“... this coach will be inheriting a culture that is presumably bad, with kids that are going to be there for up to four years still. It's very difficult to bring in a new culture when a toxic old culture exists...”
There are certain directors out there who are damaged program cleaner-uppers, or morale fixers, coaches who thrive on turning things around for the better. I would argue these are the same coaches who develop potential in athletes (and humans), and don’t just grab potential point scorers based on their high marks alone. Do blue chip high school recruits improve? Check those stats over 4-5 years of college competition and you will see what a coach is made of. Yes, there are issues with transitioning from home to college life, but like it or not, it is PART of a college coach’s job, shepherding humans into adulthood. Amazing coaches who don’t like the shepherding aspect of the job can go pro. ADs do well to hire coaches who don’t generate negative press and do graduate happy alumni.