WAY too early 2021 (fall) NCAA XC predictions!

also, it was hard not to pick the young Stanford squad, as I think they'll do great next year (maybe even sneak their way onto the podium if one of the teams has an off day), but the other 4 teams just seem SO good, if they're all healthy! the girls also seem great. I'm excited to see how it plays out.

Whittni Orton is a SR.

I assume any seniors who want to come back next year can? This year didn't count, right? The question is how many will. I don't know who the Stanford women have on the bench if they lose 3 top runners.

Oregon is nowhere close to being a podium team right now.

It’s very hard to predict the fall until we know who is coming back for the extra year. Lots of key seniors on all the top teams.

As just one example, if NAU’s seniors move on (two top 10 runners), it isn’t nearly as clear that they should be the overwhelming favorite they were this year.

FastTuohy wrote:

I assume any seniors who want to come back next year can? This year didn't count, right? The question is how many will. I don't know who the Stanford women have on the bench if they lose 3 top runners.

There could also be a lot more than normal grad school kids with eligibility.

Women

Stanford

BYU

NC St

Men

NAU

BYU

ND

why? they're mid-d/d group looks great?

You're telling me that a team of Hocker (mile/3k national champion, footlocker chamption), Teare (collegiate record holder mile, 3k runner up, 6th at 2019 XC nats), Hunter (2018 XC pac12 freshman of the year, 800 national champion, sub8 3k, 3:54 mile), Brown (DMR national champion, 5th place mile), and Mestler (3rd at Pac-12s XC, individual Nationals XC qualifier) wouldn't be a great team?

University of North Carolina women should be in the Honorable Mention at least. They are getting some solid incoming freshman talent such as Brynn Brown and Masciarelli.

nevertooearly wrote:

1) NC State. I think NC State has a very talented team that could become great if they're all healthy and ready to run. Tuohy made an impact even though she was injured for a long time and I expect her to be better next year. Starliper is obviously a big question mark but I think that she has the talent and potential to be great next year for the pack. On that note, I'll take a healthy Starliper, Tuohy, Clairemonte, Chmiel, and Steelman as an unstoppable scoring 5.

Brooke Rauber could possibly crack that top 5 as well.

UNC's (women) program seems to still be developing but I think they'll get top 10 next year and top 5 the next as they get more experienced.

nevertooearly wrote:

why? they're mid-d/d group looks great?

You're telling me that a team of Hocker (mile/3k national champion, footlocker chamption), Teare (collegiate record holder mile, 3k runner up, 6th at 2019 XC nats), Hunter (2018 XC pac12 freshman of the year, 800 national champion, sub8 3k, 3:54 mile), Brown (DMR national champion, 5th place mile), and Mestler (3rd at Pac-12s XC, individual Nationals XC qualifier) wouldn't be a great team?

Yeah, I am. I think that team struggles to put 5 guys in the top 100. Incredible mid-d squad, but Mestler has never finished better than the low-70's at an NCAA meet, and Hunter and Brown are way out of their element in a xc 10k. Hunter has a couple top 16 performances at Pac-12's, but has historically fallen off quite a bit when the distance shifts from 8k to 10k. Brown finished I think 78th at NCAA's in 2017, but hasn't come close to that since and has never finished in the top 30 at a major college xc race.

NAU, Notre Dame, BYU, Oklahoma St, Arkansas and Stanford are all significantly better than Oregon in xc right now.

knees_on_borrowed_time wrote:It’s very hard to predict the fall until we know who is coming back for the extra year. Lots of key seniors on all the top teams.

As just one example, if NAU’s seniors move on (two top 10 runners), it isn’t nearly as clear that they should be the overwhelming favorite they were this year.

Agreed. It's very hard to know what the season will look like until we see who is on the roster come this September. There may be some seniors that return as grad students. There may be some that graduate and move on with their lives. The top teams will all be good as they have a lot of depth.

It is still early, but Thorvaldson has just resumed running due to stress fracture in foot

Since everyone gets another year of eligibility, we need to know which seniors decide to stay for another year, or finish after this year.

knees_on_borrowed_time wrote:

It’s very hard to predict the fall until we know who is coming back for the extra year. Lots of key seniors on all the top teams.

As just one example, if NAU’s seniors move on (two top 10 runners), it isn’t nearly as clear that they should be the overwhelming favorite they were this year.

Agreed. And I saw an interview with Blaise Ferro where it sounded like he wold not be back. If Luis moves on, then Hasty, Bosley, Quax, Raff and the freshman will have to step up.

Can Hobbs Kesler be in top 7 as freshman? I think so.

I agree with all the teams listed above.

Washington, Southern Utah, Butler and of course Iowa State will be some teams to watch out for this fall.

NC state has pretty much said that everyone's coming back

People seem to be forgetting about Savanna Shaw who is basically running the same times as Katelyn Tuohy this spring. Sam Bush and Nevada Morena are pretty strong Runners too

The real question is if BYU will get everyone back. If they do it'll really come down to which Squad is healthier

If NC state has another Runner Step Up such as Marlee starliper they have a really good chance. If both squads are equally healthy it should be really close

Whitney Orton is running amazing times so I'm sure there's a good chance she goes professional. I don't think Stanford has that much of a chance. Three strongest team should be NC State BYU and Arkansas

If every team is healthy, no one beats the lineup of Dominique, Chmiel, Starliper, Tuohy, Steelman, and Shaw!

1. NC State

2. BYU

3. Stanford

4. Mich State