Are peoples head in the sand about the looming economic catostrophe?

jamin wrote:

Knuckledragger wrote:

Who are we borrowing our own money from?

What?

You are a user of money. The government is a issuer of money. The federal government does not need your taxes to fund itself. Your federal taxes just get thrown out in order to fight inflation.

So think about it real hard. The government is not a household like you are that has to budget itself. The government uses fiat currency. Since it can make money on it's own how can it ever owe Money to itself? All the deficit is is a historical record of the extra money spent into the economy. That's it.

Knuckledragger wrote:

Ol Dirty Hog wrote:

As Congress has inflated the dollar throughout the pandemic creating an additional 1/3 of currency in circulation, what have the Chinese done with the Yuan? Nothing and just sat back and watch out economy destroy itself.

Where is the inflation?

Housing market. We are headed for European style home prices, where 100 year mortgages are the norm, and vast majority of people will never afford a house.

Stu...Stu Padaso wrote:

Housing market. We are headed for European style home prices, where 100 year mortgages are the norm, and vast majority of people will never afford a house.

Abolish single family zoning in every city nationwide.

A big problem is that we've sold generations of homeowners on the idea that their house is an investment. This has created perverse incentives in local land use politics all around the country.

So what should I do?

anonamoose2222 wrote:

Curious, alot of white collar people I know dont seem to be phased about the economy.

There is zero chance that this whole situation wont materialize into a crisis that hits them. Massive white collar layoffs and paycuts, home foreclosures, IRA raiding, and asset impairments are simply unavoidable within the next 2 years.

They seem to not understand how spending multipliers work in society or that big companies can and do go bankrupt.

Furthermore alot of people think that peoples consumption habits are not forever changed.

At a very obvious level, lots of people are going to succumb to lifelong depression, depressed people participate little in the economy.

All these issues are real, but the horizon is much further out. Over the last 12 years we've seen incredible fiscal and monetary stimulus used to pump up the economy. The last 12 months in particular. The fact is the bill will come due eventually. But until then, policymakers will simply keep spending to avoid the collapse.

There are bubbles in every asset class. And they will all pop. We're talking stocks trading well above dot-com era valuations. Homes well above housing crisis valuations. And all kinds of other assets at ridiculous valuations (art, trading cards, etc). It will all pop. The government will step in with $5tn+ stimulus bills and enact foreclosure moratoriums to ease the damage. Which will make the bubble even bigger. That's why the horizon is much longer out. You are correct, it will pop in the next two years. But policymakers will shove another stimulus bill through and block foreclosures and evictions.

Take a look at the Greece default case study as the future of America. Unsustainable pension? Check. Too much debt? Check. Not enough revenue? Well, we could easily raise taxes to help, but politicians lack the stones to do it. So, that's that. I recommend leaving the country. My daughter leaves the house in 7 years. Then I'm leaving the country. At some point in the next 30 years tax rates will be 70% for the bottom rate and 95% for the highest earners. I won't be here to pay it. It could have been avoided with smarter fiscal policy. But too late now. The future of America will be stimulus after stimulus to stave off another crisis caused by the previous stimulus.

It's funny how a tiny virus that has killed 500k people out of a population of 340m took down America. When you put it that perspective it doesn't seem like all the lock downs were worth it, huh?

Most of the economy is made of vapor. Everything essential will still exist if and when it collapses.

The only difference will be who does well in an essentials economy, and who does not. A lot of the exploiters will become the exploited.

i.e., in an economy of heads in the sand, sell shovels and you'll do great.

While logic and some numbers tell us that things will be tough, you need to remember that the game is rigged and America will be ok.! Always bet on our markets to go long!

It's gonna be fun to watch. I'll sit over here in my country that's mostly dodged the pandemic. Enjoy.

sbeefyk2 wrote:

Take a look at the Greece default case study as the future of America. Unsustainable pension? Check. Too much debt? Check. Not enough revenue? Well, we could easily raise taxes to help, but politicians lack the stones to do it. So, that's that. I recommend leaving the country. My daughter leaves the house in 7 years. Then I'm leaving the country. At some point in the next 30 years tax rates will be 70% for the bottom rate and 95% for the highest earners. I won't be here to pay it. It could have been avoided with smarter fiscal policy. But too late now. The future of America will be stimulus after stimulus to stave off another crisis caused by the previous stimulus.

Dunno, we weren't all buying all the latest and greatest tech from Greece. Or half the world airplanes. Or whatever.

The US economy is many times more diverse and strong than Greece.

I would imagine we can handle significantly more debt before we run into issues.

But I'll take your bet on two years to a pop. How much?

im a psychic wrote:

It’s going to be a two part hit. Consumption is down and is going to stay low. I’ve realized you don’t need to eat out 3 times a week, you don’t need to buy a lot of stuff and social activities are over rated. It’s better to stay home.

The bigger time bomb is housing. Evictions and foreclosures are stayed . Tenants are way behind in rent. Landlords don’t have the money to pay mortgages and property taxes . When the moratorium ends the Bubble collapses. Plus. Businesses now realize they can operate with a lot less space. Commercial rents are already nosediving.

Well commercial property valuation really only affects realtors and people that own these properties. The companies that lease these properties aren’t going away they are going be using a slightly smaller footprint. This will open up more sites for new businesses.

As far as social activities being overrated, that’s just a personal view point, that is shared by some people, but most people crave the social interaction that they get from bars and restaurants, even in a pandemic. Heck, the screaming about bars and restaurants closing or even having limited seating was the single most vocal complaint about businesses affected by the virus.

Nothing about the stock market or debt is actually real. It’s numbers in a computer. No other animal species uses currency, we made it up. And we buy into it and it works. But it has no basis in reality.

im a psychic wrote:

It’s going to be a two part hit. Consumption is down and is going to stay low. I’ve realized you don’t need to eat out 3 times a week, you don’t need to buy a lot of stuff and social activities are over rated. It’s better to stay home.

The bigger time bomb is housing. Evictions and foreclosures are stayed . Tenants are way behind in rent. Landlords don’t have the money to pay mortgages and property taxes . When the moratorium ends the Bubble collapses. Plus. Businesses now realize they can operate with a lot less space. Commercial rents are already nosediving.

There is some truth to this. There has been a major paradigm shift with things like remote work, zoom education, etc. Remote work is here to stay, and that alone is going to cut down on expenditures a good amount just from people not driving as much. People will stay home more, which also causes them to buy more online relative to at brick and mortar stores in their own town. I have been a grad student since January, and I have gone onto campus TWICE so far this semester (outside of going to the gym to lift weights). People don't need to drive, they don't need to buy parking passes, they don't need to buy gas, they don't need to stop at Starbucks each morning, etc.

What I see happening is the investor class of America seems to be rolling along as normal and even increasing their wealth, while those who are less than that are getting steam-rolled. I know people who are months behind on their bills. The Pandemic has actually helped me financially, a lot!

Economy will boom. you are all dumbfiicks. USA is reserve currency and if we fail the whole world fails. Too much is riding on us so we'll be fine.

You're completely wrong. We are on the verge of an absolute economic boom, because the pandemic will be defeated by mass vaccination in mere months, while government stimulus is on the way and already starting to have an effect and there is a lot of savings built up recently that will be spent in the next couple of years. After the Spanish Flu, we had a rapid return to rapid growth.

Biden’s advisors are all parroting the talking points from Stephanie Kelton’s book The Deficit Myth. She’s advocating for the Modern Monetary Theory, an “experimental” theory that states deficits and debt don’t matter if a government has its own currency and can continue to print money and control interest rates. There’s not a single legitimate economist that supports this theory. Even Larry Summers called it “grotesque.” But the mainstream media acts like Joe Biden is some kind of economic genius taking “bold” and “decisive” action on the economy even if it’s “risky.”

Ya”ll voted for the guy. Good luck!

AlohaState wrote:

Ya”ll voted for the guy. Good luck!

We're good. Also this Lucy with the footbal routine has no mileage left. If you only care about spending when the GOP is out of power, then you don't care about spending.

Well said!

sbeefyk2 wrote:

Take a look at the Greece default case study as the future of America.

Greece does not have its own currency. This means...

1. No independent monetary policy. Their monetary policy is determined by the European Central Bank.

2. No independent fiscal policy. (Because they cannot borrow in their own currency.)

3. No ability to adjust external imbalance by devaluation. (The value of Euro depends on the economy of the whole Euro Area. Greece is too small to have much of an impact.)

FRB can set its own monetary policy. The US can borrow in its own currency. And the dollar can be devalued to adjust the external imbalance. There is no parallel between Greece and the US.

How am I supposed to do this if I am a NEET with no job?