results that indicate solid coaching skills, rather than luck. Results like that occur over many years of work and over many difficulties.

Pascal wrote:

Hey, I think NAU is "good" and Mike Smith knows what he is doing. I started the thread because some of my buddies think they are just lucky...

You can say this about any team that win.

It's not lucky to land Nico Young. They built a program and system that made Nico pick NAU. And it was amazing that Mike got Blaise healthy. That's called good coaching. Actually it's call GREAT coaching and a commitment from the team.

No-Just NO wrote:

Pascal wrote:

Hey, I think NAU is "good" and Mike Smith knows what he is doing. I started the thread because some of my buddies think they are just lucky...

You can say this about any team that win.

It's not lucky to land Nico Young. They built a program and system that made Nico pick NAU. And it was amazing that Mike got Blaise healthy. That's called good coaching. Actually it's call GREAT coaching and a commitment from the team.

I agree.

First, there's always some luck in sport, especially from a coach's perspective. The coach of NAU isn't a puppeteer or playing foosball. His athletes can either succeed or fail and that's of their own volition. His job is to try to put his team in the best position to win, the rest is up to them.

Also, if he lost to Notre Dame he still would have come second which is a podium finish and had the best record of any college program this decade.

With NAU it was all luck. They flipped a coin that morning and it said heads. That’s the only reason they won. Recruiting, training, culture had nothing to do with it.

The Fighting Irish had no luck despite being Irish and it being so close to Saint Patrick’s Day. They recruited well, trained well, and have a great culture. It’s a shame they came in second to Luck.

Pascal wrote:

I don't think I'm being "a loser" by raising the question (that really was raised elsewhere)... In my opinion it's clearly fortunate that Nico chose NAU (not to discount Smith's recruiting skills). Nico would probably have finished in the top 10 today no matter where he enrolled. However, in my opinion, it is really Ferro's results that indicate solid coaching skills, rather than luck. Results like that occur over many years of work and over many difficulties.

There was another nationals today? Jkjk

Doing well at anything is a combination of luck and hard work. Luck obviously plays a roll, but you also have to acknowledge Mike is great at progressing athletes and he created the luck by progressing athletes well and keeping them healthy for the most part. There’s a lot more to Smiths coaching than just the workouts he writes. That being said his training is better than the majority of coaches in the US IMO because he believes in a lot more volume at work.

Pascal wrote:

I'll give you that Mike Smith seems to have done good at GTown prior to NAU, and has managed to keep everyone reasonably healthy at NAU. But seriously, without landing Nico Young and without Blaise all of sudden being a healthy runner, NAU would not have won NCAA XC. So, I think Smith got lucky landing Nico Young and got lucky that Ferro was able to finally train for a period of time without injury. Without these lucky happenstances, Notre Dame would be our National Champs.

Is NAU good or lucky?

Your post is full of "what ifs." That's the way that all sports are. If the Patriots hadn't drafted Toom Brady would they have won all of those Super Bowls? If Michael Jordan hadn't played for Chicago it is doubtful that the Bulls would have won the championships that they did. The same for LeBron James and the teams that he has played for. What if, what it, what if...

You could say the same about Notre Dame. Things probably fell in line for them that allowed them to get 2nd. What if Danny Kilrea went to NAU and Dylan Jacobs went to Oregon?

Stupid thread...

ATTITUDE AND ALTITUDE!

Is it luck doing the work?

Is it luck putting in the high mileage?

Is it luck staying healthy?

Is it luck sitting out of workouts and conference with eyes fixed on staying healthy and winning the bigger prize?

4 out of 5 XC Natty WINS!

Face it haters, There’s no such thing as luck!

Pascal wrote:

I'll give you that Mike Smith seems to have done good at GTown prior to NAU, and has managed to keep everyone reasonably healthy at NAU. But seriously, without landing Nico Young and without Blaise all of sudden being a healthy runner, NAU would not have won NCAA XC. So, I think Smith got lucky landing Nico Young and got lucky that Ferro was able to finally train for a period of time without injury. Without these lucky happenstances, Notre Dame would be our National Champs.

Is NAU good or lucky?

Is Oregon good or lucky? Without landing every top overaged high schooler, and without the great pharmaceutical program, where would they be?

Is BYU good or lucky. Without figuring out how to game the system into giving their guys eight years of eligibility, where would they be?

Teare and Hocker are not overage.

nau smartypants wrote:

Teare and Hocker are not overage.

LV, grampa ches, rupp, pepiot, maton, etc. etc. etc...

I saw a blue and gold team pick up a runner up trophy in Des Moines when Bob Kennedy won as a freshman. I wondered who the heck is Northern Arizona? They've been good for a long time. Sometimes they are great. What we don't notice or tend not to remember is the close calls. When someone couldn't come back from an injury or illness. When it was an exceptionally talented/deep field (not very year is as strong). Thebeffects of when it was 19 below zero windchill factor or Flippin too hot etc.... That one great recruit that got away and could have put you over the top even if it was by one point.....on and on and on.....

From a coaches perspective....take the hand that was dealt or what you built, improve it, get them to the starting line healthy and ready to do their best, then get the hell out of their way. No matter what, they own it. They are a team and the coach is only part of the team. Control what you can, get positive chemistry etc...and once success becomes sustainable, tradition keeps momentum going.

NAU is both good and lucky for a lot of reasons. Sometimes on the same day.