Which current college runner will be a great marathoner?

That is the point of the thread is for people to predict who those people will be. Why bother posting to tell us that you aren't willing to do a bit of research and make a prediction?

Thanks. I have done a google search on every one of these athletes.

What is going on with John Dressel? Cant find anything on him over the last year.

Tierney?

I don’t think the men will be desperate enough to Hail Mary a ‘thon. They’ll be able to live off YouTube revenue

forcerunner wrote:

Looking at current indoor lists:

Cruz Culpepper UW

George Kusche Nebraska

Cooper Teare Oregon

Cole Hocker Oregon

Conner Mantz BYU

Aaron Bienenfeld Cincinnati

Casey Clinger BYU

Eric Hamer Colo St

Andrew Jordan UW

Katie Izzo Arkansas

Bethany Hasz Minnesota

Wouldn't be surprised at any of those names being successful marathoners.

Out of the names you put out, I'd bet that the two best marathoners would be Mantz and Culpepper. Mantz has the body type and is mostly slow-twitch while Culpepper obviously has the genetics. However, Mantz seems a little injury prone and hasn't really been capable of 110+ mpw without getting hurt. Nico Young also seems like a good prospect provided that he's able to clean up his form a little more. Teare hasn't had an overuse injury in his career from what I know, but then again he's almost never run more than 75 mpw. He also seems a little big/inefficient for a marathoner.

Any number of those boys from BYU.

Maybe Kieran Tuntivate out of Harvard.

Andy Payne at Eastern Michigan.

Everett Smulders

I think all of you are missing the bigger picture. Take and all-time top performers, or performances, either, at the marathon. Tell me where the first appearance is of anyone who participated in the NCAA. There are no current college runners who will be factors internationally at the marathon. I'm not necessarily applauding when I point this out. It would be fine with me if it were the opposite, which is to say you'd really have to look hard and go way down the list to find someone who didn't.

Thing is, NCAA participation almost assures a lack of marathon success. Some of you will point out Deena and Rupp. Fewer, but some, will mention the Halls. None is a current NCAA runner, nor got out of the system with the marathon as deep internationally as it is now. Their PRs are not within several minutes of the current World Record, or more importantly, what it will be a few years from now when many of the runners mentioned will be trying the event.

Those I mentioned have been the best to come out of the NCAA system. Now, show me a list of the best of the best not to. Kipchoge might be the first name brought up. Of course, Kosgei. I kind of like Kipsang and Keitany. They're still on the short list, and far beyond anyone who ran in NCAA. Paula, even Haile. They seem to be from an earlier era now. A lot of ex-NCAA runners were active in both of their primes. And since. None are close in any all-time list or any historical perspective.

The gal who tried, or did (I don't know the legality and ratification history) set a US Junior Record recently will almost certainly be good, but will she be in the same league as some names unknown to me and most of you currently? Whoever are the superstars of the near future? Want to be great at that event? Follow the leaders. They don't consider any of the college stuff. Some may point out that the runners I refer to are not American. Correct.

I'm not sure what one can get out of collegiate running. Some of you can perhaps tell me, and I suspect your stories would inspire a reader to join up. Maybe all of that outweighs being a multiple London winner. So I'm not discouraging collegiate running, but I don't mind pointing out that it doesn't seem to be a great stepping stone to a world class marathon career, least of all in the '20s.

What a waste of text.

Predictor of the unknown wrote:

Any number of those boys from BYU.

Maybe Kieran Tuntivate out of Harvard.

I like the Tuntivate pick right now from a risk/reward standpoint. I’ll like it more if he dips under 28’ at “The Ten.”

Otherwise, like others have mentioned, the names that pop into my head are Mantz and Nico Young. I could see Mantz at 2:07 and Young at 2:05-2:06.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Sham 69 wrote:

Nico Young

He has the talent to make Olympic teams on the track and probably won't move up to the marathon until he's past his prime.

Not trying to tear the kid down (I just said he could threaten the AR in the marathon), but I think it’s very possible that Young lacks the natural speed to ever make U.S. 5k teams. Wouldn’t mind one bit if I’m wrong.

Facts, nevertheless. Not a waste of text since none of you thought of this. How many NCAA runners are there? How many have there ever been? You can count on your hands, with fingers left, the number of those that have become world class marathoners. I'm not anti-NCAA, but it isn't a pathway to marathon greatness.

hate to say it..... wrote:

Facts, nevertheless. Not a waste of text since none of you thought of this. How many NCAA runners are there? How many have there ever been? You can count on your hands, with fingers left, the number of those that have become world class marathoners. I'm not anti-NCAA, but it isn't a pathway to marathon greatness.

Banana badger bumpkin squat. Had you thought of that?—well then I guess it has value!

You’re only looking at one variable, NCAA vs. no NCAA, and looking down the top-lists at Kipchoge, Bekele, etc. and concluding “The NCAA ruins marathoners.” This is incompetent logic. Show me all the American-born marathon stars who didn’t compete (usually with great success) in the NCAA—Bill Rodgers is about the best you’ll do, and he ran in college but just underperformed.

“The fastest American-born marathoners (Hall, Rupp, and Ritzenhein) all won NCAA titles, so I’ve concluded that NCAA success is essential to future marathon success” - This too is bogus, but seems more rational than your conclusions.

I'm gonna be honest. I don't think Nico Young is gonna be a great pro. His high school coach pushed him hard, and NAU is a high mileage program. Mike Smith said on a podcast that the reason Peter Lomong had such a great season in 2017 (and helped the team get the title) was that he ran 120 mile weeks over the summer.

Obviously Nico is probably not running that much mileage, and Mike Smith is quite an amazing coach. But you don't get to the top of the NCAA and develop random talents (like Tyler Day) into some of the fastest guys to run without putting in a lot of work.

I'm not saying Young will burn out. I hope he doesn't. But we should take things step by step. He needs to drop some fast 5k/10k times before we can say he'll be a good marathoner.

You would think BYU would produce better prospects post college but other than Jared award who has really seen success in the marathon? Like making teams and placing highly on the worlds majors and champs

Any true distance runner in the NCAA who is any good is running 120 MPW or more even. That doesn't foretell anything post college.

Juice Springsteen wrote:

You would think BYU would produce better prospects post college but other than Jared award who has really seen success in the marathon? Like making teams and placing highly on the worlds majors and champs

Ed Eyestone.

Well, tens of thousands cycle through that system in any given 5 year period. Not all want to be the best marathoner in the world. Most don't ever do one. Nevertheless, there have been many - it must be more than a hundred thousand, but there is no record of such since there's no way to compile a list of all those who wanted to win marathon Gold but were never heard from - who absolutely wanted to be the best and specifically tried to. How many do you figure 'made it'? 6? 7?

Again, name anyone in the top 100 performances who in any way participated in the NCAA. Necessary for success? Kipchoge doesn't think so. In fact, in Sub 4, Lear interviews El G. He and his coach both say the NCAA is absolutely a bad idea. He didn't do it, of course, and he's the best there's ever been at his best events by a wide margin. Ditto Bolt. With the marathon, there's an even bigger gulf. At least there are those in the top-10 in the specialty events of those I just mentioned who did do it. In the marathon, nobody within minutes.

Let's make this more clear and succinct. To answer the OP's question, there isn't a current NCAA runner who will ever be an internationally competitive marathoner.

Necessary? Laughable. Get back to me when somebody who has ever even watched an NCAA event wins Berlin.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

He has the talent to make Olympic teams on the track and probably won't move up to the marathon until he's past his prime.

Not trying to tear the kid down (I just said he could threaten the AR in the marathon), but I think it’s very possible that Young lacks the natural speed to ever make U.S. 5k teams. Wouldn’t mind one bit if I’m wrong.

He closed an 8:40 3200 in his junior year of HS in a 58. Otherwise I’ve never seen him be in a situation where he needed to kick, apart from the recent race vs. Mantz.