joed1rtty wrote:
The only explanation is herd immunity, as environmental conditions still favor transmission. This is in-line with what one would expect with the theoretical IFR of 0.26% put out by the CDC back in March. The shutdowns haven't achieved much other than to slow the process over eleven months rather than the 3 months experienced in a place like NYC.
Or behavioral changes. Shockingly, some people take COVID seriously and when you have test postivity in the teens they alter their behavior.
Also why are you so insistent on the 0.26% IFR? This has repeatedly been debunked on these forums -- the CDC based it on a single flawed study and ever longitudinal review has found results closer to 0.6%. There are many states with > 1800 deaths/million. Taking 0.26% IFR means they are >75% infected. No studies have come CLOSE to this number in the US. It doesn't pass the first mathematical sanity check.