Marathon prediction based on long run

This looks like a 10M steady + 10M MP workout. My guess: 2:47-2:49.

Well under 2:50

Depending on a lot of factors like taper, nutrition, quality sleep, altitude, life stress, etc. :

I might predict a perfect scenario of these factors for you somewhere around 2:44 to 2:48

You can’t predict. My last 20 mile long run before my PR marathon was complete shizzle. I didn’t hit any of my MGP miles. Not one single mile in that last 20 miler ended up being faster than my average pace at the race 3 weeks later.

People put too much emphasis on workouts. Don’t leave your race in a workout!

That is a completely fair thought. I didn’t really approach this as a workout and am not in the middle of a marathon training block. Actually training for an ultra. This run was kind of a surprise for me. The first 14-16 miles were pretty casual, could hold a conversation without much effort, I didn’t really work till the last 2 miles. I do understand the sentiment. Last time I did train for a road race, 10k race, I did leave my race in a workout so I don’t make that mistake anymore.

Update. Did 14 miles today in about 7:10ish pace (progression down from 7:30). Was not looking at splits and just went by feel so I think there was a good bit left in the tank when I did the 20 miles.

Yeah, race day factors can be huge. If I do find a road marathon in the spring I would love to go sub 2:50 for a NY qualifier. 2:48 would be great. My half PR is 1:20:5x but I think that I am in better shape right now.

I think you could give 2:50ish a go. Maybe you'll smash it but I'd be a little more cautious without knowing your PRs and what your other workouts look like. Mileage looks good. But you also said 5 more seemed doable in the 6:30-40 range. It looks like a classic 10 easy & 10 at pace. So MP might be 6:30-6:35. Maybe start in the upper range, 6:35-6:40 and work it down from there. Definitely sub-2:55. Probably somewhere in between 2:49 & 2:53. Who knows with a good taper, some super shoes, good pacing, and good fueling, you might surprise yourself.

NERunner53 wrote:

I think you could give 2:50ish a go. Maybe you'll smash it but I'd be a little more cautious without knowing your PRs and what your other workouts look like. Mileage looks good. But you also said 5 more seemed doable in the 6:30-40 range. It looks like a classic 10 easy & 10 at pace. So MP might be 6:30-6:35. Maybe start in the upper range, 6:35-6:40 and work it down from there. Definitely sub-2:55. Probably somewhere in between 2:49 & 2:53. Who knows with a good taper, some super shoes, good pacing, and good fueling, you might surprise yourself.

Thanks. I don’t know my current shape because I am just putting in mileage but my last PR in the half was about 5 months ago and I ran a few seconds over 1:20. I’m not the fastest guy my 5k is 16:5x but that is old and I think I’m probably good for 16 mid. I seem to respond well to carbon plate shoes.

This looks a lot like the kind of long runs I did before running 2:48 (not on carbon plates). Roughly a month before that I ran 32k (20mi) w/ 23k (14mi) at around 4:00/km. (Straight out of Pfitzinger).

Nothing new here, just echoing what everyone is saying. Go out at an even 1:24:00 through 1/2 and be cautious about picking up the pace before 20-22 miles. Best case you run sub-2:47 feeling strong, not-so-good case you eek out sub-2:50.

Probably 6:30 pace, whatever that gets you, upper 2:40's?

RunningInEurope wrote:

This looks a lot like the kind of long runs I did before running 2:48 (not on carbon plates). Roughly a month before that I ran 32k (20mi) w/ 23k (14mi) at around 4:00/km. (Straight out of Pfitzinger).

Thanks for the insight. I think I could do that workout right now especially on fresher legs. I had been averaging 10 miles a day without an off day for 3 weeks leading up to that long run. That is interesting you went 2:48. Would love to go 2:45-2:48 with carbon plates.

Yeah I'm going to say under-2:50 has to be the goal. I ran 2:46 off of 1:20-mid. I also went out in the marathon not much slower than that. Was probably in 16:50ish 5k shape at the time, would have to look back. Ran 16-mid & 1:17 & 2:44, later when those were the PBs.

Time to start working towards 6:00-6:15 pace in the long runs instead of 6:30 when you're doing specific stuff. The shorter stuff says upper 2:40s to me right now, with lots of potential.

Thanks. I appreciate the advice. I know I have some good momentum and definitely feel myself getting fitter. If I start to shift more towards marathon specific training I will take your advice and work more on 6:15-6:20 pace specific work. If you were going for 2:48 would you try even splitting or more of a negative split like 1:25/1:23.

psychologically a negative split would be better. I was also going to suggest at least one workout/week averaging more like 6:10 to 6:20 so you become more efficient at this faster pace. The mileage/volume is there no question to have a great marathon but ideally you can click along easily at a 2:45 pace in a race (whenever that becomes possible) and its easier to do that if one of your longer workouts is faster.

Naperville Runner wrote:

psychologically a negative split would be better. I was also going to suggest at least one workout/week averaging more like 6:10 to 6:20 so you become more efficient at this faster pace. The mileage/volume is there no question to have a great marathon but ideally you can click along easily at a 2:45 pace in a race (whenever that becomes possible) and its easier to do that if one of your longer workouts is faster.

What is your thought on an uptempo 4-6 mile effort at closer to 5:50-6:00 minute pace? I think my 10k pace is right around 5:30-5:35 pace. I don’t love speed sessions and don’t think short intervals are necessary for marathon training.

thewinthatwas wrote:

Thanks. I appreciate the advice. I know I have some good momentum and definitely feel myself getting fitter. If I start to shift more towards marathon specific training I will take your advice and work more on 6:15-6:20 pace specific work. If you were going for 2:48 would you try even splitting or more of a negative split like 1:25/1:23.

Based on your fast finish long run, I come up with 2.50-2:51ish. Based on your half, 2:49-2:53.

For me, the best predictors have been fast finish long runs. Better than yasso 800’s or half marathon time, alone If you can crank out the last 12-14 miles of an 18 miler at your goal pace, then odds on you can nail that pace for the 26.2 race with a proper taper.

Good luck. Please update us when you’ve taken a stab at it.

Since we're playing this game, my turn:

1:29:43 Half, late October. 19:32 5K on Thanksgiving after an 8 mile run. Since then, have increased mileage from 45-50/wk to 66/wk, to peak at 70/wk next month. Last week, did a 17 mile, fast-finish long run with the last 13 miles at 7:06 pace (per Garmin 645) in worn out Vaporfly 4%'s. What can I run March 6th in almost-brand-new Next%'s?

Goal is to go sub 3:20 for a BQ (age 47) or maybe even 3:08-3:10 to be safely under their cutoff to actually race