Nico Young - top 10 guy at NCAAs?

Lawi was technically in his Soph year at Arizona, but 2011 was his first season of XC, and he won. It's easy to forget how talented Lawi was and is. Similar capability to KingChes in the NCAA, but with little to no running background:

"2011: Arrived at Arizona with no competitive running experience whatsoever. In his very first collegiate race, Lalang finished second in the 3,000-meter run indoors in a time of 7:55.05 to set one of the top times in the country … In his second career race, Lalang ran a sub-four-minute mile in 3:59.13. He won his first Pac-10 Championship title in the 5,000 meters, running 13:47.29 … He won the 5,000-meter run at the NCAA West Preliminaries, running his best time of year, 13:30.64 … At the NCAA Championships, Lalang took second, posting a time of 13:31.69. Prior to the 2011 season, Lalang had no cross country experience, however, Lalang managed to post one of the best individual seasons in collegiate history … Lalang went undefeated in six races on the year and his average margin of victory was 22.5 seconds … At the NCAA Championships, Lalang took the lead after 4K and essentially ran the rest of the race by himself, winning with a 10K time 28:44.1, missing the course record by only three seconds"

100%. The greats can overcome this and be legit AA or top10 as Frosh. Most FLXC studs, however, end up 50-100th at Nats, despite hot 8k times and gunning for their team vets in workouts.

Would have an asterisk wrote:

This year a top 10 doesn't mean as much, there's a split focus on track and field and cross country. I'll be more impressed if he scores points (top 8) at the outdoor track championships.

Eh I'd say those two things are somewhat on par this year. I agree that NCAA XC will be watered down this year, but the different events in track water it all down a bit too, either because guys are tired running multiple events or because they don't run multiple events. I would actually be somewhat surprised if a guy that ran 7:56 a year ago 13:44 in December wasn't able to score points in whichever event he chooses (presumably the 5000, but possibly the 10,000 I suppose).

I don't know. Here is a short list of guys who I believe are competing outdoor.

Kiptoo

Kurgat

Teare

Grijalva

Mantz

Bosley

Young

Garcia Romo

Boit

Suliman

West

Hunter

Masai

Nur

Raff

Veatch

Beadlescomb

Cheboson

ck3237 wrote:

Didn't Issac Rodriguez of Oklahoma St. place 4th as a freshmen in the NCs in 2018?

He was a redshirt freshman.

Would have an asterisk wrote:

This year a top 10 doesn't mean as much, there's a split focus on track and field and cross country. I'll be more impressed if he scores points (top 8) at the outdoor track championships.

I'm genuinely curious. Are there actually competitive XC athletes prioritizing indoor track over XC? I could see athletes better at 1500/3K doing that. But they wouldn't be competitive in XC anyway.

Yes. Tough competition but if he runs what he is capable of he will certainly score. Hard to think of a time when a 13:30ish guy wouldn't, and that's the shape I assume he'll be in.

runnER/DR wrote:

Would have an asterisk wrote:

This year a top 10 doesn't mean as much, there's a split focus on track and field and cross country. I'll be more impressed if he scores points (top 8) at the outdoor track championships.

I'm genuinely curious. Are there actually competitive XC athletes prioritizing indoor track over XC? I could see athletes better at 1500/3K doing that. But they wouldn't be competitive in XC anyway.

Some people may consider Teare a competitive XC athlete and he's been running indoor races

happened before wrote:

themildrunmaster wrote:

Don't count on it. Not saying he won't, but it definitely is not guaranteed. He may need a year or two to adjust to the collegiate scene. Maybe he won't develop as much as people think he will. Pressure to make top 10 is a lot for a college frosh.

Cheserek won the NCAA championship race his first year of college.

Has everyone forgotten Bob Kennedy already?

birdbeard wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Except for the part about someone being competitive at 8K, but less so at 10. The same guys are always at the front at both distances.

I don't think it's unusual to see freshmen adjusting to mileage/college training do slightly better at the 8K than 10K their first year, since they are used to 5K in HS. Happens fairly often.

I agree with this--the jump from 8k to 10k for a frosh is no joke. Not to say he can't do it, and handle it well, but it's not insignificant.

One other thing I want to add--the difference between making the 8k --> 10k XC jump in the Spring, rather than in the fall, is also a factor. To have that many weeks of training cycles under your belt, especially in Flagstaff, will make a big difference.

His form has gotten way better since high school.

oqew wrote:

22:52 8k just behind Conner Mantz's 22:50, beating out Clinger and Nuguse. Does he have a top-10 finish in him?

Yes, definitely top-10, I would say top-5 if it was only 8K.

.. wrote:

His form has gotten way better since high school.

I noticed that too. Much smoother, especially in the upper body. I think NAU emphasizes a legit weight training program. Maybe that’s helping.

it doesn't matter if he finishes in the top 10 at NCAAs as a freshman. in this race he was 2 seconds behind a talented runner who is more than 5.5 years older than him (and beat everyone else) so he's doing great. just stay healthy and consistent for 2024 olympics, all these other accolades are a lot less meaningful

my 3 cents wrote:

.. wrote:

His form has gotten way better since high school.

I noticed that too. Much smoother, especially in the upper body. I think NAU emphasizes a legit weight training program. Maybe that’s helping.

He was under trained in HE

the real world wrote:

my 3 cents wrote:

I noticed that too. Much smoother, especially in the upper body. I think NAU emphasizes a legit weight training program. Maybe that’s helping.

He was under trained in HE

Sorry internet cut out

He is getting stronger now. It’s also happens has you get older. You get stronger and add a few things in your routine things fall into place

Bob Kennedy won NCAA XC as true freshman.

more than once wrote:

happened before wrote:

Cheserek won the NCAA championship race his first year of college.

Has everyone forgotten Bob Kennedy already?

Didn't see your post when I mentioned Kennedy.

Knight Templar wrote:

more than once wrote:

Has everyone forgotten Bob Kennedy already?

Didn't see your post when I mentioned Kennedy.

No one forgot and no disrespect to BK, but 32 years ago is a little out of context for the current situation. Clearly this thread and conversation is analyzing probability and outcomes with a more recent and relevant context.

FastTuohy wrote:

post race interviews on Flotrack both BYU and NAU are seem to be saying XC is the focus, top guys might not even run Indoors. Mantz said he didn't feel that great during the race, so he just sat and kicked vs pushing the pace harder.

Mantz didn't feel good because Nico pushed him to the max.