Speed Ratings are Dumb wrote:
And Wolfe? The deepest and fastest race of all time was this year but the Speed Rating guru sees so many fast times and rates them all down. Top girl and a bot back up times by dropping more than 20 seconds on the track. The will be more 8:45s in 2021 than any other year.
The quality of the Boys race at RunningLane was nicely improved due to the participation of teams and runners from Utah and Colorado ... But not "deep" to a level close to NXN, although I believe the top Boys teams at RunningLane could have been serious podium contenders had NXN occurred ... Newbury Park would be the favorite to repeat at the Glendoveer course in Portland as would the Saratoga Girls.
Put simply - Even with quality fast runners, the race times at RunningLane were fast because the course is fast in comparison to other 5K cross country courses.
Using Athletic Net and its PR (Personal Record) / SR (Seasonal Record) filter ... Of the top 80 Boys finishers at RunningLane, 80 are listed of having set their PR at RunningLane ... I find that extraordinary ... Nearly all scorers on the top teams set high school career PRs ... How often does that happen in the same race, especially at a National level event??
Boys with PRs at RunningLane (Gold Race):
Top 80 finishers: 80
All finishers: 222 of 288
Girls with PRs at RunningLane (Gold Race):
Top 80 finishers: 71
Top 100 finishers: 89
Top 150 finishers: 133
All finishers: 222 of 269
These numbers are remarkable ... The John Hunt Running Park course in Alabama is fast ... Absolute fast times do not always translate into high speed ratings, and never have ... RunningLane is the perfect example.
I took crap at the the beginning of the season when I rated Jenna Hutchins in the 160s (because she couldn't possibly compare to Sydney Thorvaldson or Brynn Brown) ... The complaints increased when I rated a Hutchins' race at 171 (and that was actually my lower limit for that race because it was done in post-hurricane conditions favorable to a front-runner like Hutchins).
Recent emails from Hutchins fans, Thorvaldson fans and even one particularly NY runner fans all agree to my senility in under-rating their runner.
I suggest that XC rankings now be done strictly by absolute race times (as is Track) ... I further suggest that California's Woodbridge Invitational be extended from 3 miles to 5K because that race will be faster than the RunningLane course race.