Tokyo 2021 Crystal Ball Distance Results

Pretty good predictions. How long do you think Farah will hang with the lead pack?

Jakob is always going to be beaten by Kiplimo any distance over 1500m. The 5000m is possible but incredibly unreasonable, the 10000m is much more realistic.

JWH, you prove once again why you are my favorite poster on this site. I love this stuff.

Couple of things I noticed:

1. What’s with Wale in the 5k? Is he really that talented that Ethiopia would let him double back from the steeple? I suppose if he really finished 5th place all would be well, but I haven’t seen anything indicating he had such a performance in him

2. No Edris in the 5k? My man cleans up that event so don’t know why he’d opt to run 10k instead

3. I’d say Mo Ahmed more likely to medal 5k, miss out on 10k, rather than what you have. 12:47 did that for me. Plus I don’t see him being the highest finishing Mo in the 10.

4. Intentional or not, putting Jakob I in gold should get some passionate responses from certain members of the faithful.

You do realize that Rhonex Kipruto went 26:24 on the road, eight months after his 26:50, yes?

hr measurement wrote:

You do realize that Rhonex Kipruto went 26:24 on the road, eight months after his 26:50, yes?

Kenyans have trouble in the olympics due to crackdown on doping and hookies at the village distracting them.

There's this thing called heat and humidity, both are pretty bad in Tokyo early August. And no the stadium is not air-conditioned like Doha. The times that you listed won't happen.

Can't see Ingebrigtsen winning a 5K at that pace. No way he outkicks Kiplimo, Cheptegei, Barega, AND Edris (why would he not run the 5K???) in anything faster than 13:20.

As for the 10K, I doubt Ahmed will beat the likes of Kandie, Kipruto, or even Kejelcha (assuming Kejelcha can replicate his 2018 and 2019 shape). As other(s) have mentioned, I think he has a greater chance at a medal in the 5K. I agree with Cheptegei and Kiplimo on top, though.

Pleased to see these. interesting picks for sure, will drop my own in this thread

hr measurement wrote:

You do realize that Rhonex Kipruto went 26:24 on the road, eight months after his 26:50, yes?

Yeah.

dmitlof1 wrote:

Pretty good predictions. How long do you think Farah will hang with the lead pack?

I see him falling off hard in the 8th K before rebounding slightly in the last 800.

so GOOD wrote:

Can't see Ingebrigtsen winning a 5K at that pace. No way he outkicks Kiplimo, Cheptegei, Barega, AND Edris (why would he not run the 5K???) in anything faster than 13:20.

As for the 10K, I doubt Ahmed will beat the likes of Kandie, Kipruto, or even Kejelcha (assuming Kejelcha can replicate his 2018 and 2019 shape). As other(s) have mentioned, I think he has a greater chance at a medal in the 5K. I agree with Cheptegei and Kiplimo on top, though.

We shall see, but I basically disagree with everything you said.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

hr measurement wrote:

You do realize that Rhonex Kipruto went 26:24 on the road, eight months after his 26:50, yes?

Yeah.

And you know we can't attribute his faster road time to high-stack carbon plate 'super-shoes', since he was racing in an Adidas flat, correct?

KT1 wrote:

Jakob is always going to be beaten by Kiplimo any distance over 1500m. The 5000m is possible but incredibly unreasonable, the 10000m is much more realistic.

What are you trying to say?

hr measurement wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Yeah.

And you know we can't attribute his faster road time to high-stack carbon plate 'super-shoes', since he was racing in an Adidas flat, correct?

?

Yeah...

Thank you.

Obviously, anything that seems like a conjectural curveball is less than likely to happen. That said, I started looking at Wale as a world-beating prospect in the flat events after he ran 7:32i to beat Barega last February, while still listed as 19 years old. I figured maybe he’d used the comparatively weak (especially among the Ethiopian contingent) steeplechase as a springboard to recognition, but would ultimately break out as a star in the more glamorous events. I did not know however that he just raced the steeple at the “Olympic candidate trial competition” in Addis Ababa on Saturday, which makes my prediction much less likely.

Remember, he wouldn’t have even started in that event at 2019 WCs if he didn’t have “wildcard” entry as defending champ, and nobody expected him to win. There has been a 2-time defending 5k world champ who didn’t make the cut for the next year’s Olympics before (Ismael Kirui), so it’s not unprecedented. Edris has plenty endurance, with a World XC bronze and a recent 59:04 half marathon performance. Finally, the Ethiopian federation has been known to make questionable decisions, like in 2013 when Kenenisa won what was advertised as the Ethiopian 10k WC trials at Pre but was snubbed from the squad (and later that year outkicked Farah at the GNR) or in 2019 when Kejelcha and Gebrhiwet were surprised to find themselves in only the 10k. You’re right, it probably won’t play out like I have it, but it’s certainly conceivable.

I realize Ahmed’s WC medal is at 5k and 12:47 is his strongest PB, but I don’t really get this, as I don’t think endurance is a limiting factor for Ahmed up through 10k. If anything, his speed has been called into question, though it looked like he was good for 3:33.x for 1500 last summer, so that’s pretty capable. I guess I believe he’s more likely to medal in whichever event comes first in the schedule.

I’ll take Ahmed over Farah on the track any day from 2019 onward, but only time will tell.

Hehehe ?

What about the French?

John Wesley Harding wrote:

5,000

1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen ?? 12:58.18 ?

2. Jacob Kiplimo ?? 12:58.36?

3. Selemon Barega ?? 12:59.14?

4. Joshua Cheptegei ?? 13:00.87

5. Getnet Wale ?? 13:01.40

6. Mohammed Ahmed ?? 13:02.03

7. Stewart McSweyn ?? 13:02.57

8. Jacob Krop ?? 13:03.19

9. Grant Fisher ?? 13:04.67

10. Nicholas Kimeli ?? 13:05.03

11. Paul Chelimo ?? 13:09.00

12. Matt Centrowitz ?? 13:10.56

13. Morgan McDonald ?? 13:10.75

14. Luis Grijalva ?? 13:12.52

15. Yemaneberhan Crippa ?? 13:18.09

16. Telahun Haile Bekele ?? 14:16.84

I agree Jakob will win the 5000m, but I'll confidently predict that at least one Brit will make the final and likely finish in the top 10 (and I'm not talking about Mo).

Coevett wrote:

I agree Jakob will win the 5000m, but I'll confidently predict that at least one Brit will make the final and likely finish in the top 10 (and I'm not talking about Mo).

Andrew Butchart? He was the first or last guy to miss my final—not sure how to look at it—followed by Justyn Knight. I agree that betting odds should have him more likely to make the final than Grijalva or Fisher, but he didn’t advance from the heats in 2019 or do anything to impress in 2020 (granted, 2020 is largely to blame for that). I don’t envision any of G.B.’s strong 1500 contingent moving up in distance that successfully, at least not yet.

Aussiestatman wrote:

What about the French?

Jimmy Gressier? He’s definitely garnered his fair share of discussion on this site, but until he runs faster than 3:36/13:15 I strongly feel, with a name like Gressier, that he should try his luck in the shampoo and conditioner business.