Predict my future times based on my 9th/10th grade PRs

Spring track this year looks promising for you.

You've barely improved so probably still slow.

Barely varsity 7 wrote:

9th XC 5k: 21:45... indoor track 800- 2:35, 1600- 6:15

10th XC 5k: 20:30... track time trials so far 1600- 5:50, 800- unknown yet (hopefully sub 2:30)

Please predict what you think I'll run in the XC 5k, 1600, and 800 by my senior year if I keep on improving. (I am a female, 5'3" and 107 pounds, live on the East coast) I'll also post my PRs as I get them so that people can see how close they were if they want!

You probably should show your mileage each year and the mileage you expect to do your junior and senior years. You improved your 5K time quite a bit so maybe set a goal of 18:30 by the end of your senior year. Maybe 5:10 in the 1600 by the end of your senior year.

I'm transferring schools within my state next school year so uncertain, but 9-10 was probably 30 -> 36mpw. Hopefully mid 40s by senior year? My average XC5k 9th grade was 22:30, 10th grade was 20:50 if that helps

yhwh wrote:

Spring track this year looks promising for you.

Thanks! :) Hope so!

Sham 69 wrote:

You've barely improved so probably still slow.

I like to think I have :( my 30 minute tempos are about 30 sec faster per mile and my easy pace has gotten faster. But XC5ks are not my strong suit :,) but yeah I just hope sub 20 maybe

18:50, 5:18 and 2:19

Hindu Kushster wrote:

18:50, 5:18 and 2:19

Probably a reasonable guess. Maybe a tad optimistic, maybe not.

And can someone get rid of the tool called Sham 69? He contributed nothing of use here.

5:22 for 1600

2:18.37 for 800

Focus on the 800, you're very good at that relative to the other times.

Make sure you do hills and strides and still work on your endurance. Then you'll put together that strength and speed and make yourself a good 800m man.

This Spring I think you'll go under 2:20

ack I accidentally typed man when you're a woman, my bad I even read through the thread and everything too lol.

But I seriously think that the 800 is your strong suit and you show a lot of talent in it. If you continue to work on your speed, nothing too crazy you got a bright future ahead.

Sham 69 wrote:

You've barely improved so probably still slow.

Keep in mind that this guy is 18. Which means:

1) Ignore what he says.

2) Watch out for guys like him in HS/college/life and avoid them.

cramister wrote:

ack I accidentally typed man when you're a woman, my bad I even read through the thread and everything too lol.

But I seriously think that the 800 is your strong suit and you show a lot of talent in it. If you continue to work on your speed, nothing too crazy you got a bright future ahead.

Thanks so much! :) If I can get sub 2:20 that would be insane for me.

Yeah, taking over a minute off your 5k time in one year. Good for you. I would say, if you stay with it you should keep improving. At your age you are maturing physically a lot every year. Your biggest risk will be trying to do too much to fast & getting injured. In high school I would aim to keep building as solid a base as possible. I'd stay at 10k & below until college. Good Luck! & have fun.

How was your training formatted during that period? It’s difficult for me to make any determination on where you might be without knowing a little more.

Also, what do you know about the training at the school you are transferring to?

otter wrote:

How was your training formatted during that period? It’s difficult for me to make any determination on where you might be without knowing a little more.

Also, what do you know about the training at the school you are transferring to?

Just about nothing. I'm only transferring because I'm moving :( it's a small school but has produced a few D1 runners from what I have heard

otter wrote:

How was your training formatted during that period? It’s difficult for me to make any determination on where you might be without knowing a little more.

And I run 6x a week, about 36 mpw now. Maybe I'll go up to 45 by the end of hs? Not much more, if I do get there. My training is hard/easy every other day now. Start on easy & end on hard.

oldburgrunner wrote:

Yeah, taking over a minute off your 5k time in one year. Good for you. I would say, if you stay with it you should keep improving. At your age you are maturing physically a lot every year. Your biggest risk will be trying to do too much to fast & getting injured. In high school I would aim to keep building as solid a base as possible. I'd stay at 10k & below until college. Good Luck! & have fun.

Thanks! :)

oldschoollrc wrote:

5:22 for 1600

2:18.37 for 800

Thanks so much! :)