Can someone become a Trillionaire if he can accurately predict the Forex/Stock market every single time?

Most importantly... will he/she get kidnapped? :D

Theoretically... Yes. But you would need a significant amount of size to actually make the trades to get to a trillon.

Let's say Bezos liquidated all of his stock in Amazon and just had $184 billion sitting in his trading account.

He could theoretically set up an entire company dedicated to high frequency trading which I would assume would be very very profitable. With $184 billion at his disposal, he could literally move the market.

Do you know anyone who is making a living doing Forex? >$100,000

In Forex trading a Risk Reward ratio of 1:3 is quite common but the problem is predicting

it accurately for even 3-5 times in a row. So Lets say you have a balance of 100,000 and you

decided to invest everything and compound it. It takes 12 times without a miss to become a Trilliaonaire. But it wont be so simple for sure due to various restrictions on brokers and what not... wondering if some traders out here can provide their views on this............

Balance $100,000

1 400,000

2 1,600,000

3 6,400,000

4 25,600,000

5 102,400,000

6 409,600,000

7 1,638,400,000

8 6,553,600,000

9 26,214,400,000

10 104,857,600,000

11 419,430,400,000

12 1,677,721,600,000

Many years ago I took a programming/investing online class - it was a lot of fun.

One student put together an algorithm that traded "perfectly" everyday in the SP500 over the previous 12(?) months. Meaning, using historical data, this program retroactively choose to "buy" a stock on days it would go up and short stocks on a day that it would go down.

I don't think he included trading costs, taxes, implicit costs, etc. but when he graphed out the portfolio value over the 12(?) month time period, the rate of increase was incredible, like turning $100 into many million (really wish I had taken a screen shot of this graph).

To replicate this kind of performance going forward would be nearly(?) impossible(?) - that is, making 500 daily buy/sell decisions on 500 stocks correctly for a year - but I have no doubt one trillion dollars could be reached.

Government seizure withstanding obviously - your State is not here to promote your prosperity - they are here to take it.

If you could see a stock chart's price action even five minutes into the future, for even a single stock, you could become a trilionaire in a day. The authorities would shut you down, though.

There has to be an upper limit - at some point your moves would affect the price to the point where you can only break even. Like you buy low, but your order is so big it corrects the market, and now you’re buying at break even.

samesame wrote:

There has to be an upper limit - at some point your moves would affect the price to the point where you can only break even. Like you buy low, but your order is so big it corrects the market, and now you’re buying at break even.

Yes and no. You will not be able to invest 10 billion in one opportunity. But you can invest 100m in 100 opportunities. Your rate of return will drop as you grow (instead of the 10 best opportunities you will need to do a 1000) but you will still be making money.

ddidididid wrote:

samesame wrote:

There has to be an upper limit - at some point your moves would affect the price to the point where you can only break even. Like you buy low, but your order is so big it corrects the market, and now you’re buying at break even.

Yes and no. You will not be able to invest 10 billion in one opportunity. But you can invest 100m in 100 opportunities. Your rate of return will drop as you grow (instead of the 10 best opportunities you will need to do a 1000) but you will still be making money.

Yeah - and if you continue that you’ll get to the end. The point where the price is whatever you say it is and you just break even.

samesame wrote:

ddidididid wrote:

Yes and no. You will not be able to invest 10 billion in one opportunity. But you can invest 100m in 100 opportunities. Your rate of return will drop as you grow (instead of the 10 best opportunities you will need to do a 1000) but you will still be making money.

Yeah - and if you continue that you’ll get to the end. The point where the price is whatever you say it is and you just break even.

I don't think so. The forex market is like 6 trillion/day. You could siphon off a say a billion/day without affecting the market AND monetary supply is growing fast enough that you would corner the market on cash. At some point (say when your worth 10trillion), 1b/day isnt going to be giving you great returns.

For reference companies like vanguard and black rock have 5+ trillion dollars of AUM. The norweign pension fund is up over a trillion. One entity controlling a trillion isn't an issue. There will be some limit but it is going to be well above 1 trillion

I think I'd rather be a billionaire.

Trading option contracts allows you to earn very large profits (or losses) with a small amount of capital. You could literally double your money most days if you knew precisely how the market would change within a given day

If you could see the stock chart a day in advance, and perfectly time every gyration of the chart, you could make a trillion in a day. The reason this doesn’t happen is because no one can reliably predict the stock chart.

Looks like ~$200 billion in equities traded in the US today unless I'm reading the chart wrong:

https://www.cboe.com/us/equities/market_share/market/

It would be tough to make a trillion in a few days without it being very very obvious and moving markets.

If you're willing to do it over a year, probably no issues.

Internetsherlock wrote:

In Forex trading a Risk Reward ratio of 1:3 is quite common but the problem is predicting

it accurately for even 3-5 times in a row. So Lets say you have a balance of 100,000 and you

decided to invest everything and compound it. It takes 12 times without a miss to become a Trilliaonaire. But it wont be so simple for sure due to various restrictions on brokers and what not... wondering if some traders out here can provide their views on this............

Balance $100,000

1 400,000

2 1,600,000

3 6,400,000

4 25,600,000

5 102,400,000

6 409,600,000

7 1,638,400,000

8 6,553,600,000

9 26,214,400,000

10 104,857,600,000

11 419,430,400,000

12 1,677,721,600,000

Haha this is absurd. Did you google this?

I trade for a living. I trade 15 markets.

Majority of traders do not risk more than 1-3% of their account per trade. Day traders, risk even less, usually 0.25-0.5% because they trade multiple times a day and fees of moving in and out and liquidity becomes and issue if size is too big.

So say you’re 100,000k account. You are risking 1%. That is your R. With a 1:3R (Risk to reward ratio) If you win the trade you are rewarded 3R ($3000). If you lose you -$1000. Play that out with a 50% win rate. That’s a fantastic statistical edge. Typically though, the higher the win rate, the lower the RR ratio and high RR lower win rate. Choose your poison.

No trader bets their entire account as suggested.

No it is not possible. Liquidity is a HUGE issue. That’s why even the best hedge funds only do 30-40% a year. Small retail traders can do 150%+. If you have a few million you can trade in and out repeatedly. Billions? No, you’ll move the market and entry and exit prices will be all over the place killing your profit margins.

Billionaire ? Yeah sure there are a few, George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, Jim Simons. These guy run big hedge funds and are more position traders. Large macro outlooks. They have billions.

Retail traders Millions? Yes absolutely.