Tokyo 2021 Crystal Ball Distance Results

Aussiestatman wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Jimmy Gressier? He’s definitely garnered his fair share of discussion on this site, but until he runs faster than 3:36/13:15 I strongly feel, with a name like Gressier, that he should try his luck in the shampoo and conditioner business.

Not him, they had four finish under 28.15 in August last year. Three of them still young.

That’s not that fast when talking about the Olympics, and these youngsters range from 23 to 27–not that young. So I’d say no, I don’t expect “The French” to factor.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Coevett wrote:

I agree Jakob will win the 5000m, but I'll confidently predict that at least one Brit will make the final and likely finish in the top 10 (and I'm not talking about Mo).

Andrew Butchart? He was the first or last guy to miss my final—not sure how to look at it—followed by Justyn Knight. I agree that betting odds should have him more likely to make the final than Grijalva or Fisher, but he didn’t advance from the heats in 2019 or do anything to impress in 2020 (granted, 2020 is largely to blame for that). I don’t envision any of G.B.’s strong 1500 contingent moving up in distance that successfully, at least not yet.

Great Scott! I overlooked Marc Scott!

He’s looking like a finalist now if he can stay healthy. It’s obviously too soon to tell, but it could be that his 2021 campaign is about to prove “Solinsky-esque.”

Another revision I’d make to my 5k field is that I doubt Centrowitz will be in it, likely opting for the 1500 instead. It’s as if a switch flipped from summer of ‘21 being an abstract concept to the immediate future, and in that light I can’t see Centro opting to face a fairly stacked 5k field at the trials over his chances at top-3 in the 1500. In that event, Sean McGorty is looking like a smart bet for the 3rd U.S. spot, and if Grijalva could make the final then so could he.

How many of Jerry Schumacher’s BTC men will make the 5k final?

-Ahmed 80%+

-Scott 50% (“2 outcomes: either he stays healthy or he don’t”)

-Fisher 35-40%

-McGorty 25-30%

-Plus the chances of Lomong, Centro, Kincaid, Jager (not bloody likely) in the event that they contested the 5k and made the team

On the women’s side, Houlihan, Debues-Stafford and Schweizer make it even more likely that BTC puts 3 in the final.

Salazar’s scorecard never looked like this!

Scott's lookin even better pending this weekend

And imagine if Fisher goes sub 13!

I reckon his 3:36/7:37/13:11/27:11 PRs will be chopped down this year

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Before anyone asks, there were 16 5k finalists because Ahmed was shoved by one or more Ingebrigtsens in the prelims, fell to the track and was admitted to the final on appeal.

?

John Wesley Harding wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Before anyone asks, there were 16 5k finalists because Ahmed was shoved by one or more Ingebrigtsens in the prelims, fell to the track and was admitted to the final on appeal.

?

Yes, yes I'll give you your props for that one. That was quite funny, and likely.

Really? You predict that the man who set the 5000m world record less than a year prior won't even be able to medal in the 5000m? That's a pretty harsh prediction! Personally I'd definitely go with a Cheptegei double gold. But even as a Brit, I can't disagree with your placement of Farah. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if he picked up an injury weeks before and withdrew from the Olympics altogether...

I am reading, going back to ranking the top 3 women 2015-2020 over the 5000, 10000, and Marathon.

Convince me to change any of these so far:

5000m, 2015- Ayana, G Dibaba, S Teferi

2016-Ayana, Vivian C, Obiri

10000m, 2015- Vivian C, G Burka, Huddle

2016- Ayana, Vivian C, T Dibaba

Marathon, 2015- M Dibaba, G Cherono, Keitany

2016- F Kiplagat, Tsegaye, E Kiplagat

Aussiestatman wrote:

I am reading, going back to ranking the top 3 women 2015-2020 over the 5000, 10000, and Marathon.

Convince me to change any of these so far:

5000m, 2015- Ayana, G Dibaba, S Teferi

2016-Ayana, Vivian C, Obiri

10000m, 2015- Vivian C, G Burka, Huddle

2016- Ayana, Vivian C, T Dibaba

Marathon, 2015- M Dibaba, G Cherono, Keitany

2016- F Kiplagat, Tsegaye, E Kiplagat

Adding 2017:

5000- Obiri, Ayana, Hassan

10000- Ayana, T Dibaba, Tirop

Marathon- Keitany, T Dibaba, R Chelimo

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

I am reading, going back to ranking the top 3 women 2015-2020 over the 5000, 10000, and Marathon.

Convince me to change any of these so far:

5000m, 2015- Ayana, G Dibaba, S Teferi

2016-Ayana, Vivian C, Obiri

10000m, 2015- Vivian C, G Burka, Huddle

2016- Ayana, Vivian C, T Dibaba

Marathon, 2015- M Dibaba, G Cherono, Keitany

2016- F Kiplagat, Tsegaye, E Kiplagat

Adding 2017:

5000- Obiri, Ayana, Hassan

10000- Ayana, T Dibaba, Tirop

Marathon- Keitany, T Dibaba, R Chelimo

Looks pretty good to me, Statman. I might put Keitany over E. Kiplagat in 2016, even though she laid an egg in London, but I see no serious issues.

On a more or less unrelated note, it’s interesting that Faith Kipyegon ran 14:31 back in 2015 but hasn’t raced a 5k since that year. Seems like even if she could never break 14:20, she’d be a major threat at that distance in championship races.

Thanks for the input.

2018:

5000 Obiri, Hassan, Gidey.

10000 No world class races to be able to provide rankings.

marathon Vivian C., Kosgei, G. Cherono

10,000

1. Letesenbet Gidey ?? 29:55.59?

2. Agnes Tirop ?? 30:04.23?

3. Sifan Hassan ?? 30:06.97?

4. Konstanze Klosterhalfen ?? 30:25.30

5. Yalemzerf Yehualaw ?? 30:26.27

6. Rosemary Wanjiru ?? 30:29.44

7. Karissa Schweizer ?? 30:29.63

8. Sheila Chelangat ?? 30:40.71

9. Hitomi Niiya ?? 30:46.72

10. Emily Sisson ?? 30:48.07

11. Tsehay Gemechu ?? 30:48.56

12. Elise Cranny ?? 30:49.11

13. Yasemin Can ?? 30:56.70

14. Karoline Grovdal ?? 31:03.82

15. Eilish McColgan ?? 31:05.54

16. Alinah Reh ?? 31:13.65

17. Nozomi Tanaka ?? 31:17.15

18. Camille Buscomb ?? 31:20.68

19. Susan Krumins ?? 31:25.32

20. Stephanie Twell ?? 31:28.33

Kilometer splits:

1k 3:05 (Niiya)

2k 6:10 (Niiya) (3:05)

3k 9:14 (Gidey) (3:04)

4k 12:22 (Niiya) (3:08)

5k 15:22 (Gidey) (3:00)

6k 18:23 (Yehualaw) (3:01)

7k 21:19 (Gidey) (2:56)

8k 24:14 (Gidey) (2:55)

9k 27:06 (Gidey) (2:52)

10k 29:55 (Gidey) (2:49)

5,000

1. Letesenbet Gidey ?? 14:17.70 ?

2. Helen Obiri ?? 14:18.44 ?

3. Sifan Hassan ?? 14:19.23?

4. Agnes Tirop ?? 14:19.91

5. Shelby Houlihan ?? 14:28.51

6. Margaret Kipkemboi ?? 14:29.10

7. Lemlem Hailu ?? 14:31.88

8. Konstanze Klosterhalfen ?? 14:32.02

9. Karissa Schweizer ?? 14:33.89

10. Laura Weightman ?? 14:37.19

11. Fantu Worku ?? 14:38.75

12. Jessica Hull ?? 14:41.23

13. Elise Cranny ?? 14:46.24

14. Melissa Courtney-Bryant ?? 14:55.76

15. Sarah Chelangat ?? 14:59.68

Lap splits:

400 65.3 (Gidey)

800 2:12.4 (Gidey) (67.1)

1200 3:22.8 (Gidey) (70.4)

1600 4:34.2 (Obiri) (71.4)

2000 5:45.2 (Hailu) (71.0)

2400 6:56.2 (Hailu) (71.0)

2800 8:06.9 (Klosterhalfen) (70.7)

3200 9:16.9 (Obiri) (70.0)

3600 10:24.4 (Gidey) (67.5)

4000 11:32.1 (Gidey) (67.7)

4400 12:40.8 (Gidey) (68.7)

4800 13:46.4 (Gidey) (65.6)

5000 14:17.7 (Gidey) (31.3)

Kilometer splits:

1k 2:47.2 (Gidey)

2k 5:45.2 (Hailu) (2:58.0)

3k 8:42.0 (Klosterhalfen) (2:56.8)

4k 11:32.1 (Gidey) (2:50.1)

5k 14:17.7 (Gidey) (2:45.6)

You should do one for the women since the qualifiers are updated now from the last few races.

emr0129 wrote:

You should do one for the women since the qualifiers are updated now from the last few races.

U serious dawg? Look at the post directly above yours.

Obiri wants to double. Maybe he’s saying updated based on that?

jaboukomobile wrote:

Obiri wants to double. Maybe he’s saying updated based on that?

I don’t think so; I doubt he read the last post on the thread.

Link to Obiri saying she wants to double? Even if she just expressly stated that, I’m not gonna redo my predictions, if you can call ‘em that. If I need an excuse, it’s that I can imagine Athletics Kenya not selecting her for the 10k based on her 5th place finish in that event in Doha, as foolish as that would be.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

emr0129 wrote:

You should do one for the women since the qualifiers are updated now from the last few races.

U serious dawg? Look at the post directly above yours.

Sorry I don't know how I missed that .. it must not have loaded on mobile.

emr0129 wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

U serious dawg? Look at the post directly above yours.

Sorry I don't know how I missed that .. it must not have loaded on mobile.

It’s all good! Actually pretty cool that you suggested it right after I’d finally gotten around to doing it. We must be on a similar wavelength. Thoughts on my women’s “results”?

JWH, like the predictions.

In the 5000, I think you are missing Muktar Edris. I know his form and fitness is rarely certain, but if he's on the line he's got a lethal kick.

I also think Nicholas Kimeli deserves more shine. He ran 12:51 going out with Cheptegei in the record race. He might not medal but he will be in the mix and likely within a second or two of Bronze. I don't think he will be losing to Grant Fisher in any universe.

Also, I can't get on the Jakob train. His racing awareness is just so bad. Until he doesn't do it, I'm going to assume he will try risky and dumb inside passes, get involved in elbowing as he wastes energy, and run wide at critical points of the race. I think he will have the fitness to win gold but 3rd or 4th are much more likely. Kiplimo, Cheptegei and Barega don't make the same weird mistakes and possess similar fitness.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

JWH, like the predictions.

In the 5000, I think you are missing Muktar Edris. I know his form and fitness is rarely certain, but if he's on the line he's got a lethal kick.

I also think Nicholas Kimeli deserves more shine. He ran 12:51 going out with Cheptegei in the record race. He might not medal but he will be in the mix and likely within a second or two of Bronze. I don't think he will be losing to Grant Fisher in any universe.

Also, I can't get on the Jakob train. His racing awareness is just so bad. Until he doesn't do it, I'm going to assume he will try risky and dumb inside passes, get involved in elbowing as he wastes energy, and run wide at critical points of the race. I think he will have the fitness to win gold but 3rd or 4th are much more likely. Kiplimo, Cheptegei and Barega don't make the same weird mistakes and possess similar fitness.[/quote]

Thanks for the input.

For Edris, even though he’s the two-time defending world champ, I still think the odds-on bet is that he’s not on the start line. We’ll see, Ethiopia could make an exception for him based on those golds even if he doesn’t place top-3 in a trials or impress on the circuit.

You could be right about Kimeli. He had just turned 21 the day before placing 8th in Doha, 4 seconds behind bronze. He has yet to prove he has the finishing speed and tactical savvy to compete for a medal, but that can easily be ascribed to his age and inexperience. It seems totally up in the air as to whether 12:51 will remain his lifetime best, a footnote to Cheptegei’s WR, or whether he’s destined to break Komen’s national record.

I feel better about putting Fisher 9th in 13:04 now than I had any right to two months ago. Sure, I would rank Kimeli above him if acting as objectively as possible, but I’m allowing for a little imagination, with some minor upsets and lackluster performances.

At this point I figure Jakob will score a global outdoor gold at some point, and that this could just as soon be the year. I think he’s gonna peak right about now, or the next couple years, as opposed to age 26-28. Even if in absolute terms (time trials) he’s stronger at 1500 than 5k, the 5k might be his best event in a championship setting. I do rather enjoy your completely fair Jakob-bashing, though—I’m not really a fan.

As for the women, the fact I’m not really a fan of Hassan is admittedly why I have her settling for two bronzes, even after her ridiculously dope races in Doha and last year’s 29:36.