stan the corgi wrote:
Correlations...not actual research...this is like a fake news/Trump situation.
What correlations?
stan the corgi wrote:
Correlations...not actual research...this is like a fake news/Trump situation.
What correlations?
First, you can't believe a word out of that guy's mouth
I see the UK vaccine is being delayed to the EU
Wouldn't surprise me is this is some post brexit trick of his to slow down the EU
Ok. Where are we? We get Boris reporting that there is concern that the new strains might be more deadly. What do we do with that info? We distrust it. We refuse to believe Boris. We suspect more manipulation and excuse making. We continue shouting about the sacrifices that the common folks are suffering...
But all we can really do is properly wear filtering masks and socially isolate better, wash our hands and avoid places with little fresh air circulation. Why debate about things you can't control?
OP= Pud
So, the chance of survival for a healthy adult has gone from 99.997% to 99.996%? Chance of death now up 30% from 0.003% to 0.004%...
PANIC!
[quote]Budda wrote:
Boris had a press conference today.
Said new strain might be 30% more deadly.
And pigs may someday fly.
the give away is that nobody can agree on treatment, cures, CFR, statistics, tests, how to count, for and against lockdowns etc and yet the UK can invent figure of 30%.
Its insulting.
How humanitarian of you to think of only yourself
Stop calling it UK or British. I’m offended that we call a virus from where it comes from.....
OK.
B.1..1.7 strain then..
195 cases found in the US so far in 22 states.
Bear in mind the US have only done genomic sequencing on 0.3% of positive tests.
Apparently ramping up to do significantly more sequencing though.
From article:
Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist and member of President Joe Biden's coronavirus transition team, said he has reviewed the UK report, as well as other data that has not been publicly released, and he is "convinced" that the new variant is deadlier.
"The data is mounting -- and some of it I can't share -- that clearly supports that B.1.1.7 is causing more severe illness and increased death," said Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "Already we know this variant has increased transmission, and so this is more very bad news."
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/23/health/uk-variant-cdc-review/index.html
Potential scenario for spread of new variant in Canada from Simon Fraser University:
This assumes same mitigation/restriction levels as what is currently in place and that the new variant is 40% more transmissable (lower end of the scale as far as different estimates are concerned).
Bear in mind that if vaccines prevent transmission (and it's mounting evidence it does), it will help lower these trajectories.
http://www.sfu.ca/magpie/blog/high-transmission-variant-modelling.html
pupil3142 wrote:
the give away is that nobody can agree on treatment, cures, CFR, statistics, tests, how to count, for and against lockdowns etc and yet the UK can invent figure of 30%.
Its insulting.
It would be better to call it the Union Jack Cough. Still hard to beat the Kung Flu in terms of names.
Does anyone believe the hype on all of these new variants? First it was the Chinese strain. then it was the Italian strain, then the UK strain, then the South African strain, the California strain, now the Brazilian strain..... Does anyone buy that any one is more virulent or transmissible or are they just making that assumption based upon the fact that there were higher rates of outbreak at holiday gatherings that produced greater rates of transmission and these new variants are not that different than earlier strains. I mean we hear about all of these new strains coming here at a time when cases, hospitalizations, etc. are all declining. It reeks of hyperbole.
joed1rtty wrote:
Does anyone believe the hype on all of these new variants? First it was the Chinese strain. then it was the Italian strain, then the UK strain, then the South African strain, the California strain, now the Brazilian strain..... Does anyone buy that any one is more virulent or transmissible or are they just making that assumption based upon the fact that there were higher rates of outbreak at holiday gatherings that produced greater rates of transmission and these new variants are not that different than earlier strains. I mean we hear about all of these new strains coming here at a time when cases, hospitalizations, etc. are all declining. It reeks of hyperbole.
I'm in the UK. I suspect it is actually more transmissable and more deadly, and I normally don't trust Boris.
This was from seeing the cases grow very fast in one specific region Kent, and then move to London, which matched the strain movements. It did coincide with Christmas, so I think that made things worse as well.
I suspect it's more deadly, as it seems reasonable there would be a larger viral load in a person if it's more transmissable (I think). I'm no expect, but it feels logical. I'd like to see the data though.
s/expect/expert
joed1rtty wrote:
Does anyone believe the hype on all of these new variants? First it was the Chinese strain. then it was the Italian strain, then the UK strain, then the South African strain, the California strain, now the Brazilian strain..... Does anyone buy that any one is more virulent or transmissible or are they just making that assumption based upon the fact that there were higher rates of outbreak at holiday gatherings that produced greater rates of transmission and these new variants are not that different than earlier strains. I mean we hear about all of these new strains coming here at a time when cases, hospitalizations, etc. are all declining. It reeks of hyperbole.
9ne should I expect more transmissible strains of any virus to come out over time. Usually, however, they become less deadly, not more.
One not 9ne
trashcan wrote:
joed1rtty wrote:
Does anyone believe the hype on all of these new variants? First it was the Chinese strain. then it was the Italian strain, then the UK strain, then the South African strain, the California strain, now the Brazilian strain..... Does anyone buy that any one is more virulent or transmissible or are they just making that assumption based upon the fact that there were higher rates of outbreak at holiday gatherings that produced greater rates of transmission and these new variants are not that different than earlier strains. I mean we hear about all of these new strains coming here at a time when cases, hospitalizations, etc. are all declining. It reeks of hyperbole.
9ne should I expect more transmissible strains of any virus to come out over time. Usually, however, they become less deadly, not more.
Not sure I necessarily agree with this. Covid 19 is a new strain in itself.
trashcan wrote:
joed1rtty wrote:
Does anyone believe the hype on all of these new variants? First it was the Chinese strain. then it was the Italian strain, then the UK strain, then the South African strain, the California strain, now the Brazilian strain..... Does anyone buy that any one is more virulent or transmissible or are they just making that assumption based upon the fact that there were higher rates of outbreak at holiday gatherings that produced greater rates of transmission and these new variants are not that different than earlier strains. I mean we hear about all of these new strains coming here at a time when cases, hospitalizations, etc. are all declining. It reeks of hyperbole.
9ne should I expect more transmissible strains of any virus to come out over time. Usually, however, they become less deadly, not more.
Always
Well...... wrote:
trashcan wrote:
9ne should I expect more transmissible strains of any virus to come out over time. Usually, however, they become less deadly, not more.
Not sure I necessarily agree with this. Covid 19 is a new strain in itself.
Sorry, replace strain with variant.
The Unkle wrote:
trashcan wrote:
9ne should I expect more transmissible strains of any virus to come out over time. Usually, however, they become less deadly, not more.
Always
Eventually, perhaps..
Always, no. ---> Spanish flu.
Again. New more transmissable strains looks to have higher viral loads.
All things similar, higher viral loads are more dangerous.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19057-5