Covid has to start running out of gas soon.

I saw data from the end of October, and I believe they were using a different number than 1 in 7, which makes sense, as testing has increased over time. With that said, I would be shocked if the peak is not in January, the hope is that the vaccine will produce a relatively rapid decline, as opposed to a gradual slope over the following 4 months

Mean estimates by one (non authoritative) source:

https://monkeystyping.neocities.org/estimatedPercentInfectedByState.png

...unless immunity is short-lived.

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devil's advocate wrote:
...unless immunity is short-lived.

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The best estimate of IFR that I have seen is 0.26% and most behavior I have seen tends to follow that threshold. Using that figure would put us at about 148,000,000 cases, which is fairly close to the number you have posited, which puts us at about a 45-50% exposure rate. Now that they are starting to vaccinate the 70+ crowd (who account for about 80% of COVID deaths), we should start to see a significant decline in deaths in a month or two. There are a number of cities and counties in the US that are already pretty much at herd immunity.

Take for example NYC, that has only seen an approximate 8% increase in its deaths since November (as opposed to many cities that have seen their death total double or more over that same time interval). Pull up NYC under the jurisdiction on the CDC excess deaths website and you will visually be able to see this in play:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

For the first time in the pandemic New York actually said something that made sense in that they could no longer afford to keep the economy locked down (and quite honestly, they should have opened it completely since the summer, but they decided to ignore the science and follow the fear:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/critics-mock-gov-cuomo-for-sudden-denunciation-of-lockdowns-suggest-trump-is-using-his-twitter-account

Labor Day.

Herd or not, vaccine or not, unless this morphs to start killing everyone, the great majority of those most at risk will have died already. And, summer will slow numbers down somewhat. And, our patchwork vaccine process will have covered enough people to slow things down. Remember 5-700 daily deaths? If and when we get there again, it's game on.

Labor Day.

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Math Genius wrote:
Covid has to start running out of gas in the not-so-distant future.

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A lot of states are reaching critical mass this winter. From March-October, I personally knew 7 people who contracted Covid. In November and December alone, I know 12 additional people who have contracted it. Its basically unchecked spread at this point.

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Math Genius wrote:
Tough to find a current CDC estimate of total infections, but as of September they were guessing that 1 in 7 cases were being reported.

Use that same multiplier at current known case levels, and it brings us to 157.5 million infections. That's about half of the US population. Current high-end estimates are that 85% of the country will need to be immune for true HI to kick in, but cases numbers should begin to decline well before that.

With no evidence of widespread reinfection, and vaccinations ramping up quickly (currently about 3% has had a dose, with more widespread inoculation coming in the next few weeks), Covid has to start running out of gas in the not-so-distant future.

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cancel me this cancel me that wrote:
A lot of states are reaching critical mass this winter. From March-October, I personally knew 7 people who contracted Covid. In November and December alone, I know 12 additional people who have contracted it. Its basically unchecked spread at this point.

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I wonder if I got it. I never get tested, but have not followed any safety procedures. I wonder if I got lucky or got asymptomatic COVID a couple of times.

I can't put my hands on it, but a recent study found that the counties that were hard it during the summer or spring surges showed no sign of having any reduction in the attack rate of the virus during the fall/winter surge. So far, the virus has shown itself to be able to roll right through the population without slowing until it hits about the 70% herd immunity threshold. This is what was observed in the prison and air craft carrier outbreaks and in the massive outbreak in Manaus, Brazil.

I think we are going to see a reduction in cases due to vaccine penetration long before we see anything as a result of herd immunity threshold being reached through natural infection. The speculation about the actual rate of infection has consistently been way too high, even from conservative modelers at the CDC. Confirmed cases in the US are at 23 mil right now. I don't see the actual cases being much higher than 50 mil. There is a lot of room for the virus to run for a long time in the US, especially if a more contagious strain takes over and is able to get to people who are being very cautious who are consistently wearing masks and limiting social contacts. We really cannot get the vaccine soon enough.

That IFR number is certainly questionable, and most data suggests higher (where did you get that) but it is complicated as a populations health, behavior, and environment all play in. The number for herd immunity is also uncertain. Normally, though, in a pandemic you have a long gradual slope down from the second peak. Given that we haven’t hit the peak yet, it appears to me that we are quite a distance away from herd immunity without the vaccine.

An example of studies estimating IFR
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7524446/

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joedirtty wrote:
The best estimate of IFR that I have seen is 0.26% and most behavior I have seen tends to follow that threshold. Using that figure would put us at about 148,000,000 cases, which is fairly close to the number you have posited, which puts us at about a 45-50% exposure rate. Now that they are starting to vaccinate the 70+ crowd (who account for about 80% of COVID deaths), we should start to see a significant decline in deaths in a month or two. There are a number of cities and counties in the US that are already pretty much at herd immunity.

Take for example NYC, that has only seen an approximate 8% increase in its deaths since November (as opposed to many cities that have seen their death total double or more over that same time interval). Pull up NYC under the jurisdiction on the CDC excess deaths website and you will visually be able to see this in play:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

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There seems to be confidence in general from the medical and science community we will be close to pre-pandemic ways come this summer and fall.

I've been saying that I expect the Christmas/New Year's surge to be the last big one, we will feel it through the end of January.

Then I'd expect a very steady and solid decline, as we approach March there will be a lower level and most will feel safe. Expect April/May to be great, down to very low baseline levels with continued distancing.

Please put your hands on it, because it sounds like junk. In New York state, the increase in deaths has been about 2.5 times greater outside of the five boroughs than inside the five boroughs. NYC has seen about an 8% increase in deaths over the past two months versus places like LA County that have seen a 65% increase in deaths over the past two months in spite of similar, if not harsher restrictions. So please feel free to enlighten us.

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joedirtty wrote:
The best estimate of IFR that I have seen is 0.26% and most behavior I have seen tends to follow that threshold. Using that figure would put us at about 148,000,000 cases, which is fairly close to the number you have posited, which puts us at about a 45-50% exposure rate. Now that they are starting to vaccinate the 70+ crowd (who account for about 80% of COVID deaths), we should start to see a significant decline in deaths in a month or two. There are a number of cities and counties in the US that are already pretty much at herd immunity.

Take for example NYC, that has only seen an approximate 8% increase in its deaths since November (as opposed to many cities that have seen their death total double or more over that same time interval). Pull up NYC under the jurisdiction on the CDC excess deaths website and you will visually be able to see this in play:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

For the first time in the pandemic New York actually said something that made sense in that they could no longer afford to keep the economy locked down (and quite honestly, they should have opened it completely since the summer, but they decided to ignore the science and follow the fear:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/critics-mock-gov-cuomo-for-sudden-denunciation-of-lockdowns-suggest-trump-is-using-his-twitter-account

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