Molly Seidel is an Olympic Medal Threat -1:08:29 Half PB

59° and a dew point of 58°. Brutal? I'll agree with you that sweat isn't drying (and cooling) but the air is already cool.

Where does this rank her on the all-time US list now?

And that's very impressive. Altitude training in Flagstaff seems to be working well for her.

Moreso than the weather, the course looks pretty slow -- like the kind of thing you do when the roads aren't plowed.

She’s the real deal. Happy to see her back up her Olympic spot with some good results the past few months ??

She is a fierce competitor that should not be taken for granted. We had a child attending Notre Dame at the same time Molly was there so I've been following her career for a long time. 1:08:59 (particularly not during a peak buildup) is pretty impressive. It is interesting how some athletes that have suffered historically from injuries are benefiting from long, steady buildups during COVID. On the YouTube race highlights video she doesn't even seem to be working hard at 5:15 pace

Do the women's Olympic marathons tend to be faster with 2:20 pace from the gun or do they tend to be 15 to 20 miles with everyone in a huge pack than a race to the finish? You would think that if you were a top Kenyan or Ethiopian runner with a sub 2:20 PR that it would be in your best interests to break the race open from the gun. Same would be true for sub 2:05 men. I haven't watched or remember many of the recent Olympic marathon races but how do they generally proceed?

Link to the youtube video please?

Not a chance that she competes for a medal. Purrier, KS and Hooolihan are out best bets.

Great result. It was so humid, the track was wet. I wonder if this means the Puma super shoe is competitive or if she can go even quicker in a proven brand

wazzu1452 wrote:

Not a chance that she competes for a medal. Purrier, KS and Hooolihan are out best bets.

1) When did 57 degrees become brutal conditions? I saw the post by the OP and thought it must be from her publicist.

2) I told Jonathan Gault earlier this week, we have one medal contender in the women's marathon - Sally Kipyego.

3) I am pleased to see Molly Seidel doing so well. She's clearly going to be a force on the US scene for w hile. She continues to impress me. That being said, at best she'd be at best the 10th best woman on the start line. You'd have 3 Ethipoians, 3 Kenyans a couple of Japanese and the other sub-2:20 women like Salpeter (2:17:45), JOhannes (2:19:52) who are all way better than her.

Now could Seidel medal? I guess because there are only 3 ethiopians and Kenyans allowed , anything is possible, particularly since they haven't historically always picked the best teams. Plus is there a chance some runners want to skip out after not being paid in 2020?

And the real wild card is it's going to be hot. So do we know who is good at hot weather?

But high 50s is not brutal conditions.

The marathon is tricky. You never know. Did anyone predict Sara Hall's 2nd place finish in London?

If Molly stays happy and healthy, anything is possible. She's been in the hot seat her entire running career and will be ready. We have no idea re. Sally or Aliphine's fitness at this point.

68:30 would be a good split. It isn't a race result that screams 2:18.

Bit of a tangent, I find Salpeter a bit suspicious.

Strange progression across distances through the years and also doesn't come across as very bright (had that mis-count of laps in a track event - cant remember which) and the 3x 10,000m events I've seen her run in person, she's gone out way too hard and blown up each time. Obviously she's got some achievements but not being the brightest could lead to being coaxed into some questionable decisions..

*before posting this I tried to look up some interviews to dissuade myself and in her interview on World Athletics' YouTube account, she talks about "doing 1K loops in the park, so if I want to run 10K I have to run 5 loops". Maybe a language barrier, maybe not

My mistake on the 'brutal conditions.' I saw that it was in Atlanta with 100% humidity, and assumed the dew point was at least mid 60s. Not the case, but still a notable performance imo.

She has shown herself able to handle a tough course with her results at the trials. She also placed 6th at London in her second marathon. I hope conditions are actually brutal in Tokyo; I think she'll do well.

When you do your Olympic preview for the women's marathon, she won't be in the first or second tier. But, you will have her as a wild card, and rightfully so. Then who knows, maybe if she doesn't medal, that changes a few years later depending on who is ahead of her.

World Athletics website has listed it with UNC after it and not changed her PB. Does that mean it was downhill?

If she is in the top 10 contenders, she is a medal threat because of the unpredictability of the marathon, ESPECIALLY the Olympic marathon.

I was there. Wasn’t the worst race conditions ever in Atlanta (peachtree is usually pretty rough) but it definitely was tough conditions. Very humid and got warm quickly. Wasn’t quite “brutal” but not at all ideal.

More impressive to me though is how she handled the hills and u-turns. It’s Atlanta so you know it’s hilly (ask anybody who ran the trials about Atlanta hills) but the hill after mile 7 was insanely steep. Props to her for attacking it and not slowing down. That hill would break most of the trolls on this site.

She’s a medal threat in my eyes. Good luck Molly!

rojo wrote:

wazzu1452 wrote:

Not a chance that she competes for a medal. Purrier, KS and Hooolihan are out best bets.

2) I told Jonathan Gault earlier this week, we have one medal contender in the women's marathon - Sally Kipyego.

I know on history, Sally Kipyego theoretically could medal. However, I think she's on the wrong side of her career and I just don't see her being a contender. I don't happen to think Molly Seidel has a chance for a medal in Tokyo either. One factor that could help her though is the heat. Seidel is tiny. Smaller runners tolerate the heat much better, and clearly Seidel does. The temperature in Kenya and Ethiopia also rarely gets above 80 F. Daily mean temperature for Sapporo in August is 72 F. Record high is 97 F. It could be hot, and that helps Seidel. Realistically though, I think a top 10 somewhere along the lines of Shalane and Kara in London in 2012 is possible.

hoy-yes wrote:

The marathon is tricky. You never know. Did anyone predict Sara Hall's 2nd place finish in London?

If Molly stays happy and healthy, anything is possible. She's been in the hot seat her entire running career and will be ready. We have no idea re. Sally or Aliphine's fitness at this point.

Incorrect. We know Aliphine's fitness. We know exactly. NAZ posts every day's training. I was just looking at them last night. I check it out weekly for an idea of the whole program and progression of workouts. She is completely unfit. I am surprised you don't know this. This is not news.

Sally may be fit. Like Rupp, she seems to be under the impression that she is a contender. Also like Rupp, she is not. There were 2 Americans ahead of her last time she raced. A few more within seconds behind. Doesn't seem to realize there will be runners other than those in the race. Can she beat Desi Linden? Maybe. It was close last time around. She really has a shot if she gets to pick the competitors herself.

OK, I did not phrase my comment re. Aliphine correctly. I know she just had a baby and is going to start running soon. I meant more like what is her potential in the summer. We have no idea how she will progress in training coming back after baby. She could be great, or go through what Sally did coming back from baby (not good.)

Sally runs a race soon and we'll know more.