chances that LA Marathon goes in May?

Is this a troll post?

Zero percent chance this happens.

FLupda wrote:

Is this a troll post?

not at all..

curious to see if anyone thinks they will hold an in-person race in May

BAAbaablunicorn wrote:

what do you think?

will things be better by May 23rd?

May 2023 maybe.

The OC marathon just a few weeks earlier has already been postponed to fall. Granted OC is doing a little worse than LA (when accounting for LA's 5x larger pop), but I can't imagine anything but a cancellation in the next month or two. Somebody will have to be the first to go off eventually, but I find california race directors are not particularly brave and large socal counties aren't much interested in issuing event permits when ppl will just come here as beach going tourists anyways. Also vaccination is moving at a snails pace. I think the LA Marathon should go off with some mitigation strategies in place (requiring a negative test from athletes or proof of vaccination) but I think it will not go off.

Look for something in the northeast or Alaska lol.

Nay

BAAbaablunicorn wrote:

FLupda wrote:

Is this a troll post?

not at all..

curious to see if anyone thinks they will hold an in-person race in May

There is no way. There is currently a pandemic.

I would say less than 1% chance of a mass participation race as we know it happens on May 23 in LA. Maybe some form of virtual race or elite only race happens. Or maybe the LA marathon moves to Phoenix for one year like all of the youth sports.

The odds are negative 10,000

I haven't seen anything that shows Orange County is doing worse than LA with positive cases. I think the population of OC is about 3.1 million and LA County is about 10 millions, so it isn't a 5X population difference but I could be wrong.

Both areas have problem areas for sure.

Until we know that people who have had the vaccine cannot transmit the virus, I don't see big marathons until we have a lot more people vaccinated than we expect to by May.

The only chance of anything “going” in California in the next 12 months are it’s own residents, going to TX and AZ

BAAbaablunicorn wrote:

FLupda wrote:

Is this a troll post?

not at all..

curious to see if anyone thinks they will hold an in-person race in May

You should sign up then and see what happens.

Maybe you'll be the only person that signs up and you'll get the course all to yourself.

iamconfused wrote:

Zero percent chance this happens.

I'm being told by people in the organizing group they think its going to happen. Possibly modified on a number of people vs a normal year. But they think it is happening.

As a socal local I am surprised. But maybe the state is planning on leaning up as Biden takes over, I mean as we get the virus under control.

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

iamconfused wrote:

Zero percent chance this happens.

I'm being told by people in the organizing group they think its going to happen. Possibly modified on a number of people vs a normal year. But they think it is happening.

As a socal local I am surprised. But maybe the state is planning on leaning up as Biden takes over, I mean as we get the virus under control.

I don't believe this at all.

With Gov Useless and clown Garcetti . . . this race is done.

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

iamconfused wrote:

Zero percent chance this happens.

I'm being told by people in the organizing group they think its going to happen. Possibly modified on a number of people vs a normal year. But they think it is happening.

As a socal local I am surprised. But maybe the state is planning on leaning up as Biden takes over, I mean as we get the virus under control.

the website seems optimistic... wish i could be as well

I am fairly confident that come late May it would be pretty safe to hold a marathon. Currently it is estimated that by the end of the month roughly 40% of LA county residents will have acquired natural immunity (and that will only climb), and it is projected that come late may as much as 50% of the population could be vaccinated. Granted those populations aren't completely mutually exclusive, I still think case numbers will be so low by then that you won't need to hold back on anything.

Orange County is trump country and anti maskers. If they canceled there’s no way anything happens in LA county.

BAAbaablunicorn wrote:

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

I'm being told by people in the organizing group they think its going to happen. Possibly modified on a number of people vs a normal year. But they think it is happening.

As a socal local I am surprised. But maybe the state is planning on leaning up as Biden takes over, I mean as we get the virus under control.

the website seems optimistic... wish i could be as well

Like I said my information is coming from people who have spoken directly to the race organizers. I was surprised as anyone else since I can see how LA is handling COVID as a whole. But as I said there is a high level of confidence that they are having the race with some modifications to things like the start.