With the COVID-19 vaccine(s) now being distributed, it will be interesting to see what the 2021 race scene will look like. This is what I envision 2021 looking like in terms of races, and maybe this is optimistic
-road races: probably for the first half of 2021, you won't see any large scale mass event road races. Probably will see a lot of the wave start races we've been used to in 2020, or for people outside the Northeast, races of 500-1000 people. I'd expect races of 500+ to return nationwide by June, maybe May at the soonest, with the average size gradually growing as 2021 goes on. Fall will probably be when races will be totally normal again, and we will see all of the usual big city races such as Chicago, NYC, etc.
-track: College outdoor track and field will very likely happen (as will high school outdoor in all states). As 2020 has shown, track events can be hosted and not be super spreader events. you can control field sizes, crowds, etc and it's outside. HOWEVER, you won't see large scale invites outdoors (like Penn, Mt. Sac, Bucknell, etc). You probably will see lots of dual/tri meets. you might even see small scale elite mini meets to draw together fast competition to chase times. D1 might have to adjust how they have regionals/championships. As for unattached athletes, this could leave a desert. probably citing safety/vaccine concerns, unattached athletes will have fewer opportunities to compete at college meets. I feel like this will lead to a rise in small scale meets like what happened during the fall, such as the trials of miles meets held in the NYC area, among many others in addition to many open track meet series that already exist.
Does this all seem realistic? discus