Sub 3 hour marathon on 30 mpw plausability

Come to LR for the advice, stay for the burns... am I right? ;)

Hopefully one day I will be able to live up to your standards of intelligence lol. In the mean time, I'll at least be able to surpass your prediction about my half marathon ability in a few weeks.

jackiemoon wrote:

I think I will get to 35-40 miles consistently for 2 months before the race, how long prior to the race would you say I need to be at 40 mpw to have a decent shot?

You will not have a decent shot with 40 mpw.

Race a HM and with that time adjust your goal for the Marathon.

It is probably better to go into a Marathon with a 3:10 goal and run a 3:08 then going in with a 2:59 goal and end up with a 3:29

But you don't need to listen to us, the wall at mile 22 will teach you everything you need to know about Marathon running.

jackiemoon wrote:

I'll at least be able to surpass your prediction about my half marathon ability in a few weeks.

No way.

I have learned that I used to be an idiot. When you learn that you used to be an idiot, you gain a lot of perspective about your life and everyone else's lives.

You won't be able to race a half marathon on 40 mpw the way you would want to race. I can't do that. No one with a decent goal can do that. If you think that you can do that, then you have the opportunity to one day realize that you used to be an idiot.

I ran 1:23 HM on 40 miles/week and i am nowhere near as fast as OP, and 1:23 HM in equivalent to SUB 4 marathon. So i am sure he can at least run HM around 1:23, not sure how it will translate to sub3 on only 40m/week

I can't believe all the naysayers here. With your youth and talent, 30 mpw should be all you'd need for sub-3. If you could get closer to 40 mpw, all the better, but not necessary.

I think you could train just three days a week and go sub-3 in 13 weeks. Your build-up so far seems good. The key is a weekly long run.

Over a period of six weeks, gradually increase the long run to 20 miles, at which point your week might look like this:

Monday- Off

Tuesday- Off

Wednesday- 5 mile tempo

Thursday- Off

Friday- 5 miles

Saturday - Off

Sunday - 20 miles

Don't be duped by the argument that a long run is limited to a percentage of weekly mileage. On low mileage training, LONG RUNS plus REST DAYS equals MARATHON SUCCESS (relatively speaking, of course).

I am much less talented (mile PR 4:45, 5K 16:04, 2:40:30 marathon), and have run 3:00 marathons on 30 mpw (and less) using a schedule like this. More recently, at age 57, I ran 3:26 on only 19 mpw, three runs per week, never consecutive days (age-grades to 2:52 equivalent). I negative-split the race -- no big crash.

I decided to run that age-57 marathon only 8 weeks before the race, so a lot less time to prep than you have.

Again, I'm not saying 20 or 30 mpw is ideal, but for a young guy with decent talent, 30 mpw is certainly enough for 2:59:59. And, again, more is better -- my PR of 2:40 was off 42 mpw avg. At age 58, about 45 mpw netted 3:07 (age-grade 2:36), a nice improvement over the 19 mpw, age 57 result.

Good luck!

Great post, Allen! Do you ever race non-marathon distances too these days?

Not a good comparison.

As a 2:40 Marathoner you did the endurance work.

When you slacked off you still could do a 3 hour Marathon.

That is not the same for the OP who has never done Marathon training.

But hey, he can try and report back.

I ran 3 flat at Boston after spending winter and most of spring running maybe 70-100 mpw, getting hammered on weekends (some weekdays) and 5 hours sleep a night. Talent takes you far. Longest run might have been 16 miles once. Maybe 18. I don’t remember, but it wasn’t near 20.

STRONK wrote:Do you ever race non-marathon distances too these days?

At 61, I barely run these days. But a few years back, at 58, I raced 1-mile track, a few 5Ks, 10K, 15K, and marathon. That was after a 14-year break from racing.

Frank Shorter here wrote:Not a good comparison. As a 2:40 Marathoner you did the endurance work.

Maybe so. It just seems with OP's talent, 6:50/mi pace would be so doable for 26 miles if he just does a few 18- to 23-mile runs. It's not as if he's starting from zero. When I ran the 2:52 age-grade equivalent, I hadn't raced or seriously trained in 14 years. And I averaged only 19 mpw for the 12 weeks before the marathon (much less prior to that).

Allen you’re not wrong that some people in here are too down on him. But the long run is a huge part of this. I’ll agree that rest+long run+steady runs gets you to 80% shockingly well and quickly. Many people might have the “ability” to break 3 on 30 mpw (without years of base/training like you) but surviving the last 8 miles and enduring the distance is no guarantee. It didn’t happen for me due to some rookie errors and the inability to overcome them. The better fitness you’re in the greater leeway you give yourself. Talent is great but if your legs lock up, you’re going to drop out or start running 8-9 min miles like everyone else.

Thank you Thoughtsleader and Allen, your input is really helpful! I'm going to stress long runs as a bigger part of my weekly training,

Allen I'm glad to hear your thoughts on training 3/4 per week. In high school and college I thought the only way to be a successful runner was to run 6 days a week. But now it seems I can get into good shape and have lower injury risk if I have additional rest and recovery. And it makes sense that works well for marathon training.

I think my goal is ambitious and the last 6-8 miles will be really hard, but I also think that's suckiness is a lot of fun. I've done a couple half marathons off of no training. So I'm familiar with the feeling of your legs giving out on you the last few miles. When Kipchoge broke 2 I decided to go out and do a HM in sub 1:30 off about 5 mpw. I was on pace for 1:22 until the last few miles and ended up running a 1:27. The last few miles my legs were giving out and I averaged like 7:40s for the last 3/4 (positively split each of them haha). I'm excited to see how tough it is to hang on at the end of a marathon. And hopefully I can do another marathon this year with a stronger base after this one.

I don't mind (and expected) a fair amount of the others' negative reactions, and I agree it's a slightly irresponsible and quite ambitous goal. But I'm grateful I'm learning a lot of valuable tips from yourselves and few others!

If this was 2015, I'd swear you were a friend of mine. Same high school prs, years of injury in college, PhD program, same goal, same attempt to do it on very few miles.

He actually did it on 2 runs per week. A long run that gradually increased to about 20 miles, and a run of about 6 miles. He biked about 5x per week, though, that was the bulk of his aerobic prep. He was afraid of getting hurt again if he ran more. He ran 2:50. It's possible. You never know.

To be fair when I ran that half marathon those 5 mpw were usually from one run, I would usually go out for 1 or 2 4-5 runs per week. Which is a lot different than doing 5 1-mile runs per week.

That is pretty funny how similar his life was up to that point as mine, glad he was able to do it! I do bike as well, although less these days due to the cold/ice. I also lift a good amount and usually supplement treadmill runs with rowing machine workouts.

It’s unlikely, my training cycle of around 30-35mpw and I run around 3:05, on 6 weeks of 10mpw I did manage 3:15 so take with a pinch of salt, I am a bit older late thirties. It’s quite difficult with lack of time of feet to be able to run a quick marathon with low mileage

Take a look here....

https://bridgerridgerun.wordpress.com/2015/03/30/how-to-run-a-3-hour-marathon-a-just-enough-training-approach/#comment-14795

I ran a 3:01 using this plan in 2019.

Would I do it again? No. I've realised the importance of mileage for the mara distance, but it got me through my first marathon from a pretty low base (wasn't running consistently at all before starting the plan). It was absolutely my endurance (or lack of) that was the barrier to my going sub-3.

BUT...if you have limited time, this plan can at least help you target the time you do have effectively.

Check this out. It will help you trade off training Miles vs. pace to get to your goal. The basic finding behind it is that what counts is the average miles and training pace in the weeks before the goal race.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:Talent is great but if your legs lock up, you’re going to drop out or start running 8-9 min miles like everyone else.

To keep an "at least one marathon a year" streak going from age 22 to 35, I experimented with "absolute minimum" training. And, yeah, there were years where the last five miles were a death march.

Some years I had VERY modest goals. After months of no aerobic activity, I found the minimum "training" to break 3:45 was three total runs, beginning five weeks before the marathon. Starting with a 12-miler (had to walk some), then rest six days, 15 miles, rest six days, 18 miles, rest 13 days, run marathon.

My PR was at set at age 23 (5th marathon), followed by 20 years of experimentation (18 marathons) before getting serious, briefly, again at age 43.

It's definitely more fun to be fit, but there's an odd satisfaction in achieving silly slacker goals.

I did this! Only had time for one long run per week, and speedwork twice a week. My marathon PR was 2:45 and I was just trying to get a qualifier for Boston, and on only 25 miles per week I ended up running a 2:59:fifty something at Philly.

That was over 10 years ago...now I run 10 minutes a mile with my dog.