Ranking the top twenty Marathoners, male and female

should be studying 102 wrote:

yes. continue. Where is galen rupp? He ran 209 on a TOUGH atlanta course in bad conditions. Dont pretend that Galen Rupp is only a 209 marathoner this year. I WISH WISH WISH that he ran the marathon project, but maybe its not fast enough for him.

Placing Galen at 27 doesn't, of course, mean that he would finish that low at next year's Olympics because of the 26 named before him, 13 are Ethiopian and 11 are Kenyan. With only 7 from those two countries possibly able to compete, that puts Rupp at the edge of the top ten in Japan next year.

Aussiestatman wrote:

26th female is Valary Jemeli: poor tenth in London in 2.28.18 after winning Frankfurt last year in 2.19.10. Had three other results under 2.23.02 in either 2018 or 2019.

27. Gutemi Shone, second in Dubai in 2.20.11 after winning Seville in Feb 2019 in 2.24.28. Sidenote: If Kellyn Taylor wins this morning at the project in 2.20.44 like I have called it, she would rocket into this top 30 in one of the next three places.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

26th female is Valary Jemeli: poor tenth in London in 2.28.18 after winning Frankfurt last year in 2.19.10. Had three other results under 2.23.02 in either 2018 or 2019.

27. Gutemi Shone, second in Dubai in 2.20.11 after winning Seville in Feb 2019 in 2.24.28. Sidenote: If Kellyn Taylor wins this morning at the project in 2.20.44 like I have called it, she would rocket into this top 30 in one of the next three places.

No to Kellyn

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Kosgei the WR holder still at one

2. Peres. I had ranked in the forties before this.

3. Ruth C. Even with the fading third in London.

4. Worknesh Degefa. Been quiet.

5. Joyciline Jepkosgei: big improvement in time

7. Ashete Bekere: fourth in London [2.22.51] after winning Berlin Sept last year in 2.20.14

8. Roza Dereje: winner Valencia last year in 2.18.30. Only a half early this year.

9. Sara Hall: Wasn't ranked in my 50 before London with only one finish sub 2.26 in five years of running marathons. Has another chance in 9 days to cement this spot.

10. Birhane Dibaba, one of the few to get two runs at the classic distance this year. Second in Tokyo, 9th in Valencia.

Moving Sara up two places to 7tb.

Aussiestatman wrote:

should be studying 102 wrote:

yes. continue. Where is galen rupp? He ran 209 on a TOUGH atlanta course in bad conditions. Dont pretend that Galen Rupp is only a 209 marathoner this year. I WISH WISH WISH that he ran the marathon project, but maybe its not fast enough for him.

Placing Galen at 27 doesn't, of course, mean that he would finish that low at next year's Olympics because of the 26 named before him, 13 are Ethiopian and 11 are Kenyan. With only 7 from those two countries possibly able to compete, that puts Rupp at the edge of the top ten in Japan next year.

28. Soloman Deksisa was second in Amsterdam in 2.05.16 last year after third there the year before in 2.04.40. Had had three unsuccessful attempts at majors, the last two were a 12th in Tokyo in 2017 and a DNF in Boston last year.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

26th female is Valary Jemeli: poor tenth in London in 2.28.18 after winning Frankfurt last year in 2.19.10. Had three other results under 2.23.02 in either 2018 or 2019.

27. Gutemi Shone, second in Dubai in 2.20.11 after winning Seville in Feb 2019 in 2.24.28. Sidenote: If Kellyn Taylor wins this morning at the project in 2.20.44 like I have called it, she would rocket into this top 30 in one of the next three places.

Next is Selly Chepyego: fourth in Tokyo in 2.21.42 after third in Berlin last year in 2.21.06. Should run the half at RAK in Feb, last one was Barcelona last year: third in 68.30.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Up to 25 and still no Rupp. Soon now: just before Osako, who claimed the Japanese NR this year.

29. Suguru Osako, fourth in Tokyo to book the last spot in his home Olympics in NR of 2.05.29.

should be studying 102 wrote:

yes. continue. Where is galen rupp? He ran 209 on a TOUGH atlanta course in bad conditions. Dont pretend that Galen Rupp is only a 209 marathoner this year. I WISH WISH WISH that he ran the marathon project, but maybe its not fast enough for him.

29. Edna Kiplagat, now 40yo. Still competitive with second in Boston and fourth in the oppressive humidity at Worlds. Fourth in Berlin in 2018 in 2.21.18. Won Boston and second at Worlds in 2017. Had a golden run from 2011-14 with a win in London and successive World Champs.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Up to 25 and still no Rupp. Soon now: just before Osako, who claimed the Japanese NR this year.

29. Suguru Osako, fourth in Tokyo to book the last spot in his home Olympics in NR of 2.05.29.

30 is Kenneth Kipkemoi, not seen since Boston last year when third in 2.08.07. Won Rotterdam in 2018 in his PB of 2.05.44 and followed it up with fourth in Chicago 13 sec slower.

should be studying 102 wrote:

yes. continue. Where is galen rupp? He ran 209 on a TOUGH atlanta course in bad conditions. Dont pretend that Galen Rupp is only a 209 marathoner this year. I WISH WISH WISH that he ran the marathon project, but maybe its not fast enough for him.

Almost done: 30 men and 29 women. Should I go to 40? It gets more difficult.

Aussiestatman wrote:

should be studying 102 wrote:

yes. continue. Where is galen rupp? He ran 209 on a TOUGH atlanta course in bad conditions. Dont pretend that Galen Rupp is only a 209 marathoner this year. I WISH WISH WISH that he ran the marathon project, but maybe its not fast enough for him.

Almost done: 30 men and 29 women. Should I go to 40? It gets more difficult.

Last woman in the 30 is Azmera Gebru. Details soon. Just ahead of Purity Rionoripo, whose husband is a top 60 marathoner as well.

I have this ranking thing down pat now after 15 months. You can rely on my opinions being more reliable than the official rankings and most other experts.

Aussiestatman wrote:

I have this ranking thing down pat now after 15 months. You can rely on my opinions being more reliable than the official rankings and most other experts.

The next task is to consider where they all plan to run this classic distance this year. The athletes selected for their countries have the Olympics then ALL the majors are in the fall.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

I have this ranking thing down pat now after 15 months. You can rely on my opinions being more reliable than the official rankings and most other experts.

The next task is to consider where they all plan to run this classic distance this year. The athletes selected for their countries have the Olympics then ALL the majors are in the fall.

And for me, the most intriguing selections will be the Ethiopian women. The three selected for Worlds in 2019 from a country with so much depth at this highest level were spectacularly ineffective.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

The next task is to consider where they all plan to run this classic distance this year. The athletes selected for their countries have the Olympics then ALL the majors are in the fall.

And for me, the most intriguing selections will be the Ethiopian women. The three selected for Worlds in 2019 from a country with so much depth at this highest level were spectacularly ineffective.

I wrote a short article in November just before Valencia highlighting the recent history and current form and sent it to the Brojos for the front page but they showed minimal interest.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

And for me, the most intriguing selections will be the Ethiopian women. The three selected for Worlds in 2019 from a country with so much depth at this highest level were spectacularly ineffective.

I wrote a short article in November just before Valencia highlighting the recent history and current form and sent it to the Brojos for the front page but they showed minimal interest.

About Ethiopia selecting their women to represent in the marathon at the Olympics. Started with the 2019 Worlds and assessed the results since, mostly at Majors.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Almost done: 30 men and 29 women. Should I go to 40? It gets more difficult.

Last woman in the 30 is Azmera Gebru. Details soon. Just ahead of Purity Rionoripo, whose husband is a top 60 marathoner as well.

I still to fill in the details for Gebru.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

7. Ashete Bekere: fourth in London [2.22.51] after winning Berlin Sept last year in 2.20.14

8. Roza Dereje: winner Valencia last year in 2.18.30. Only a half early this year.

9. Sara Hall: Wasn't ranked in my 50 before London with only one finish sub 2.26 in five years of running marathons. Has another chance in 9 days to cement this spot.

10. Birhane Dibaba, one of the few to get two runs at the classic distance this year. Second in Tokyo, 9th in Valencia.

Moving Sara up two places to 7tb.

With Tirunesh making her long-awaited comeback in Hamburg this April, what time gets her back into this equation and onto the Ethiopian Olympic Marathon team?

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

The next task is to consider where they all plan to run this classic distance this year. The athletes selected for their countries have the Olympics then ALL the majors are in the fall.

And for me, the most intriguing selections will be the Ethiopian women. The three selected for Worlds in 2019 from a country with so much depth at this highest level were spectacularly ineffective.

Worknesh Degefa must be one and Tirunesh if she does well in April.