marathon predictions

Training Advice/Discussion Marathon

3 years ago 12/26/2020 9:22am EST

just wanted some feedback. I'm planning on running my debut marathon in about a year from now. I was a top high school runner in New Mexico and a 4-time JUCO ALL-AMERICAN. My current PRs are: 1:58 (800m), 4:02 (1500m), 15:08 (5k), 25:08 (8k CC), 31:50 (10k), and 71:50 (13.1). All these PRs are high school and college times. I've been out of college running for 5 years now and I've taken some time off the last year and I have built up some decent training here and there and ran some decent road races. 2 years ago I ran a 73 half on a very hilly course off of 40 miles a week with only one hard workout a week. I'd like to run around 50-60 miles a week for a good portion of 21' and have a couple peak weeks around 70-80 miles a week in my build up for my debut marathon. I've struggled with stress fractures and other injuries so I want to see what I can do on fairly low mileage. So my question is what do you think I can run? also what is some key workouts you think would help under these confines of training?

3 years ago 12/26/2020 9:51am EST

re: hollisrunner

In terms of long term potential, something as fast as 2:20 might be possible. For your first race a 2:40 is an appropriate goal provided you have the right buildup. Since you want to limit total mileage you will need to be very smart about key workouts and intensity. I ran 2:33 off of 50 miles/week back when shoes were little more than hard rubber and hydration/nutrition was not well understood. I would do 3 hard workouts in a week (1) long run of 13 to 20 miles at 7:30 or even 8:00 pace (2) hard 8 to 12 mile run at close to 6:00 pace (3) 4 x mile in 4:50 to 5:00 pace with warmup/down. Due to poor race pacing I think I underperformed in the marathon and should have run more like 2:28

3 years ago 12/26/2020 10:45am EST

re: Naperville Runner

Take a look at the Hanson's plan. Not the one that they use for their pros, but the one they use for their age-groupers and folks like you who want or need to run limited mileage. They do a fair amount of quality (a day of marathon pace work and a day of either tempo or VO2 max stuff every week) to generate cumulative fatigue, but the long run tops out at 16 miles.

I'll be more aggressive than the previous poster and say that you could target sub-2:35 if training goes well and still have some meat left on the bone for future attempts.

3 years ago 12/26/2020 12:44pm EST

re: hollisrunner

Do pick a good course and one that has good weather that will increase your chances for a faster time.

3 years ago 12/27/2020 6:14am EST

re: hollisrunner

Those short distance PRs leave a lot to be desired at the 10k/half. I understand the allure of the marathon but you definitely have 2:20-low/mid potential. That's a little tougher without improving at the half. I would spend the first half of the year on the 10k/half. Shoot for new PRs there and then build for a fall marathon. I also understand the frustration with injuries but it's hard to tap out and/or run well at the longer stuff without good mileage. Might be worth it to take a look at your mechanics and try to come up with a strength training routine to keep you healthy. If you can't double, maybe add in some swimming/biking to up your overall volume.

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