I think it is very likely that he will be well under 28 minutes for 10k this summer based on that 8k opener (roughly 28:30 pace for 10k). Only 8 athletes broke 28 in 2019 for USA and only 8 did so in 2020 as well.
Combining the two years here is a comprehensive ranking list
1. Lopez Lomong 27:04
2. Eric Jenkins 27:22
3. Shadrack Kipchirchir 27:24
4. Kirubel Erassa 27:32
5. Leonard Korir 27:34
6. Joe Klecker 27:35
8. Hillary Bor 27:38
9. Robert Brandt 27:39
10. Paul Chelimo 27:43
Obviously its a long shot to say he has any chance with this group ahead of him, but if one or two of the top runners is off or doesn't compete in the 10k he could be in the hunt for a spot. A 27:45 at the Oly Trials might be fast enough if the race is more tactical.
At the very least I think there is a possibility of seeing him running in the front pack for most of the race which would be really exciting.
Could Nico Young make the 2021 Olympics?
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No. He will not make the Olympics this year. What exactly are you smoking?
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Conner Mantz who finished just ahead of Nico a few days ago was ranked 11th in the USA in 2020 and 12th in the USA in 2019 and I assume he is improving since he is still young. This puts Nico currently right around the top 10 in the USA.
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2020 superfrosh wrote:
Conner Mantz who finished just ahead of Nico a few days ago was ranked 11th in the USA in 2020 and 12th in the USA in 2019 and I assume he is improving since he is still young. This puts Nico currently right around the top 10 in the USA.
That isn't close to making the Olympics, especially since Nico has never run a track 10k before. I doubt he'll even compete at the trials. -
He may not finish 10th in the NCAA 10k.
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He is a very good freshman, but come back down to earth. He will be doing very well to run 13:30's, and a low 28 this year. Highly unlikely he'll run a sub 28 10,000 meters, and even if he did that wouldn't be good enough. The olympic standard is 27:30 and he won't touch that. Only a few Americans will have that and it'll be a race between them.
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Not even close wrote:
He is a very good freshman, but come back down to earth. He will be doing very well to run 13:30's, and a low 28 this year. Highly unlikely he'll run a sub 28 10,000 meters, and even if he did that wouldn't be good enough. The olympic standard is 27:30 and he won't touch that. Only a few Americans will have that and it'll be a race between them.
I think superfrosh is overselling him and you're underselling him. Sub-13:25 is a very reasonable goal for Nico -- it's in line with what Chris Derrick and German Fernandez ran their freshman year, and Nico has every bit the talent that they did.
Derrick ran 7:56 for 3000 indoors his freshman year, 13:29 AJR outdoors for 5000.
Fernandez ran 7:57 for 3000 indoors his freshman year, 13:25 AJR (breaking Derrick's mark) for 5000.
Nico ran 7:56 for the HSR indoors LAST year, I think he's probably faster this year, and he should be shooting for the low 13:20s outdoors. 13:30s would be very good, but a bit underwhelming given his expected progression. He may well run 7:48-9 if he runs an indoor 3000 this year, too. -
Paul Chelimo!
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Definitiely! Breakdancing is now an olympic sport. Here is a video of him from one of his battles in HS (starts at 0:43):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsDc7YEGgow -
birdbeard wrote:
Not even close wrote:
He is a very good freshman, but come back down to earth. He will be doing very well to run 13:30's, and a low 28 this year. Highly unlikely he'll run a sub 28 10,000 meters, and even if he did that wouldn't be good enough. The olympic standard is 27:30 and he won't touch that. Only a few Americans will have that and it'll be a race between them.
I think superfrosh is overselling him and you're underselling him. Sub-13:25 is a very reasonable goal for Nico -- it's in line with what Chris Derrick and German Fernandez ran their freshman year, and Nico has every bit the talent that they did.
Derrick ran 7:56 for 3000 indoors his freshman year, 13:29 AJR outdoors for 5000.
Fernandez ran 7:57 for 3000 indoors his freshman year, 13:25 AJR (breaking Derrick's mark) for 5000.
Nico ran 7:56 for the HSR indoors LAST year, I think he's probably faster this year, and he should be shooting for the low 13:20s outdoors. 13:30s would be very good, but a bit underwhelming given his expected progression. He may well run 7:48-9 if he runs an indoor 3000 this year, too.
I'm not sure equating those 3k times to 5k times makes a whole lot of sense. Grant Fisher ran 7:50 as a frosh in January, and 13:30 for the 5k. Which I think would be a very good time for Nico. So in short agree with the other poster that 13:30s and low 28:00 would be quite good. -
If this thread had said Conner Mantz instead of Nico Young I wonder what people would have said. Conner Mantz is definitely in the mix for a spot on the team this year in most people’s minds so why is Nico so different?
Conner Mantz finished 3rd at NCAA track back in 2019 and he has improved a lot since then. -
Will he, most likely not. Can he, sure.
Nico if I had to guess will go for the Junior US record of 13:25 and that will get him in the trials. I'm sure if this happens he will be in the mix at the OT. Making a team will be very unlikely just not impossible -
2020 superfrosh wrote:
I think it is very likely that he will be well under 28 minutes for 10k this summer based on that 8k opener (roughly 28:30 pace for 10k). Only 8 athletes broke 28 in 2019 for USA and only 8 did so in 2020 as well.
Combining the two years here is a comprehensive ranking list
1. Lopez Lomong 27:04
2. Eric Jenkins 27:22
3. Shadrack Kipchirchir 27:24
4. Kirubel Erassa 27:32
5. Leonard Korir 27:34
6. Joe Klecker 27:35
8. Hillary Bor 27:38
9. Robert Brandt 27:39
10. Paul Chelimo 27:43
Obviously its a long shot to say he has any chance with this group ahead of him, but if one or two of the top runners is off or doesn't compete in the 10k he could be in the hunt for a spot. A 27:45 at the Oly Trials might be fast enough if the race is more tactical.
At the very least I think there is a possibility of seeing him running in the front pack for most of the race which would be really exciting.
No, he might not even be top ten at NCAAs -
Cole Sprout has a decent shot.
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superfrosh op wrote:
Conner Mantz is definitely in the mix for a spot on the team this year in most people’s minds
False -
2020 superfrosh wrote:
I think it is very likely that he will be well under 28 minutes for 10k this summer based on that 8k opener (roughly 28:30 pace for 10k). Only 8 athletes broke 28 in 2019 for USA and only 8 did so in 2020 as well.
Combining the two years here is a comprehensive ranking list
1. Lopez Lomong 27:04
2. Eric Jenkins 27:22
3. Shadrack Kipchirchir 27:24
4. Kirubel Erassa 27:32
5. Leonard Korir 27:34
6. Joe Klecker 27:35
8. Hillary Bor 27:38
9. Robert Brandt 27:39
10. Paul Chelimo 27:43
Obviously its a long shot to say he has any chance with this group ahead of him, but if one or two of the top runners is off or doesn't compete in the 10k he could be in the hunt for a spot. A 27:45 at the Oly Trials might be fast enough if the race is more tactical.
At the very least I think there is a possibility of seeing him running in the front pack for most of the race which would be really exciting.
NCAA athletes making the USOT:
Nico Young = No
Athing MU = Yes
KC Lightfoot = Yes
Matthew Boling = Maybe
JuVaughn Harrison = Maybe -
2020 superfrosh wrote:
Conner Mantz who finished just ahead of Nico a few days ago was ranked 11th in the USA in 2020 and 12th in the USA in 2019 and I assume he is improving since he is still young.
Um, a 32 year old sophomore is not "young." -
Dos Equis wrote:
2020 superfrosh wrote:
Conner Mantz who finished just ahead of Nico a few days ago was ranked 11th in the USA in 2020 and 12th in the USA in 2019 and I assume he is improving since he is still young.
Um, a 32 year old sophomore is not "young."
lmao that’s facts, half of the BYU team is married with kids. -
2020 superfrosh wrote:
A 27:45 at the Oly Trials might be fast enough if the race is more tactical.
To make the olympics he needs to 13:13 or 27:28 unless they relax the standards. That is a ton of improvement from where he is at. Something like 13:20/27:40 would make him the best US junior runner in a long time (i.e back to the lindgren days) but he would still be short of actually making the olympics. -
TrackCoach wrote:
2020 superfrosh wrote:
I think it is very likely that he will be well under 28 minutes for 10k this summer based on that 8k opener (roughly 28:30 pace for 10k). Only 8 athletes broke 28 in 2019 for USA and only 8 did so in 2020 as well.
Combining the two years here is a comprehensive ranking list
1. Lopez Lomong 27:04
2. Eric Jenkins 27:22
3. Shadrack Kipchirchir 27:24
4. Kirubel Erassa 27:32
5. Leonard Korir 27:34
6. Joe Klecker 27:35
8. Hillary Bor 27:38
9. Robert Brandt 27:39
10. Paul Chelimo 27:43
Obviously its a long shot to say he has any chance with this group ahead of him, but if one or two of the top runners is off or doesn't compete in the 10k he could be in the hunt for a spot. A 27:45 at the Oly Trials might be fast enough if the race is more tactical.
At the very least I think there is a possibility of seeing him running in the front pack for most of the race which would be really exciting.
NCAA athletes making the USOT:
Nico Young = No
Athing MU = Yes
KC Lightfoot = Yes
Matthew Boling = Maybe
JuVaughn Harrison = Maybe
Im going to screen shot this and start a thread when Nico runs under 13:25 and competes at the Olympic Trials.
