NCAA Womens XC National Championships!!! Predictions, Discussion, Analysis!!!

What happened today that would make someone doubt NC State on Monday? Steelman and chmiel looked pretty strong. I'm sure they were saving it somewhat for Monday.

Henes is a fox! Steelman is really good looking too!!

Just watch the women's. DMR. NC State look pretty good. Savannah Shaw 438 1600 m. She's another Runner who could do well for them at Cross Country.

I think NC State will surprise and be on the podium Monday.

Order of finish will be Steelman, Chmiel, 90% Clairmonte, Tuohy, Shaw, Howlett, Cuarzo. There really is not a weak link in spots 4-7. Potential is also there for any 2 of the 4 to outperform and finish top 50.

Henes ran a great 5k, at the bell I thought she was going to win and was surprised Kimeli held her off. Hasz ran a perfect tactical race to nip Henes at the line for second. She avoided all the jostling and surges by always being at the back of the main pack, or lead group and closed strong the last 300m. I look forward to seeing Henes as a pro. She has improved a ton over past 18 months and has an effortless efficient stride.

It's going to come down to health for NC State. Most teams have someone who is a question mark...but NC has several. Clairmonte is the biggest x-factor ( apparently it was a non-covid virus she caught in Jan)...who knows what her conditioning will be. Tuohy is a complete unknown for 6k right now. Chmiel was well off her ACC time in the 5k...hopefully she was just running conservatively since she wasn't near the front....and doesn't have an injury.

Looks like a complete coin toss at this point.

NC State will finish 5th. Stanford will win easily with 2 in top 5. NC State's 3rd will be with Stanford's 5th.

Richer than most wrote:

NC State will finish 5th. Stanford will win easily with 2 in top 5. NC State's 3rd will be with Stanford's 5th.

What NC State needs is their 3-5 close together around 50th or so, to surprise and podium

The first part of this thread is "predictions". Does that mean you are predicting them to do that. It is pretty clear what they need to do to podium but I don't think they will. I have been saying for 6 months that Stanford will win easily. I am sticking to that. Most of you disagreed due to their spread but as predicted, it has tightened. Their top 2 appear to be top 5 runners and their 5th will finish about 70th for an easy team win. Dudek looks like the next great female NCAA runner.

You can write about anything you want here. I just figured prediction and Analysis was the most sensical way to phrase it but for all I care you can talk about the cut of the grass or the guy who's setting up the cones!

But as to predictions I definitely think people are estimating too high. If Stanford's V is 70th then I doubt they'll win. I think the winning team will score probably around 80. Because if anything I think the top teams will be more dominant in a year like this

But anyway the only teams I really know pretty well are Stanford and NC State. I definitely give Stanford the edge of the favorite. But with that said I think NC State will have a pretty good showing. They have a good chance to get three in the top 20 and possibly five in the top 35 or 40. Anyway I just don't think the winning team will be scoring really high

There are 5 really good teams. There is no way a team will go that low. NC State will have over 200 points and they will finish 5th with that. Stanford will score over 100 points.

add NM, BYU if they have Orton, and Arkansas if they elect to compete. I agree winning score will likely be well over 100 points. 200 or so gets you on podium.

I wonder if Colorado will be a factor in the race? Rachel McArthur has run well and could be top 10 and then maybe a pack in the top 30-50 range?

ncaa21 wrote:

I wonder if Colorado will be a factor in the race? Rachel McArthur has run well and could be top 10 and then maybe a pack in the top 30-50 range?

I see their pack a little further back. But hey, I thought A&M had today's meet won.

PL Team Total Time Avg. Time Score 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1 Arkansas 1:42:27 20:29 96 3 4 16 21 52 57 142

2 BYU 1:42:49 20:33 102 5 6 7 41 43 80 125

3 Stanford 1:43:19 20:39 123 8 11 20 38 46 69 158

4 New Mexico 1:43:12 20:38 168 1 9 27 40 91 170 189

5 North Carolina St. 1:44:11 20:50 190 10 17 39 49 75 100

Here's the scoring from 2019. It was actually a fairly high scoring year. 90% of the time the top team scores under a hundred. Stanford should do significantly better. One through five should all move up about Five Points each! If they're over a hundred they're going to be barely over a hundred

NC State should be way up to from where they were. Unless people are just sick or injured they should easily break 150

I'd love to put some money on the winner being under 125 and NC State being under 200

You are probably correct but not by much. I say 110 for Stanford and about 200 for NC State.

Let's Do This! wrote:

90% of the time the top team scores under a hundred.

Since 1996, only 11 of the winning teams have scored under 100.

coach d. wrote:

Let's Do This! wrote:

90% of the time the top team scores under a hundred.

Since 1996, only 11 of the winning teams have scored under 100.

Five of the past six Champions have scored under a hundred! Including a 60 point 2 years ago!

From 1980 to 2000, 18 out of the 20 teams scored 101 or lower... which is 90%!

But to make you happy I'll amend my statement and say 83% in recent history have gone below a hundred!

Women 6k Team Results (6k )Top↑

PL Team Total Time Avg. Time Score 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1 Colorado 1:40:36 20:07 65 1 8 14 20 22 26 63

2 New Mexico 1:41:07 20:13 103 2 5 9 38 49 60 102

3 Oregon 1:42:10 20:26 160 3 12 27 46 72 77 85

4 Michigan 1:43:27 20:41 213 25 33 40 53 62 73 79

5 Stanford 1:43:09 20:37 232 11 16 39 76 90 184 211

6 Boise State 1:43:55 20:47 288 6 34 70 82 96 128 142

7 BYU 1:44:01 20:48 310 7 21 67 98 117 129 134

8 Notre Dame 1:44:07 20:49 313 10 32 54 66 151 185 190

9 Washington 1:44:19 20:51 321 17 29 58 81 136 154 178

10 Wisconsin 1:44:16 20:51 325 4 57 84 89 91 194 208

2018 results! Seven of the top 10 finishers last year were seniors and are out of the picture. And about half of the top 40 were also seniors

If Stanford is healthy they should kill it and score well under a hundred. If NC State is healthy they should break 150

Also why 1996? If you want to correct me just give the number don't pick an arbitrary year to try to prove a point which doesn't really exist!

Only four winners have ever scored over 125. So 90% of the winners have been under 125 which people some reason think will be this year's winner

So yeah it was a bit of an exaggeration considering I was just speaking extemporaneously, but not by much about 80% of the teams have been right around a hundred or below