Armstronglivs wrote:
noticer of stupidity wrote:
The Nutjob Forum? That's a perfect new location for you. Bye bye. and good riddance.
Yet, here you are.
Well yes Timmy. This is the forum for the regular people. You'll always find me here.
Armstronglivs wrote:
noticer of stupidity wrote:
The Nutjob Forum? That's a perfect new location for you. Bye bye. and good riddance.
Yet, here you are.
Well yes Timmy. This is the forum for the regular people. You'll always find me here.
Harambe wrote:
Lead Foil Hat wrote:
Clearly, people disagreeing with the manner with which numbers are reported or the accurate nature of those numbers is only the realm of crazy conspiracy believing scientists and doctors....science is no longer allowed to be scrutinized says harambe, the man whose only purpose here is to hype covid to boost his stock earning. The man is a con already having admitted on other threads to have made 2 million of of covid last year. Disgraceful. All while demanding evidence without showing evidence. Where is the real evidence for 500,000 excess deaths? Why on Earth was the threshold of expected deaths idiotically lowered for 2020; this is the main reason for the high assumption of "excess". Mostly you just declare your assumptions truth until people provide evidence otherwise. So, I will make the assumption that the threshold of expected deaths is way too low and that that is a significant source of the 'excess' in 2020. Also, I will assume the covid tests are not accurate and grossly overestimate the actual numbers of cases and hence deaths. Then I will also assume the lockdowns killed more people than the virus. Now, like harambe, I will declare myself right until he proves me wrong with real data containing studies, not assumptive models. In the end, we may both be way off but at least I am not cheering on death and chaos to makes bank in the stock market. Lying scumbags like yourself have ruined the lives of 100s of millions with no remorse. It is shameful.
I've posted the CDC link dozens of times. Nobody has ever given me a reason to doubt their tabulation of excess deaths. Still waiting!
Here it is again:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Yes, you post a link....then make your own assumptions declaring them truth even if not in line with the link, which is still just a set of assumptions. There were not even 500000 more deaths in 2020 than 2019, so how does one arrive at 500000 excess deaths? You would do everyone better if you just outed yourself and gave us the stocks you are gaming by covid hyping. Please, just share the insight and give up the covid game. ,To your alter ego in this stock pumping game, you just have to look at the 'expected' deaths line for 2020; despite deaths increasing each year for a decade now, the 2020 numbers each week are lower than for 2019 and 2018. Also, I am not saying there are not a lot of true covid deaths nor excess deaths, more that the 500,000 is a gross overestimate not supported by actual increases in deaths above the already upward trajectory pushed by an aginng baby boomer bracket. It is real easy to let the assumptions skew the numbers massively. I will say here, that I think if the cdc provided a more appropriate 2020 estimation of expected deaths and we had actually only used effective testing limited to patients with covid symptoms, then we would likely only be talking of maybe 50-150,000 deaths from covid right now. You can even believe the numbers are skewed high, and others can believe they are skewed low. The data and the policies of testing/reporting and assumptions used to create baseline really make "excess deaths" an ineffective indicator of any solid truth....it is still mostly assumptions and opinion. The only difference is you, harambe, have admitted already to making 2 million of of covid....so your opinion is biased. I made no extra gains off the pandemic, but am frustrated as I watch so much get ruined by perpetuating efforts that should have just been the "2 weeks".
knee jerk reactivity metric wrote:
Harambe wrote:
Wow!? What is the sudden source of pollution that killed 500k more people than expected since January 2020??!!
It doesn't have to be a sudden source of pollution. The effects of previous years exposure to pollution in a patient with COPD is cumulative is it not?
Then why did it manifest suddenly as 400k excess deaths? There must be some reason for the discontinuity. COVID is an excellent explanation. I would want to see evidence of environment causes... lots of evidence.
Star wrote:
Star wrote:
Hate to say it, but it was a bigger deal when the number hit 3,000.
Now every new hundred thousand dead is just noise.
I think this thread has proven my point.
People either aren't worked up about or aren't believing this 500,000 number.
I’m losing faith in humanity. 500K dead Americans in a year from covid is a huge number.
Care to follow up LFH? Why on Earth was the threshold of expected deaths idiotically lowered for 2020; this is the main reason for the high assumption of "excess" Will the statement just disappear into the past like so many of your other baseless claims? I am trying to reach a reasonable consensus here. No hype, no exaggeration, just something everyone can agree on.
2600 bro wrote:
One GLARING difference. Harambe posts raw data from multiple sources - you just "assume."
Show me that the baseline death rate for 2020 was moved sufficiently lower for 100,000s of deaths? Or even moved lower at all?
Go to the CDC dashboard here:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboardThe "line" for 2020 excess death threshold is not visibly different from 2017/18/19. If you have evidence of such renormalization PLEASE PLEASE post it. I would love to see it!
Until then I am going to use the data I can find!
Lead Foil Hat wrote:
Clearly, people disagreeing with the manner with which numbers are reported or the accurate nature of those numbers is only the realm of crazy conspiracy believing scientists and doctors....science is no longer allowed to be scrutinized says harambe, the man whose only purpose here is to hype covid to boost his stock earning. The man is a con already having admitted on other threads to have made 2 million of of covid last year. Disgraceful. All while demanding evidence without showing evidence. Where is the real evidence for 500,000 excess deaths? Why on Earth was the threshold of expected deaths idiotically lowered for 2020; this is the main reason for the high assumption of "excess". Mostly you just declare your assumptions truth until people provide evidence otherwise. So, I will make the assumption that the threshold of expected deaths is way too low and that that is a significant source of the 'excess' in 2020. Also, I will assume the covid tests are not accurate and grossly overestimate the actual numbers of cases and hence deaths. Then I will also assume the lockdowns killed more people than the virus. Now, like harambe, I will declare myself right until he proves me wrong with real data containing studies, not assumptive models. In the end, we may both be way off but at least I am not cheering on death and chaos to makes bank in the stock market. Lying scumbags like yourself have ruined the lives of 100s of millions with no remorse. It is shameful.
born again judeochristianmsulim wrote:
Lol. "multiple sources"
OMG. It's like idiot feeding idiot.
I know, and it is so unfair! I mean, after you post such in depth and well supported, peer reviewed, double blind academic studies like the one in your post.
Geez!
Your posts are worth every bit of the five or so seconds you put into writing, if not more!
What are they thinking?!
Lead Foil Hat wrote:
Harambe wrote:
I've posted the CDC link dozens of times. Nobody has ever given me a reason to doubt their tabulation of excess deaths. Still waiting!
Here it is again:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htmYes, you post a link....then make your own assumptions declaring them truth even if not in line with the link, which is still just a set of assumptions. There were not even 500000 more deaths in 2020 than 2019, so how does one arrive at 500000 excess deaths? You would do everyone better if you just outed yourself and gave us the stocks you are gaming by covid hyping. Please, just share the insight and give up the covid game. ,To your alter ego in this stock pumping game, you just have to look at the 'expected' deaths line for 2020; despite deaths increasing each year for a decade now, the 2020 numbers each week are lower than for 2019 and 2018. Also, I am not saying there are not a lot of true covid deaths nor excess deaths, more that the 500,000 is a gross overestimate not supported by actual increases in deaths above the already upward trajectory pushed by an aginng baby boomer bracket. It is real easy to let the assumptions skew the numbers massively. I will say here, that I think if the cdc provided a more appropriate 2020 estimation of expected deaths and we had actually only used effective testing limited to patients with covid symptoms, then we would likely only be talking of maybe 50-150,000 deaths from covid right now. You can even believe the numbers are skewed high, and others can believe they are skewed low. The data and the policies of testing/reporting and assumptions used to create baseline really make "excess deaths" an ineffective indicator of any solid truth....it is still mostly assumptions and opinion. The only difference is you, harambe, have admitted already to making 2 million of of covid....so your opinion is biased. I made no extra gains off the pandemic, but am frustrated as I watch so much get ruined by perpetuating efforts that should have just been the "2 weeks".
500,000 people have died of Covid, but they didn’t all die in 2020. 360k died of Covid in 2020. In fact, if you look at the number of Covid deaths from 2020 and the number of excess deaths from 2020 they line up quite closely. Do they lineup perfectly? No, but one shouldn’t expect things to be so simple. There were probably a bit more excess deaths than Covid deaths.
So you made a basic math mistake, and based on that accused harambe of being unethical. If I had done that I would look to be more careful in the future.
And no, I have no moderna or Pfizer stock that I know of.
What is the expected number of deaths for the next 10 years if we have an excess 500,000 deaths? I assume that it will be about 550,000 deaths each of the next 10 years to account for the excess. But I will be any amount of money that that it won't happen.
Lead Foil Hat wrote:
Yes, you post a link....then make your own assumptions declaring them truth even if not in line with the link, which is still just a set of assumptions. There were not even 500000 more deaths in 2020 than 2019, so how does one arrive at 500000 excess deaths? You would do everyone better if you just outed yourself and gave us the stocks you are gaming by covid hyping. Please, just share the insight and give up the covid game. ,To your alter ego in this stock pumping game, you just have to look at the 'expected' deaths line for 2020; despite deaths increasing each year for a decade now, the 2020 numbers each week are lower than for 2019 and 2018. Also, I am not saying there are not a lot of true covid deaths nor excess deaths, more that the 500,000 is a gross overestimate not supported by actual increases in deaths above the already upward trajectory pushed by an aginng baby boomer bracket. It is real easy to let the assumptions skew the numbers massively. I will say here, that I think if the cdc provided a more appropriate 2020 estimation of expected deaths and we had actually only used effective testing limited to patients with covid symptoms, then we would likely only be talking of maybe 50-150,000 deaths from covid right now. You can even believe the numbers are skewed high, and others can believe they are skewed low. The data and the policies of testing/reporting and assumptions used to create baseline really make "excess deaths" an ineffective indicator of any solid truth....it is still mostly assumptions and opinion. The only difference is you, harambe, have admitted already to making 2 million of of covid....so your opinion is biased. I made no extra gains off the pandemic, but am frustrated as I watch so much get ruined by perpetuating efforts that should have just been the "2 weeks".
If you look at the "yellow line" on the CDC webpage you'll see that it changes week to week and year to year. Their model is complex but you can see the line drops slightly in 2018 and 2017 like it does in 2020. I don't know why the model predicted a few thousand deaths lower baseline in those years than 2019 but it doesn't make a substantial difference.
The Economist ran their own calculations and found similar levels of excess deaths.
OWID used a simple averaging calculation for theirs and you see they see 500k deaths in the USA:
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covidBasically the CDC numbers seem to be near other groups' calculations so I'm not sure it's important to fixate on a few thousand shift.
Also the 2 million thing was a JOKE because you kept asking if I owned Moderna stock. Sheesh.
Common Cents. wrote:
Star wrote:
I think this thread has proven my point.
People either aren't worked up about or aren't believing this 500,000 number.
I’m losing faith in humanity. 500K dead Americans in a year from covid is a huge number.
"If one man dies of hunger, that is a tragedy. If millions die, that’s only statistics." -Joseph Stalin
trashcan wrote:
Lead Foil Hat wrote:
Yes, you post a link....then make your own assumptions declaring them truth even if not in line with the link, which is still just a set of assumptions. There were not even 500000 more deaths in 2020 than 2019, so how does one arrive at 500000 excess deaths? You would do everyone better if you just outed yourself and gave us the stocks you are gaming by covid hyping. Please, just share the insight and give up the covid game. ,To your alter ego in this stock pumping game, you just have to look at the 'expected' deaths line for 2020; despite deaths increasing each year for a decade now, the 2020 numbers each week are lower than for 2019 and 2018. Also, I am not saying there are not a lot of true covid deaths nor excess deaths, more that the 500,000 is a gross overestimate not supported by actual increases in deaths above the already upward trajectory pushed by an aginng baby boomer bracket. It is real easy to let the assumptions skew the numbers massively. I will say here, that I think if the cdc provided a more appropriate 2020 estimation of expected deaths and we had actually only used effective testing limited to patients with covid symptoms, then we would likely only be talking of maybe 50-150,000 deaths from covid right now. You can even believe the numbers are skewed high, and others can believe they are skewed low. The data and the policies of testing/reporting and assumptions used to create baseline really make "excess deaths" an ineffective indicator of any solid truth....it is still mostly assumptions and opinion. The only difference is you, harambe, have admitted already to making 2 million of of covid....so your opinion is biased. I made no extra gains off the pandemic, but am frustrated as I watch so much get ruined by perpetuating efforts that should have just been the "2 weeks".
500,000 people have died of Covid, but they didn’t all die in 2020. 360k died of Covid in 2020. In fact, if you look at the number of Covid deaths from 2020 and the number of excess deaths from 2020 they line up quite closely. Do they lineup perfectly? No, but one shouldn’t expect things to be so simple. There were probably a bit more excess deaths than Covid deaths.
So you made a basic math mistake, and based on that accused harambe of being unethical. If I had done that I would look to be more careful in the future.
And no, I have no moderna or Pfizer stock that I know of.
I am not the one publicly claiming on Letsrun to have turned 10k into 2 million from Covid, that is the one constantly pushing and hyping this thing. On the excess, what defines excess? Excess is a real number over an arbitrarily estimated potential number. The problem is the underestimate for 2020 and then the novel massive use of unreliable testing systems to count both cases and deaths. Yes, many deaths from covid, wear a mask, be careful and be mindful of others. Honestly, most people questioning to plan for 2020 are already mindful of others and have not been the problem. The problem is the pushing of ineffective, unproven, and devastating measures and then throwing a speculative estimated numbers based on a lower than appropriate estimate in order to shut people up. Yes people have died of covid, many, but the excess death numbers nor the actual covid death count are not necessarily even close to accurate; they may be, but they just as easily could be way off. Claiming there are no studies proving this is ridiculous as well as no funding agency would fund that research nor would any journal touch an article suggesting such. We have entered to world of political clown science where only dogma counts and the real scientific process is ridiculed and shut down by people aiming to bank bank, established more control in their work arena, or political power off of it. The CDC and the WHO have become unreliable sources of real science; sinister or not everything that emerges is tailored to fit the narrative that results in the least public ridicule. That is my opinion and many many other real scientists and doctors share this same opinion. It is disheartening at best but will likely be a serious danger in the progress of science for many years ahead. We have entered the realm of dogmatic science which looks like the world when groups began to break from the Catholic Church. Science is not a religion, science is uncertainty, questioning, testing, exploring, challenging. What has led 2020 is not science, it is the new religion, equipped with the same guilt of the old religions. It is the death to real science.
^Agreed.
Lead Foil Hat wrote:
I am not the one publicly claiming on Letsrun to have turned 10k into 2 million from Covid, that is the one constantly pushing and hyping this thing. On the excess, what defines excess? Excess is a real number over an arbitrarily estimated potential number. The problem is the underestimate for 2020 and then the novel massive use of unreliable testing systems to count both cases and deaths. Yes, many deaths from covid, wear a mask, be careful and be mindful of others. Honestly, most people questioning to plan for 2020 are already mindful of others and have not been the problem. The problem is the pushing of ineffective, unproven, and devastating measures and then throwing a speculative estimated numbers based on a lower than appropriate estimate in order to shut people up. Yes people have died of covid, many, but the excess death numbers nor the actual covid death count are not necessarily even close to accurate; they may be, but they just as easily could be way off. Claiming there are no studies proving this is ridiculous as well as no funding agency would fund that research nor would any journal touch an article suggesting such. We have entered to world of political clown science where only dogma counts and the real scientific process is ridiculed and shut down by people aiming to bank bank, established more control in their work arena, or political power off of it. The CDC and the WHO have become unreliable sources of real science; sinister or not everything that emerges is tailored to fit the narrative that results in the least public ridicule. That is my opinion and many many other real scientists and doctors share this same opinion. It is disheartening at best but will likely be a serious danger in the progress of science for many years ahead. We have entered the realm of dogmatic science which looks like the world when groups began to break from the Catholic Church. Science is not a religion, science is uncertainty, questioning, testing, exploring, challenging. What has led 2020 is not science, it is the new religion, equipped with the same guilt of the old religions. It is the death to real science.
Doctors use their best judgement when discerning underlying cause of death. For 92+% of deaths involving COVID, it was the underlying cause. Note the CDC explicitly says that a positive test is not enough to label COVID as the underlying cause.
Do you think doctors made mistakes or committed fraud en masse? That is the claim you need to make. It was not a case of a sensitive PCR test causing a lot of "false positives" because COVID was labeled as the underlying cause for a vast majority of those deaths.
Bravo America !
^Agreed.
2600 bro wrote:
Care to follow up LFH?
Why on Earth was the threshold of expected deaths idiotically lowered for 2020; this is the main reason for the high assumption of "excess"
Will the statement just disappear into the past like so many of your other baseless claims?
I am trying to reach a reasonable consensus here. No hype, no exaggeration, just something everyone can agree on.
2600 bro wrote:
One GLARING difference. Harambe posts raw data from multiple sources - you just "assume."
Show me that the baseline death rate for 2020 was moved sufficiently lower for 100,000s of deaths? Or even moved lower at all?
Go to the CDC dashboard here:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboardThe "line" for 2020 excess death threshold is not visibly different from 2017/18/19. If you have evidence of such renormalization PLEASE PLEASE post it. I would love to see it!
Until then I am going to use the data I can find!
Dear Mr. Richard; just a snapshot of the "expected deaths" from the CDC data set; column 1 (week), column 2 (2019 avg expected deaths), column 3 (2020 avg expected deaths), column 4 (difference 2020-2019), column 5 (2019 upper threshold for deaths), column 6 (2020 upper threshold for deaths), column 4 (difference btw 2020-2019); mysteriously the estimates all down downwards ~2600 deaths per day for 2020 starting in March. Sorry it can't be prettier, but Brojos don't let us post our own images or data directly; which is smart despite annoying.
Week 2019 Avg Exp 2020 Avg Exp Diff 2019 UpThr 2020 UpThr Diff
Week 1 59547 60926 1379 61572 63114 1542
Week 2 60279 61480 1201 62256 63659 1403
Week 3 60685 61506 821 62513 63499 986
Week 4 60791 61515 724 62495 63393 898
Week 5 60476 61109 633 62149 62932 783
Week 6 60435 60538 103 62192 62361 169
Week 7 60441 60184 -257 62270 61996 -274
Week 8 60401 59613 -788 62142 61409 -733
Week 9 60287 58952 -1335 62153 60711 -1442
Week 10 59971 58650 -1321 61835 60352 -1483
Week 11 59622 58096 -1526 61483 59883 -1600
Week 12 59446 57556 -1890 61394 59393 -2001
Week 13 58923 57081 -1842 60769 58890 -1879
Week 14 58422 56502 -1920 60278 58290 -1988
Week 15 57699 55919 -1780 59573 57670 -1903
Week 16 57188 55294 -1894 59066 56991 -2075
Week 17 56818 54644 -2174 58795 56369 -2426
Week 18 56112 53914 -2198 57920 55639 -2281
Week 19 55445 53339 -2106 57271 55046 -2225
Week 20 55017 52851 -2166 56868 54542 -2326
Week 21 54689 52449 -2240 56557 54058 -2499
Week 22 54636 52218 -2418 56592 53859 -2733
Week 23 54265 52093 -2172 56031 53753 -2278
Week 24 54064 51917 -2147 55867 53599 -2268
Week 25 54021 51875 -2146 55847 53587 -2260
Week 26 53920 51767 -2153 55735 53385 -2350
Week 27 54010 51583 -2427 55967 53230 -2737
Week 28 53661 51468 -2193 55472 53109 -2363
Week 29 53600 51356 -2244 55555 53021 -2534
Week 30 53324 51270 -2054 55218 52994 -2224
Week 31 53337 51170 -2167 55208 52875 -2333
Week 32 53496 51201 -2295 55466 52887 -2579
Week 33 53478 51202 -2276 55337 52875 -2462
Week 34 53645 51294 -2351 55639 52986 -2653
Week 35 53669 51403 -2266 55600 53150 -2450
Week 36 53822 51622 -2200 55822 53348 -2474
Week 37 54185 51757 -2428 56239 53471 -2768
Week 38 54388 52060 -2328 56408 53696 -2712
Week 39 54757 52398 -2359 56856 54087 -2769
Week 40 54764 52715 -2049 56786 54528 -2258
Week 41 55088 52985 -2103 57100 54780 -2320
Week 42 55472 53366 -2106 57539 55055 -2484
Week 43 55630 53683 -1947 57584 55428 -2156
Week 44 55946 54046 -1900 58038 55698 -2340
Week 45 56284 54432 -1852 58411 56206 -2205
Week 46 56454 54735 -1719 58519 56531 -1988
Week 47 56869 55235 -1634 58952 57023 -1929
Week 48 57603 55741 -1862 59721 57430 -2291
Week 49 58253 56370 -1883 60387 58104 -2283
Week 50 58844 56856 -1988 61000 58589 -2411
Week 51 59622 57819 -1803 61702 59514 -2188
Week 52 60421 58835 -1586 62530 60618 -1912
Total 2944222 2858590 -85632 3044679 2949613 -95066
Lead Foil Hat wrote:
Dear Mr. Richard; just a snapshot of the "expected deaths" from the CDC data set; column 1 (week), column 2 (2019 avg expected deaths), column 3 (2020 avg expected deaths), column 4 (difference 2020-2019), column 5 (2019 upper threshold for deaths), column 6 (2020 upper threshold for deaths), column 4 (difference btw 2020-2019); mysteriously the estimates all down downwards ~2600 deaths per day for 2020 starting in March. Sorry it can't be prettier, but Brojos don't let us post our own images or data directly; which is smart despite annoying.
Week 52 60421 58835 -1586 62530 60618 -1912
Total 2944222 2858590 -85632 3044679 2949613 -95066
This is an interesting point. I skimmed the papers on the algorithms they use and I think I know why the baseline dropped in 2020. 2019 was a relatively low year for deaths. Every week was below the baseline excess for the year, and to a larger magnitude than previous low death weeks.
The algorithm calculates a baseline for each week based on corrected averages of the same week from years passed.
A low death year in 2019 would pull the baseline down for 2020, because the algorithm 2020 factors in weekly deaths from 2019 (and 2018, 2017) when calculating the baseline.
You can argue this is a bad model. I think it makes decent sense if you're trying to be unbiased and assume you cannot instinctively know how deaths will change year to year.
You are welcome to cherry pick the baseline from 2019 (which is the highest from 2017-2019; 2017 and 2018 are close/lower than 2019. This leaves you with ~390,000 excess deaths in 2020 (using the more stringent baseline). Not exactly attributable to an accounting error!
Again, this matches with other sources that have used different algorithms to calculate excess deaths. Not just the CDC.
And 390k is still >360k attributed to Covid in 2020.
noticer of stupidity wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
Yet, here you are.
Well yes Timmy. This is the forum for the regular people. You'll always find me here.
Spouting your derangement.
Lead Foil Hat wrote:
trashcan wrote:
500,000 people have died of Covid, but they didn’t all die in 2020. 360k died of Covid in 2020. In fact, if you look at the number of Covid deaths from 2020 and the number of excess deaths from 2020 they line up quite closely. Do they lineup perfectly? No, but one shouldn’t expect things to be so simple. There were probably a bit more excess deaths than Covid deaths.
So you made a basic math mistake, and based on that accused harambe of being unethical. If I had done that I would look to be more careful in the future.
And no, I have no moderna or Pfizer stock that I know of.
I am not the one publicly claiming on Letsrun to have turned 10k into 2 million from Covid, that is the one constantly pushing and hyping this thing. On the excess, what defines excess? Excess is a real number over an arbitrarily estimated potential number. The problem is the underestimate for 2020 and then the novel massive use of unreliable testing systems to count both cases and deaths. Yes, many deaths from covid, wear a mask, be careful and be mindful of others. Honestly, most people questioning to plan for 2020 are already mindful of others and have not been the problem. The problem is the pushing of ineffective, unproven, and devastating measures and then throwing a speculative estimated numbers based on a lower than appropriate estimate in order to shut people up. Yes people have died of covid, many, but the excess death numbers nor the actual covid death count are not necessarily even close to accurate; they may be, but they just as easily could be way off. Claiming there are no studies proving this is ridiculous as well as no funding agency would fund that research nor would any journal touch an article suggesting such. We have entered to world of political clown science where only dogma counts and the real scientific process is ridiculed and shut down by people aiming to bank bank, established more control in their work arena, or political power off of it. The CDC and the WHO have become unreliable sources of real science; sinister or not everything that emerges is tailored to fit the narrative that results in the least public ridicule. That is my opinion and many many other real scientists and doctors share this same opinion. It is disheartening at best but will likely be a serious danger in the progress of science for many years ahead. We have entered the realm of dogmatic science which looks like the world when groups began to break from the Catholic Church. Science is not a religion, science is uncertainty, questioning, testing, exploring, challenging. What has led 2020 is not science, it is the new religion, equipped with the same guilt of the old religions. It is the death to real science.
The data isn’t just coming from the CDC and WHO. Scientific research and data collection is distributed. The data coming out of the Nordic countries is not controlled by the CDC or the WHO. Saying that it is seems like we are getting to a conspiracy beyond what is possible given how humans function.
Btw, H’s standard for when to lift restrictions actually seemed quicker than mine (and I will go with a combo). My recollection was that H’s position was “when the weekly death toll from Covid is consistent with what we would see from flu, then we can treat it like the flu.“
That seems pretty reasonable, although my modification would be “ when treating Covid like the flu would result in death rates like the flu, then it is reasonable to treat Covid like the flu.“ admittedly that is harder to assess. I would add that “when every adult in the US who wants the vaccine can get the vaccine, it is time to reopen.” So whichever standard is reached first.
I will say that the nature of the pandemic required faster assessments and reactions Is inconsistent with the normal pace of medical research. NOT really re the vaccines, but a lot of other times we had to work with lesser data.
This is not really addressed to LFH, but I think it needs to be said in this context, the issue with vaccine testing was not the duration of the trial, which is standard.
The speed was a result of massive recruitment.
And I always figured H’s discussion of life outside let’s run was trolling BS (admittedly not helpful).
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
Running for Bowerman Track Club used to be cool now its embarrassing
Hats off to my dad. He just ran a 1:42 Half Marathon and turns 75 in 2 months!
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year