Covid has to start running out of gas soon.

I went into the article and then the most reliable source for it. . The most reliable data point was an increase in drug overdoses of 834/month over the expected increase. The only data we have for this is April/may/June. If we were to prorate that out over 10 months that is 8340 deaths over the course of 2020. Prorating it out is a big leap (anxiety usually occurs BEFORE an unpleasant event more than during it), but reasonable to discuss. How much of that was due to social distancing vs loved ones dying ov Covid? I doubt we will ever know.

A separate factor in NCED could be elderly couples where one is largely taking care of the other and then dies due to Covid. The less functional person now cannot stay at home and may rapidly decline.

I did some simple calculations to get that number which I can discuss if someone goes to the article and doesn’t get the 834 figure. I think any other numbers are even more of a reach.
Here is the overdose data
https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2020/han00438.asp

[quote]2600 bro wrote:
There's basically no model where a vaccine does not decrease transmission significantly.

Yep. Kill and immobilize enuff folks with this poison and less people get Covid

Covid went way after the election.
Just like people said it would.

Deaths probably will peak shortly, and cases look like they already have.. Obviously not due to Biden, but rather the general trend and the end of the post-holiday bump.

"Covid" will be over as soon as Biden takes office, this way they can claim he "saved" the economy. The whole thing is a scam, and if you haven't realized that by now then there is no hope for you. Stop watching CNN and mainstream news propaganda. I was in urgent care and the ER recently (for something else) and both doctors I saw talked about Covid and testing as a complete joke. Also, the ER was completely empty.

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shifty principles wrote:

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trashcan wrote:
2600 bro, you are correct, the support for significant asymptomatic spread from vaccinated people has been decimated.

I was arguing the side “we don’t know if it will prevent transmission” but separate info on the moderna and Pfizer vaccine has come in recently showing extremely encouraging data about a high degree of transmission prevention.

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Care to expand on that? I’ve been expecting this but haven’t seen much published.

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I should say, re 2600 and models I don’t think it is safe to use models based on old mechanisms and apply them to interventions with new mechanisms which may make them deviate from the performance of old models. In this case further clinical data supported the hypothesis that the mRNA vaccines successfully prevent transmission. In short, I agree with the conclusion, if not the reasoning.

Budda recently started a thread titled promising vaccine results I think. That was based on the Pfizer results. I will apologize for clogging the thread with a repost on Moderna, but here goes


After finding the following quote in the New England Journal I am certainly feeling better about the Moderna Vaccine (and almost certainly the Pfizer vaccine reducing spread)

in addition to symptomatic Covid-19 cases 39 (0.3%) in the placebo group and 15 (0.1%) in the mRNA-1273 group had nasopharyngeal swabs that were positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR at the second dose visit (surveillance swab) but had no evidence of Covid-19 symptoms (Table S18).

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389

If it is coming from a nasal swab, that means that mucosal immunity is being addressed. And note this is only after 1 injection, so the immune system was far from reaching its full response. i think Harambe might have referred to this, but I didn't fully understand the context until reading the article. Awfully hard to spread the virus if you have none, even in your mucosa

I think this is the source of information for Buddha’s thread.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-data-shows-50-reduction-in-infections-14-days-after-first-vaccine-shot/

The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are almost certain to perform very similarly.

None of this is ideal, primary data point research, but for what it is, it shows an extraordinarily strong trend.

The below is cut and pasted from John Campbell's show notes on today's update.
Most interesting numbers for me:
Only 22% have been infected based on antibodies (as per january 11th)
52,5% of US population willing to take vaccine...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at-ZqpSRL_c

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/defau...

http://www.healthdata.org/covid

COVID-19 Results Briefing: United States of America

Current situation

Effective R, greater than 1 in 27 states

Effective R is less than 1 in most of the midwest

Estimated, 22% have been infected as of January 11

US population, 328 million

Therefore number of infections = 72,160,000

Factor of 3 more

Therefore IFR = 0.48%

CFR = 1,67%

Trends

Deaths, 567,000 by May 1

This represents 192,000 additional deaths from January 11 to May 1

Likely peak at the beginning of February

Daily deaths will peak at 3,680 on February 1, 2021

Steady decline after the peak

Reaching below 500 a day sometime in April

Factors, seasonality and the scale-up of vaccination

By May 1, some states may be close to herd immunity

If more transmissible variants spread in the US in the coming weeks

Peak could be delayed by weeks

Death toll substantially increased

Hospitals in many states will be under severe stress in the next four weeks

To reduce deaths, masks, some social distancing mandates, rapid scale-up of vaccination

Drivers and prevention

Mobility continues to decline, 33% lower than the pre-COVID-19 baseline

Visits to restaurants and department stores up substantially from the weeks prior.

As of January 11, 76% of people always wore a mask when leaving their home

All states had mask use over 50%.

US, 52.5% of people say they would accept a vaccine, 24.1% unsure

We expect, 141 to 179 million people will be vaccinated by May 1

Projections

By May 1, 2021, we project that 37,800 to 51,100 lives will be saved by the vaccine rollout

Compared to a no-vaccine scenario

If universal mask coverage (95%), 31,000 fewer cumulative deaths on May 1, 2021

Mandates easing scenario, 621,000 cumulative deaths on May 1, 2021

January to May, 42 states will have high or extreme stress on hospital beds

January to May, 45 states will have high or extreme stress on ICU capacity

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/w...

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trashcan wrote:
Budda recently started a thread titled promising vaccine results I think. That was based on the Pfizer results. I will apologize for clogging the thread with a repost on Moderna, but here goes


After finding the following quote in the New England Journal I am certainly feeling better about the Moderna Vaccine (and almost certainly the Pfizer vaccine reducing spread)

in addition to symptomatic Covid-19 cases 39 (0.3%) in the placebo group and 15 (0.1%) in the mRNA-1273 group had nasopharyngeal swabs that were positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR at the second dose visit (surveillance swab) but had no evidence of Covid-19 symptoms (Table S18).

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389

If it is coming from a nasal swab, that means that mucosal immunity is being addressed. And note this is only after 1 injection, so the immune system was far from reaching its full response. i think Harambe might have referred to this, but I didn't fully understand the context until reading the article. Awfully hard to spread the virus if you have none, even in your mucosa

I think this is the source of information for Buddha’s thread.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-data-shows-50-reduction-in-infections-14-days-after-first-vaccine-shot/

The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are almost certain to perform very similarly.

None of this is ideal, primary data point research, but for what it is, it shows an extraordinarily strong trend.

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My town finally reached a point of herd immunity. In spite of no change in restrictions (other than a loosening if restrictions as they allowed us to start soccer practices and in person school again), our positivity rate plunged from the teens down below 3% in the past few weeks (in spite of the fact that environmental conditions still favor transmission and will for the next two months). As I predicted, the vaccines are rolling out at a point where we no longer have a need for them. Our overall death rate topped out at a little over 0.2%, which is in-line with the 0.26% IFR I have been adhering to for months and which seems to fit the data seen elsewhere.

I have only found about a half dozen counties in Georgia, Arizona and New Mexico where the threshold has been exceeded and this is typically due to geriatric populations, high rates of obesity or high rates of alcoholism or high percentages of native American populations.

Early County, GA was one of the counties that exceeded the threshold, but it also has a 44% obesity rate, a high premature death rate (and this is true for previous years as well), etc. You can get interesting health information from this site:

https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/app/georgia/2020/rankings/early/county/outcomes/overall/snapshot
There is a lot more involved in COVID deaths than simply just COVID.

Again contending that 80+% of people in some places have been infected. Going to need to see evidence of that besides magical back-calculations from conveniently low IFRs

Numbers dropping slightly in LA, both hospitalizations and deaths. Vaccine lines long every day. I believe the tide is turning.

We've seen multiple waves come and go in a lot of different places. Thinking that a decline in infections has anything to do with herd immunity is delusional. There have been neither enough infections nor enough vaccinations yet.