The biggest problem right now is that the public is accepting a new normal level of transmission after each surge such that the next surge will be even bigger than the last one. Six months ago 100k cases nationally in the US was unthinkable. Now, that will be seen as a success with states loosening restrictions in response (even CA is rumored to be considering ending lockdown as soon as this week).
The next big surge will be the worst one of them all because it will be due to the UK and other highly contagious variants taking over (CA may have its own variant). We are about 6-8 weeks away from these variants taking over based on the timelines observed in the UK and other places. If the level of infection is still high, the new variants will cause cases to explode in a way that will make the winter surge look small in comparison.
Worse still is that the SA variant has been confirmed to be an escape variant and it is suspected that the Brazil variant is also an escape variant. The SA variant did not trigger an immune response from blood samples taken from people who had COVID 19 antibodies. These variants are moving much faster than anyone expected.
100 vaccines in 100 days is way too slow. That goal was set before the variants because prevalent. There is no reason why we cannot triple that goal. We need to suspend all patents for vaccines and use the defense production act to require labs to shift production to the vaccine.
We need to use the defense production act to get high quality N95 masks into everyone's hands. Too many people are going around with inferior quality cloth masks. The more contagious variant makes mask quality critical.
With spring coming, we need to be pragmatic about lockdown rules. Indoor dining and bars should be banned nationwide. They are clearly where people are transmitting the virus. But outdoor dining and bars should be allowed with social distancing rules to keep people spread out. A significant factor in the fall/winter surge was people having small indoors gatherings instead of going to restaurants and bars. It is better to have people gathering outdoors than indoors.
Without a massive push to vaccinate, mask and socially distance, we could see a variant push a massive surge in cases in late March to April. This will be a very difficult time because many people will have seasonal allergies which may keep people from realizing they have COVID 19 until it is too late.