Sub 3 hour marathon on 30 mpw plausability

Not implausible, especially at your age. I did sub-3 on not much more mileage and at considerably older age. The most important indicator isn't weekly mileage but how well you can do the 20 miler. I would recommend doing at least one 20 miler every 2-3 weeks in ramping up to it. If you can do 20-23 miles at 6:55 or so pace without a struggle, and your recovery is fast, you can do sub-3. This gives you a chance to test your shoes, clothes, fueling, hydration etc to make sure you don't have any surprises on race day. Pick a flat course on a cool day and you've got a good chance. However, you do realize there are no applicable BQ standards because they don't even know if there will be a race this year or next year. You've got to be realistic that you may very well run a PR and BQ and still not get to run Boston.

I watched a guy earn his PHD in Chemical Engineering and train 125 MPW. Don't blame your education for your unwillingness to put the time and work in.

Sub 3 in a three months off your current training/fitness is possible, but highly unlikely.

There are no shortcuts in the marathon... on course or in preparation.

That's great for him haha, very impressive. Idk why people are getting hung up on me listing a PhD program as a thing that has distracted me from running as much as I'd like haha. Y'all don't need to be worrying about many hours I work or my time management skills xD.

Thanks to everyone posting useful resources! Lots of helpful posts!

I did something equally as dumb when I was your age and cracked my shin. I think the best you could do is 3:15, but chances of a DNF are high.

Jackiemoon,

I have cracked 3 hours several times and was only a upper 30 miles a week runner. I am much older than you (50), but will be taking a crack at it again this year. I have much less talent than you and was still able to pull off sub three many times.

Not sure how much credit one gets for cross training, but I did do a bit of biking and swimming during my sub three marathons.

That's a fair concern, and one I appreciate. Some others have pointed out. This is one reason I'm training 3/4 days a week.

If I feel a stress fracture or something else that's serious and lingering come on, I'll definitely back off. And if I'm not feeling like it's safe to do leading up to the race, I might just race the first half and then walk/jog it in or dnf. I have hopes for at least getting in a good solid attempt at sub-3, but I'll listen to my body if it's giving me warning signs.

jackiemoon wrote:

That's a fair concern, and one I appreciate. Some others have pointed out. This is one reason I'm training 3/4 days a week.

If I feel a stress fracture or something else that's serious and lingering come on, I'll definitely back off. And if I'm not feeling like it's safe to do leading up to the race, I might just race the first half and then walk/jog it in or dnf. I have hopes for at least getting in a good solid attempt at sub-3, but I'll listen to my body if it's giving me warning signs.

With your method you will get a stress fracture a lot easier than with a normal sub 3 hour training. But don't listen to us. Just fracture!

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

You might find yourself catch the running bug and slowly, but surely, wanting to add to what you're doing (without getting hurt/overcommitting time-wise). I did. I ran 2:56:52 the following fall after upping to 40-45mpw. I was up to 50-55mpw the winter/spring of 2019-20, but unfortunately never got to chase after the 1:19:xx, 2:50:xx times I wanted to.

TL - Chasing any goals in 2021?

OP - you're an n of 1. Lots of evidence a guy with you talent can do it. Why not go for it? Adapt later.

Definitely doable but with a caveat or two. Every week but one can be ~30mpw ... but you need at least one run of 20+ miles to really jump start the legs into marathon distance readiness so that week might be 40 miles. Also this only works with a strong base of distance, which it sounds like you dont have given the 8 mpw for the past few years. Without the base and 20+ mile run, there is 1% chance. With those two things, a mostly 30mpw training cycle is all you need for sub-3. I've done it 4 times and been as fast as 2:50.

absolutely possible

did 2:52 with a 16-week average of 27 miles per week. longest week was 33

broke 3:00 after age 45 four times with average right at 30 per week. best half marathon time at that age was 1:26:40

the quality days have to be done precisely and consistently.

don't worry about pace for most of your long runs, but do some occasional fast-finish long runs.

don't do your long runs at goal pace. just put in the time on your feet.

a slow-paced run of 3 hours will do you a lot more good than 20 miles in 2:20

get in a couple of those and you will have enough endurance for a marathon

Thanks for asking. I know it’s lame but I’m waiting for real races to be a reality.

Target times: 1:19 (AQ into NYC Marathon) and 2:49:xx. Granted I’ll go for negative splits with that marathon goal and be happy if I can only manage an even split off 1:26.

Would love if I could get into Boston with my time but it’s a complete unknown when it will be run and if everyone is just clamoring to go I’m not getting in.

I’m in crap shape right now, but all it takes is about 6 weeks.

I agree with your assessment for the OP. I don’t regret going into my first marathon underprepared. If anything, it just motivated me and made me excited to take it up a notch. Same thing with my second build-up that was better but still included a day off most weeks and only one non-LR workout.

For a lot of us guys that had injuries/illness/uneven college running days, I think this is a healthy way to get back into it, as opposed to chasing your full potential right off the bat. Most of my friends that did that, either completely stopped running by 30 or go at 60% now and can’t turn the switch back on to chasing a PR.

Luke Watson ran like 2:15 on 45mpw like a decade before super-shoes on the infamous "stillwater" low miles method.

The key is to have killer genetics.

So if you have elite parents/brothers you are all set.

Good luck.

I was able to run 3:11 off of an average of 30-35 miles per week for 16 or 17 weeks. My weekends were busy. I ran Monday through Friday and used aspects of Hanson’s plan. Most of my mileage was two longer runs, tempo run, interval day, and an easy day. My long runs mirrored the Hanson plan suggested distances and running back-to-back days. My interval work was never more than 3 miles and my tempo runs never longer than 8 miles. I don’t have any great times over any distance. At the time I ran the marathon, I could run 5ks at 6 minute pace. I would have some type of schedule and have miles revolve around goal pace. Goal pace for tempo run and 30-40 seconds slower for long runs.

If you have a lot of talent a sub 3 is possible on minimal training. So yes? it's possible. Why you would want to do it is unclear. I would start with a half marathon which would be way easier to wing it on 30 a week.

But yes I have a very talented friend who ran a 2:56 on almost no training. He ran in college and was very good(ie won a national championship) and ran pro for a few years. Then he didn't run for several years and decided to run a marathon with his little brother on a whim. His PR from a few years before was 2:12...so that shows how little training he did.

So yea it's definitely possible depending on your talent. But definitely don't try 20 miles at MP. Thats a terrible idea. Even 10 would be a lot to recover from if you aren't fit. I would break it up into intervals honestly. Try 3 X 3 miles at MP minus 10 seconds or 2 X 5 miles at MP instead.

I ran similar times in high school as op. Ran about 40 mpw in high school. At age 19 running 50 mph in college Xc and track was able to run a 232 on a whim after track season was over. Ran the first 5 Mike's in 6 minute pace then picked it up to 540 pace before crawling in last few miles in 7 min pace.

At his age he should be able to run sub 3. No warmup. Go out at 7 minute pace for first 5 miles for a warm up. 640-6

45 for next 15 and then hold on. Don't go any faster than 640 unless you are feeling good at 20. You have the advantage of much better shoes than the flats I ran in nearly 40 years ago. Good luck. Make sure you eat a decent amount a few hours before you run and take calories during the marathon.

I know of a guy that ran 2:36 at CIM on 25-30 mpw. He did run a hair under 15min for the 5K in college on 50ish mpw. Idk about the specifics of his training, but he ran the marathon 1-2 years after college. It can be done given you have the speed and didn't get completely out of shape (seems like you're still in shape)