Marathon Project predictions

+1 on Preisner , then Justin Kent and Rory Linkletter

Hall in second in 2:23:08

I'm running the race, and the way training has been going and running workouts on flat loops like the course I think I can run in the 2:12 range, and there are lots of guys that should dust me. I'll bet a lot of money people are running under 2:10, I won't be surprised if we have someone run a high 2:08.

I think there will be 4 sub 2:10's, and another 10 that run under the 2:11:30 olympic standard. Maybe I'll be way back in 19th place with a 2:12:24

We once again have a race that a ton of the faster Americans are all peaking for, since all of the other races are canceled because of covid, so the depth will make the top end even better from pushing them.

The weather is looking absolutely perfect, between 40-45 for most of the race and winds starting at 4mph, with sunshine and well-paved road. It's going to be a fast day.

No male runner goes under 2:09

Oh Canada. You're so cute.

Cam MF Levins, FTW in a new Canadian Record - 2:08 and change. He'll be back, baby!

Sarah Inglis won't win, but look for a breakthrough performance.

I have listened to a couple of podcast interviews with Albertson.

One of them (from about a year ago), suggests that his training is based loosely on his understanding of Canova -- hard long runs close to Marathon pace/effort seemed to be his main workouts. (He noted a lot of his early marathons were run on a whim because he thought he could pick up prize money.)

I think his recent 50K and treadmill marathon seem to go along with this.

Guy back in the pack wrote:

I'm running the race, and the way training has been going and running workouts on flat loops like the course I think I can run in the 2:12 range, and there are lots of guys that should dust me. I'll bet a lot of money people are running under 2:10, I won't be surprised if we have someone run a high 2:08.

I think there will be 4 sub 2:10's, and another 10 that run under the 2:11:30 olympic standard. Maybe I'll be way back in 19th place with a 2:12:24

As an armchair quarterback here, what will determine a lot of this is pacing from the start. Everyone wants to run 2:09 in these major marathons, but then the lead pack goes out at 2:14 pace for the first ten miles, looking around at each other waiting to see who will make the first move. IIRC, the Atlanta trials were that way.

I know there will be pacers, but if they go out at 2:09.30 (or whatever is prescribed), will anyone veer around them and aim for 2:08 pace the entire way? For example.

Could Sunday be the day Shadrack Biwott breaks goes under 2:12 for the first time? Dude is a major competitor at the Major's and has been super consistent for many years. Maybe we see a breakout day for him come Sunday?

Cam Levins also appears to be pretty fit and would have to be my pick of the bunch.

The women's side looks super interesting as well. If Hall doesn't crash and burn, she's my pick. Otherwise, Kellyn Taylor seems to be a good bet as well.

Hansons have been quiet about 2:11:38 Brendan Gregg and Shadrack Biwott who has finished 3 times in the top 5 at WMM.

That tells me they are not ready.

Cam Levins did a pretty wild workout at altitude (6 x 5k @ MP? with 1k jog) in the buildup:

https://www.strava.com/activities/4421678208/overview

Not really sure what to take form that, tbh.

Agreed. Quite the fade over the course of that workout. I was ready to pick Cam for a good one, but this makes me second guess that. He’s hit or miss as it is so now I really don’t know what to think.

Biwott, while some good placings always disappoints time-wise. Look for another 2:12 or a DNF.

Cam flamed out at London. Disappointed in his soph marathon after big hype. Another DNF once he realizes the time given no prize money.

I’m confused if People really believe these shoes give a runner 4-5 minutes? Why aren’t these American men all running faster than Ryan Hall did? Shouldn’t we have 20 guys under 2:10 or 30?

Shouldn’t we be talking about guys easily running 2:05? 2:06? 2:07?

Ryan Hall and Alberto, Shorter, Etc....would have been running 2:02? 2:03? 2:04?

Jonathan Gault talked to many of the leading coaches and athletes. Here is our men's preview. SC membership required for early access. We'll open it up to everyone else on Friday.

https://www.letsrun.com/vip/2020/12/mens-marathon-project-preview-with-a-fast-course-perfect-conditions-sunday-could-be-a-historic-day-for-us-marathoning/

Canadian1 wrote:

Darkhorse Ben Preisner of Canada takes the win

I concur. ?

See, I want Sara Hall to break the record, but realistically her chances are pretty slim. She has to be fitter than ever, completely recovered, and have nothing go even slightly wrong on race day. I don’t think she gets it, but I think she’ll PR by a solid margin. I’ll say 2:20:30

An interesting note- Ben bruce posted on his Instagram the other day, and made it seem like Kellyn Taylor is not in the 2:24 group, mentioning only Bates and Steph Bruce. I wonder if she’ll go after Hall. That’s definitely a high risk, but it’s an even higher reward if she can keep up.

On the men’s side, I have to go with Albertson. Despite his 50k and 2:09 on the treadmill, the man can recover like no one else in the game. He’s consistently improved through the past few years, and he’s ready for an even bigger breakthrough than he had at the trials. I predict 2:08:40

Until recently I would have said levins, but that 5k reps session looked terrible. Hopefully it was just a dud and he’ll be ready to go on race day.

I’d say 2:09 mid for Fauble and 2:10:30 for Ward.

If the conditions are ideal and with excellent pacing I predict the following...

Women:

-Hall; 2:20:30

-Taylor; 2:23:10

-D'Amato; 2:23:15

-Bates; 2:23:20

-Bruce; 2:24:00

A plethora of women run under 2:28

Men:

-Hehir; 2:08:50

-Fauble; 2:09:05

-Mayo; 2:09:10

-Bennie; 2:09:15

-Albertson: 2:09:25

Ward, Buchanon & Levins both run in the 2:10's.

Linkletter, Mesfun, S. Smith and the majority of the field 2:11's

Dude!!!! If you're shooting for 2:12 why not just run 2:11:29 and get the Oly standard?

Good Luck and don't be afraid to RUN FAST!!!!

"Go Run One"