Billionaire investor and chess player Peter Thiel predicts cities like NYC and SF are likely done for good

In NYC Metro are 18,351,295 people. They are not going anywhere anytime soon.

Bangladeshi ueber driver wrote:

In NYC Metro are 18,351,295 people. They are not going anywhere anytime soon.

Here you go-

(more people you have) * (given rate of leaving metro area) = higher number of people leaving per unit of time.

January 1, 1968

By JOHN V. LINDSAY

Mayor, New York City

The urban crisis grips America as no other socio-economic affliction in a century and our cities can be saved only if government and the private sector become economic and operating allies in a five-year war on poverty, deterioration and despair

This is a war that America must not be too proud to fight. There can be no domestic tranquility and no peace of the national conscience until it is won. There must be total national commitment There must be action.

The battle and its impact are not localized in the ghetto areas of our cities. The rising problems of crime and narcotics addiction, air and water pollution, mass transit, traffic congestion, and better schools are not identifiable with particular neighborhoods or even cities. They are country-wide, national headaches.

The outlook for such an unprecedented coalition to attack a domestic crisis that exists all around us is hopeful, but not overly encouraging at the moment.

This logic ignores the fact that lots of people enjoy living in major cities. Most people I know who have moved to NYC didn't do so because it was the only place they could find a decent job. Most of them did so because they wanted to be in NYC. Offering the opportunity to work remotely wouldn't cause them to leave the city, because they actually want to be in the city.

In fact, many people take worse jobs or lower pay to live in NYC. For example, physician pay in NYC is exceptionally low. So many doctors want to live in New York that the pay has been bid down to way below national and regional averages. None of these people were forced to move to NYC because jobs. They could all flee to the rural Midwest and increase their salaries by 50% today if they wanted to. They stay because they want to be in NYC.

The whole "technology will empty out the cities" argument has been made for years. But if this was true, why hasn't it happened already? All the technology necessary to work remotely has existed for years now. I video chatted with my friends when I was in high school. If everyone wanted to leave the cities and work remotely, what was stopping them from doing so in 2010 that has changed since?

people like NYC wrote:

The whole "technology will empty out the cities" argument has been made for years. But if this was true, why hasn't it happened already? All the technology necessary to work remotely has existed for years now. I video chatted with my friends when I was in high school. If everyone wanted to leave the cities and work remotely, what was stopping them from doing so in 2010 that has changed since?

Because there wasn't a pandemic forcing them to learn how to telecommute. Your exact question was addressed in the linked podcast.

Forgiven wrote:

people like NYC wrote:

The whole "technology will empty out the cities" argument has been made for years. But if this was true, why hasn't it happened already? All the technology necessary to work remotely has existed for years now. I video chatted with my friends when I was in high school. If everyone wanted to leave the cities and work remotely, what was stopping them from doing so in 2010 that has changed since?

Because there wasn't a pandemic forcing them to learn how to telecommute. Your exact question was addressed in the linked podcast.

So everyone really, really wants to telecommute, but they waited to try it until they were forced to do so? People don't usually have to be forced to do something that they want to do.

50 years ago, "futurists" claimed that by 2020, jetpacks would replace automobiles and we would fly around with nuclear propulsion strapped to our backs.

That 15-hour work week, where is it ?

The stigma around being a telecommuter and not being as dedicated to your position or career is removed when everyone is doing it. I can telecommute and still make partner? Well this is a better work life balance, maybe I do want to, maybe I can move to a LCOL area too.

people like NYC wrote:

Forgiven wrote:

Because there wasn't a pandemic forcing them to learn how to telecommute. Your exact question was addressed in the linked podcast.

So everyone really, really wants to telecommute, but they waited to try it until they were forced to do so?

Yes, that's exactly what happens. New collective trends start with catalysts. People move to less expensive places with room for a home office, people buy new desks and monitors, companies figure out how to operate remotely. That doesn't just disappear when the pandemic is over. Again, just listen to the podcast if you are interested.

And chess player put it over the top for credibility.

If he actually made a specific prediction, I would bet against him. Cities will have a 5 year lull then everybody will realize that remote just doesn't work as well. The people who make partner will be the ones in the office 4+ days a week, then everybody will move back to the cities.

Sounds like wishful thinking from someone hoping to swoop in and buy big city real estate at a discounted price.

Frisco should be the capitol of a new country which includes Utah, Arizona, Nevada, and California.

Many corporate companies not renewing their leases and with cut utility costs are saving big bucks by following Covid fear mongering regulations with workers telecommuting.

You think Amazon messed up by investing in building HQ2 outside of DC?

Ace_of_Base wrote:

I can telecommute and still make partner?

Personally, I think a bunch of people are about to find out that's not the case (especially for something like making partner that requires a ton of political capital).

I think work from home isn't necessarily "you're not dedicated" so much as it is "you're not going anywhere." It's always been a one way ticket to a dead end on the career ladder. Maybe that'll change

This sounds great. Then maybe I can afford to live there. Bigger fan of the look and feel SF. But NYC also has great arts, culture, music, etc. Tough call!

Big cities are the hallmark of civilisation. I would enjoy living in the middle of nowhere, but I'm old now. If i was 20 something, my first choice would living in a big city.

people like NYC wrote:

The whole "technology will empty out the cities" argument has been made for years. But if this was true, why hasn't it happened already? All the technology necessary to work remotely has existed for years now. I video chatted with my friends when I was in high school. If everyone wanted to leave the cities and work remotely, what was stopping them from doing so in 2010 that has changed since?

Video calls are not the only requirment to operating a business remotely lol. Companies like MS are still rapidly trying to improve the work from home experience to get it where it needs to be.

The biggest thing that's held companies back I think is that switching to full remote would have been a massive gamble 1 year ago. The pandemic basically forced everyone into a trial run, and it's been successful so I would bet you will see a huge and permanent increase in the amount of remote businesses moving forward. We've made the switch for good and are now selling our office. Only problem is it will be on the market for ages because so many other businesses are doing the same thing.