Nico Young NCAA Champ Thread

7%.

7th place.

@TheRunningEffect wrote:

Bold Prediction: Nico Young wins on March 15 in stunning fashion. Becomes the second-ever freshman to win.

What is the percentage that he wins and what do you predicate he'll place? If you think I'm crazy for thinking he'll win come back on March 15.

My bold prediction is that he will not be the second ever freshman to win NCAA XC, even if he wins.

No chance. Isn't even the best on his own team.

In no specific order, near-locks to beat Cooper Teare

Wesley Kiptoo

Cooper Teare

Luis Grijalva

Isai Rodriguez

Conner Mantz

It's a short list, but there is no chance he beats ALL of these guys at nationals. He may beat 1 or 2 of them, but not all of them. Personally, I think Kiptoo will run away with it.

haha I meant near locks to beat Nico young not near locks to beat teare. my brain is falling apart don't blame me

beasts wrote:

In no specific order, near-locks to beat Cooper Teare

Wesley Kiptoo

Cooper Teare

Luis Grijalva

Isai Rodriguez

Conner Mantz

It's a short list, but there is no chance he beats ALL of these guys at nationals. He may beat 1 or 2 of them, but not all of them. Personally, I think Kiptoo will run away with it.

Eh, I don’t think Rodriguez belongs on that list. It seems pretty clear that the others do, though.

I think Nico will get 4th. He’ll beat one or two of those guys, but one or two others like Hocker or someone similar could beat him. Grijalva is my choice to win, and I think Mantz will be close behind.

If Beadlescomb is healthy and gets in, he could win. He almost beat Chelimo in the fall and he ran 13:30 indoor last year. A lot of ifs there though.

Rodriguez ran 22:48 on a fairly tough course, so I think he at least has a shot. But you're right, he definitely isn't a lock to be Nico.

I'm more interested in how fast hell be as a senior in six years.

Good point

I'd say for him to win would be very unlikely especially because he isn't even the top runner on his team. I can't see Nico beating Luis G in cross country just yet and if he does there would need to be quite a bit of separation at the end. Since, if the race is close, Nico doesn't stand a chance against Luis G in a kick. Hanging with Connor Mantz is a phenomenon start for Nico Young but I think he still has a long way to go until he can be considered an NCAA favorite. Granted I don't even think I would have had Connor Mantz as my favorite to win NCAAs, to begin with.

hdidjhdkdj wrote:

@TheRunningEffect wrote:

Bold Prediction: Nico Young wins on March 15 in stunning fashion. Becomes the second-ever freshman to win.

What is the percentage that he wins and what do you predicate he'll place? If you think I'm crazy for thinking he'll win come back on March 15.

QFT!

My bold prediction is that he will not be the second ever freshman to win NCAA XC, even if he wins.

Leddy Gee wrote:

hdidjhdkdj wrote:

My bold prediction is that he will not be the second ever freshman to win NCAA XC, even if he wins.

QFT!

beasts wrote:

Rodriguez ran 22:48 on a fairly tough course, so I think he at least has a shot. But you're right, he definitely isn't a lock to be Nico.

Not a lock, but yes, he's very good.

He lost to Clinger in the fall, so I think Rodriguez is in that second tier of dudes that come after the true contenders, along with Nico. In my mind the true contenders are Mantz, Teare, Grijalva, Kiptoo. I'd be very surprised if one of those 4 didn't come away with it. At NCAAs there are always some people that run out of their minds though, so I would expect 1-2 darkhorses to slip into the T5 and 1-2 of the "locks" to have a bad day or a cold or something and not get T5.

Kusche, Davis, Beadlescomb

Faster than ever wrote:

Kusche, Davis, Beadlescomb

not sure exactly what you're getting at, but i would take nico over all three. they are in the same tier of contenders for a t10 slot, t5 on a great day. not contenders for the win like teare/kiptoo/grijalva

beadlescomb has his 13:31 and kusche his 7:50. has davis done anything aside from run decently at his conference meet?

Did you miss Beadlescomb losing to Chelimo by 1 second? Davis 3:58 and 7:49 set at like 19 years old. He has dealt with injuries. If healthy, he is a 3:55/7:45 guy. Nico is not there yet.

saved bell wrote:

Did you miss Beadlescomb losing to Chelimo by 1 second? Davis 3:58 and 7:49 set at like 19 years old. He has dealt with injuries. If healthy, he is a 3:55/7:45 guy. Nico is not there yet.

That's a lot of assumptions w/r/t Davis. His PRs are from 2-3 years ago.

Chelimo lost to Ferlic that day that Beadlescomb got 3rd, so I think it's safe to say he wasn't in Oly/WC medalist form that day. I'll wait until I see these guys show up in a big way vs. top college comp like Young did vs. Mantz.

These guys have a total of 0 top 20 finishes at XC between them and 0 top ten track performances. Maybe 4 individual NCAA qualifiers on the track between them. They are not a cut above Young after what he did last weekend, c'mon.