The world record has been in the low 58s for over a decade. That was possibly the most surprisingly stagnant record in the books. It barely improved over 10 years despite huge talent and better shoes. Regardless of those shoes, it should be easily sub-58 by now based on previous rate of progression. I wouldn't even be surprised to see some of today's 57:xx guys go 56:5x at some point with vaporflys and adios pros.
I think the question is; can we go sub 57 minutes?
We will, in the next decade.
NativeSon wrote:
I think the question is; can we go sub 57 minutes?
We will, in the next decade.
Yes. Some of these guys can maybe even do it.
Agreed, it's been a long time coming.
i am going to sleep, someone wake me up when Nike starts the "Breaking 55 project"?
Collin wrote:
The world record has been in the low 58s for over a decade. That was possibly the most surprisingly stagnant record in the books. It barely improved over 10 years despite huge talent and better shoes. Regardless of those shoes, it should be easily sub-58 by now based on previous rate of progression. I wouldn't even be surprised to see some of today's 57:xx guys go 56:5x at some point with vaporflys and adios pros.
IF someone runs under 57 that person will be able to run under 26 minutes for 10000m.
Who’s surprised? Who are you speaking of?
ksnsjddn wrote:
Who’s surprised? Who are you speaking of?
Well, for two people, Jonathan Gault, and Robert Johnson. Their coverage is making it sound like this is completely unexpected without the shoes. It's not only expected regardless, but it's overdue. If the shoes are a "bigger effect than a Boston 2012 tailwind" as they've claimed, we'd be seeing times way way faster than this even with absolutely no progression since 2010.
I'm surprised too. Add me to the list with Rojo and Gault then. You said it yourself: " It barely improved over 10 years despite huge talent and better shoes.." So the fact that all of a sudden (all in the same race) for 4 guys break it all at once? and it gets shattered by 30+ seconds?! Hmmm...what makes the year 2020 maybe a little different from the past couple of years? What exactly can make people improve all of a sudden by large margins? The thought that is was "stagnant" has nothing to do with why it *should* be broken...but it is more a testament to that the half record was really freaking good already. The fact that it was broken by such a big margin is one surprise. The fact that 4 guys in the same race broke it was another surprise.
Collin wrote:
The world record has been in the low 58s for over a decade. That was possibly the most surprisingly stagnant record in the books. It barely improved over 10 years despite huge talent and better shoes. Regardless of those shoes, it should be easily sub-58 by now based on previous rate of progression. I wouldn't even be surprised to see some of today's 57:xx guys go 56:5x at some point with vaporflys and adios pros.
Collin wrote:
The world record has been in the low 58s for over a decade. That was possibly the most surprisingly stagnant record in the books. It barely improved over 10 years despite huge talent and better shoes. Regardless of those shoes, it should be easily sub-58 by now based on previous rate of progression. I wouldn't even be surprised to see some of today's 57:xx guys go 56:5x at some point with vaporflys and adios pros.
The half-marathon is not an event that is often run for time, compared to events like the 1500m, 5000m, 10000m and the marathon. This serves to prolong records that are comparatively weak.
A lot of marathon runners use the half-marathon as a tune-up race some weeks before the marathon.
rekrunner wrote:
Collin wrote:
The world record has been in the low 58s for over a decade. That was possibly the most surprisingly stagnant record in the books. It barely improved over 10 years despite huge talent and better shoes. Regardless of those shoes, it should be easily sub-58 by now based on previous rate of progression. I wouldn't even be surprised to see some of today's 57:xx guys go 56:5x at some point with vaporflys and adios pros.
The half-marathon is not an event that is often run for time, compared to events like the 1500m, 5000m, 10000m and the marathon. This serves to prolong records that are comparatively weak.
A lot of marathon runners use the half-marathon as a tune-up race some weeks before the marathon.
So how many world class 10,000s are there each year and how many world class half marathons?
I thought Canova's posting on a thread regarding Moh Ahmed breaking the Canadian NR was interesting.
He argued with all the "unlimited doping no testing" noise and put it down to periodisation, conditions and the absence of a traditional racing season. Ie most people (including hobby joggers) have been training towards a singular goal and pick a day where conditions are optimal rather than have to follow the racing calendar. This Valencia race was the "saviour" race of 2020 to make up for the major cancellations. Cheptegei was planning to peak in the spring to break the records but they changed his plan and he was still able to break the 5k + 10k w relative ease.
Canova's reasoning echoes Marty Liquori's summary of the 'one big race' argument: "(...) from a psychological as well as a physical standpoint, the body and mind cannot continue to operate on a high plane over the course of several years and still be expected to mobilise for that one supreme effort." Albeit on a smaller scale.
I've seen loads of hobby joggers break PR's in solo time trials, I wonder if it's not the same for some of the athletes you coach?
here's a link to the thread:
https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=10105336
Worth mentioning that the previous WR set by Kamworor was a part of his build for the NY Marathon whereas these guys were obviously targeting the WR...
S. Canaday wrote:
Hmmm...what makes the year 2020 maybe a little different from the past couple of years? What exactly can make people improve all of a sudden by large margins?
Are you accusing these runners of doping, Sage?
Did you watch Kamworor's 58:01? He could have run in the 57s then had he not been on his own for so long.
How about his race in Cardiff, where he ran 59:10 in a storm?
The OP is right. The wr should have been sub 58 a long time ago.
Mutiso may have been a slight surprise but the top 3 are absolute studs and with the new shoes and an aggressive start to the race I am not surprised at all by the results.
NativeSon wrote:
I think the question is; can we go sub 57 minutes?
We will, in the next decade.
IAAF scoring points:
5000 in 12:35: 1303
10000 in 26:11: 1304
HM in 57:32: 1298 <--- still the weakest record
M in 2:01:39: 1315
sub-57?
Not an absurd thought, actually:
5000 in 12:30: 1322
10000 in 26:01: 1323
HM in 56:59: 1322
M in 2:01:18: 1322
Everything Canova says has to be taken with a grain of salt, as he's had athletes pop for doping. So, it would only aid his reputation if he convinced a bunch of idiots that doping doesn't actually improve performance as some, if not all, of his athlete's are doping cheats.
The fact that we as a sport fan base are split in half about whether there is whole sale doping at the top level is idiotic. It should be like cycling at this point; we know it's absolutely happening with probably all of the athlete's but it doesn't change the fact that what they are doing is bad@ss as hell.
Hey Sage, the HM Record is finally in line with the Mount Washington Road Race Record!!
We always said Mount Washington reflects Half Marathon times for most.. well, not some types obviously (i.e., you and 60-min!!). :)
Something has to be said about limited racing opportunities. It is resulting in having a ton of fast people showing up for the same race, all peaked for that race. Typically there are a ton of half marathon options, and full marathon options. Typically there is more money available in the full marathons. Those have mostly all been canceled, so more top guys in the world are looking for some other race to focus on that isn't a marathon. There are few half marathon racing opportunities, so they all chose to run in Valencia. A course that has produced low 58's already without the depth that the race saw this year, and without so many people focusing months on this one race.
Look at the 10k in the U.S. on Saturday. Crazy depth, the most American sub 28's ever in one race. Roughly 10% of all Americans to run sub 28 did it in one night. And they weren't wearing 4% shoes, and they also weren't wearing dragonfly spikes. When everyone focuses for the same race and tons of people show up for it, you'll have extra fast times.
Hobbling wrote:
So how many world class 10,000s are there each year and how many world class half marathons?
Better to ask how many world record attempts for each event over the history of the event.
Lots of good points in this thread, but yea, I'm still surprised by a 57:30. I'm more surprised by 4 people in 57:xx...
Wanjiru set the 58:33 in 2007, then Zersenay at 58:22 in 2010...then nothing for 9 years. It seemed as if the 58:22 was in fact underrated.
In that time since Zersenday set 58:22, the marathon world record was set 4 times to go from Haile's 2:03:59 down to 2:01:39, yet the half marathon stayed firm, even with a hotly contested WC every year (or is it every other?) and lots of big named races.
The "shoes" started to be a thing in like 2016, and while we've seen a lot of guys go fast, only one set a WR in them (2:01:39).
The one fellow that came out of nowhere and ran 58:12(?) was suspiscious, and rightly so. Then Kamworwor ran 58:01 and that seemed otherworldly, and he is a half champ and 2x XC so it was believable.
So yea, someone taking 30s out of Kam's record is pretty unbelievable, even if the scoring tables show it is in fact more in line now.