Countries which are doing the best in terms of vaccination right now are also doing the worse in terms of daily deaths now?

I don't have the information on this or know whether this is a real correlation, but a possibility is that those who are vaccinated aren't getting tested, so with more vaccinations, the higher the rate rises out of the sample population.

They have only started vaccinations a few weeks ago and still have 90% + of the population to go. Takes 2 weeks to work and is not going to work if you have it.

You won't see any effect for at least a month.

Don't talk about something you know nothing about.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

They have only started vaccinations a few weeks ago and still have 90% + of the population to go. Takes 2 weeks to work and is not going to work if you have it.

You won't see any effect for at least a month.

Don't talk about something you know nothing about.

+1

Mean time to death for COVID is 21 days. Most of the current rise in deaths can be attributed to holiday gatherings. Impact of vaccinations won’t show up in the stats for about three more weeks (after people get 2nd shots). Although there is not great data on what effects vaccinations will have on people that already had COVID, so it will be interesting to see if there are any adverse events in that sub group. One interesting thing that came out of the capitol riots is a number of congressional representatives that had received their first vaccine tested positive for COVID after the riots (the vaccine is alleged to be 50% effective after one dose). Hopefully this stuff works and we can get back to normal sooner than later.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

Don't talk about something you know nothing about.

Please follow your own advice and stay away from running-related threads.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

They have only started vaccinations a few weeks ago and still have 90% + of the population to go. Takes 2 weeks to work and is not going to work if you have it.

You won't see any effect for at least a month.

Don't talk about something you know nothing about.

Good idea. I suggest the same for you

I think its pretty obvious that some of the country's you mentioned had strict lockdowns. They kicked the can down the road and now the restless population is spreading the virus around. Some of the country's with lower death rates as of now had more spread in the first 6 months and have less spread due to a level of population immunity.

Israel and the UK had the virus bounce back in a big way after a lockdown slowed transmission during the fall. Increased cases are driving deaths in those countries. In the UK the new variant does appear to be driving transmission.

Denmark had a peak mid December and is getting cases under control. Deaths lag by @ 21 days. So Denmark is still seeing relatively high rates of death.

Germany's lockdown this fall was very watered down compared to the spring. Travel in Germany was much higher this fall than during the spring. Thus, Germans have only managed to contain the outbreak and have pretty much been on a plateau since mid November with deaths hitting a plateau in mid December.

France beat back the virus and had infections peak in early November. Deaths peaked mid to late November. Since then, France has managed to hold the line and neither infections nor deaths have surged back. Italy has a similar trajectory.

Spain is seeing a new surge, but it is only two weeks into it and deaths have not surged yet.

All of the foregoing aligns very neatly with the timing of lockdowns, reopening, new variants, etc. Vaccination efforts in the UK, Israel, Denmark, and Germany are too new and few to have any affect either way at this point. Most of the vaccinations are just now hitting the 14 day mark and very few are on the second does.

It will take until at least mid March before we can really get an idea on how the vaccines are doing. And even then, most places will not have enough coverage to get to HIT. Maybe a small country like Israel will be a good test case. But the big EU countries will need more time to get coverage.

There's no evidence for population immunity high enough to suppress infections noticeably except for in like.. Manaus. You guys just have all these things you wish were true. Sweden was going to be your proof for "herd immunity" but now it's worse than all it's neighbors despite its high infection rate in the Spring. Please learn when to stop talking!

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

I think its pretty obvious that some of the country's you mentioned had strict lockdowns. They kicked the can down the road and now the restless population is spreading the virus around. Some of the country's with lower death rates as of now had more spread in the first 6 months and have less spread due to a level of population immunity.

Too early to see any significant change in cases due to the Vaccine.

If you DO want to look at cases since we administered the vaccine, you'll actually see they're going down in the last week. Of course this is mostly due to lockdown and no big events like Christmas.

But you'll see over time that the cases continue to go down and in a couple of weeks so will the deaths. With the rollout of the vaccine to more and more vulnerable people, these numbers will just drop right down.

I'll make a prediction - the 7 day rolling average of deaths will not increase from the end of this month onwards... ever. It will decrease in Feb and absolutely plummet as we go into March.

The reason the UK has high deaths but also great vaccine is that Boris Johnson is a populist - so when there's a clear path that everyone agrees on (making a vaccine, testing it, rolling it out) he is right on board and pushes the country in the right direction.

But when there's any decision that isn't immediately obvious, then he dilly dallies until the circumstances change and the decision is made for him . He could have saved maybe 50K lives by locking down faster in March and November last year. The scientists recommended it but he was hearing dissenting voices from his party, so he delayed until it was too late

I posted a lengthier explanation in a different thread and it got deleted, so here’s the short version: COVID is a bioweapon meant to control an out of control world population. The COVID vaccine is a bioweapon meant to clean up those who aren’t killed by the “disease” and who are stupid enough to buy into the fear.

My theory will “sort of” be confirmed if the countries who start vaccination after the end of the second wave do better overall in the first half of 2021 than countries who started with decent level of vaccination in December.

The logic is that if people get vaccinated when they have lower chance of catching COVID (after end of second wave), then the chance of them becoming asymptomatic (due to fact that their symptoms have been attenuated by vaccine) super spreaders is lower.

It sounds counterintuitive, but that is the resultant.

Of course, Israel should do better overall in first half of year. They will simply have a tough Jan and Feb, but come Mar or Apr, they will be king... quick vaccination is the way to go (I think), but a luxury which is not available to all.

I think that if you can’t do that, waiting for End of Feb or Mar to start vaccination would be better.

It’s a theory of course...

We shall see...

Gibraltar is another great test case. It is now the European country with the highest per capita vaccination. Very small population. They started vaccination on Jan 10. Now over 32% of the population is vaccinated (Israel is now somewhere between 35% and 45% of the population vaccinated). Before Jan 10th, they had a total of 10 COVID deaths since the beginning of the pandemic.

Death count as of today (20 days later) is 70... and Gibraltar is now the European country with the highest COVID death per capita. Of course, like Israel, they should be fine by March as they probably will have vaccinated 100% of the population by then. The initial hike (post start of heavy vaccination program) seems to be consistent (my assumption of course is that vaccinated people who catch COVID but are now asymptomatic may be infecting non vaccinated people, but there could be another explanation ).

On the other hand, a country like Bulgaria who has only vaccinated 0.1% of its population at this point is seeing the opposite. Their daily death counts have been steadily going down every day in January (as flu season is ending).

BTW: for those of you that are interested, please note that Israel daily death counts may have now reached a peak (the 7 day average death had been climbing every day in January). It should start coming down slowly now.

Vaccinated having less symptoms (perhaps even being completely asymptomatic) and becoming super spreaders as vaccination did not prevent transmission.

It’s funny that this is becoming news/being proven now (almost 2 years later), when data seemed to be indicating this (in my mind) back in January 2021 (approx 1 month after vaccines were released to the general population).

A little bit late to be “news”. No?

Nice post mortem analysis, but rather late…

January 2021 would have perhaps been a better time to analyze this.

Move along. Nothing to see here.

Rojo and mods delete this crap immediately