no JAmp? wrote:
The best estimate of IFR that I have seen is 0.26% and most behavior I have seen tends to follow that threshold. Using that figure would put us at about 148,000,000 cases, which is fairly close to the number you have posited, which puts us at about a 45-50% exposure rate. Now that they are starting to vaccinate the 70+ crowd (who account for about 80% of COVID deaths), we should start to see a significant decline in deaths in a month or two. There are a number of cities and counties in the US that are already pretty much at herd immunity.
Take for example NYC, that has only seen an approximate 8% increase in its deaths since November (as opposed to many cities that have seen their death total double or more over that same time interval). Pull up NYC under the jurisdiction on the CDC excess deaths website and you will visually be able to see this in play:
You....using .....the CDC.....excess death totals....? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
admitting that total deaths in the US are waaaaaay up?
admitting that covid is actually killing hundreds of thousands.....probably even more than the Covid death numbers show?
I guess even the deniers have to come around eventually.....
I'm not a denier, but I am a realist. I've been referring to CDC data like the excess death website for most of the pandemic (in fact the IFR value was from the CDC earlier in the pandemic) and I stand by my position that the economic damage from our over reaction will be far more severe than COVID itself. Deaths aren't waaaaay up, they are up by about 15% more than a typical year (and on a par with typical death rates prior to about 1960). About 10% or more of the excess deaths are due to increases in deaths of despair.
Unlike you, I am not of the absurd belief that people are meant to be immortal and that we should sacrifice the well being of younger and future generations in order to protect the interests of primarily older and obese individuals trying to hold on to a couple extra years via medical interventions (never have such unhealthy individuals been able to live so long). COVID is thinning the herd, and that isn't necessarily a bad thing given how programs like Social Security and Medicaid are being decimated by people living longer than the programs were intended and will be exhausted by the time your generation needs them.
COVID has had almost no impact on the 0-44 demographic in terms of excess deaths if one accounts for the fact that the few excess deaths in the 25-44 age group can be explained by the increase of deaths of despair (suicide, overdose, etc.) that are hitting that age group because we have intentionally put working age individuals out of work and have socially isolated the population. There are over 330 million people in this country and the population will still have increased in 2020 in spite of COVID. COVID will go away in the near future, but what won't go away any time soon is the large amount of debt incurred in the US and Europe that will hamper those nations for decades to come.