1k Time Trial Prediction Thread

6x800 workout is really good. Strong tempo. No idea what to make of the 500s. 200s a little weaker.

2:30.

I know guys that have ran 2:32 and could not have closed that workout in 2:08.

2:29 - 2:38

I'd guess low 2:30s

ModerateTime wrote:

I was a 2:24 1,000m runner and had 48 400m speed and 4:01 Mile. My endurance was sub 14:20 and sub 29:10 5,000 and 10,000. Based on your speed 2:44-2:48 is my prediction.

He closed a 6x800m workout (<2 min active recovery) in 2:08. So no reasonably intelligent person would guess anything slower than 2:08 pace, which is a 2:40.

Also, this guy clearly has 52 400m speed or faster based on the 200m reps. So based on your 48/2:24, we'd put this guy at 2:34 extrapolating. So your times do not support your guess.

Last year aged 59, ran 4x500 on the road ave 95.41 . 10 days later ran 1k indoors in 3:11.44 . So based on your 500 session you should be on target for 2:32 at least with an average of 76 dropping a couple of seconds from that 79.

This is hard to say. I only raced 1K twice with a best of 2:30 early season when I was maybe in 1:56 shape. I raced 800 very frequently with a best of 1:53, and I had awful endurance (I might not have been able to break 16 for 5K then).

All of the workouts posted by OP would have been hard but doable for me when I was in 1:53 shape. The 15:50 3M tempo would have been a race effort for me, and I never ran as fast as 2:08 at the end of 6x800 (but also never gunned it). The 200's don't seem slow to me, I recall doing 6x200 with 200 walk rest never averaging faster than 26 mid.

But a solo time trial is really hard. So I think OP would do ~1:55 800 which milesplit calculator says is worth a 2:31.8 1000m (I would have guessed faster than that).

Running a TT by yourself? 2:41.x

Running a TT with someone in about the same shape as you? 2:36-8.

Don't @ me. Just getting my prediction in before OP returns with results.

I would predict 2:31.42. Based on your workouts and what I think I could have run when I’d consider my fitness was equal to your workout times. If I had to guess which way I’m wrong, I’d say I bet you run faster than my guess.

ModerateTime wrote:

I was a 2:24 1,000m runner and had 48 400m speed and 4:01 Mile. My endurance was sub 14:20 and sub 29:10 5,000 and 10,000. Based on your speed 2:44-2:48 is my prediction.

Imagine telling someone they’re gonna run this slow. 2:24 isn’t that fast. I’ve run 2:22 off going out in 1:57. The 26s that this person has run plus all the strength shows they can at least run 2:26. Literally anything above 2:28 is so slow. Think of how many mediocre high school runners run under 2:30 in high school.

So you went a predictor for your time trail which in itself is a predictor!

Your 800m pr would be the most accurate predictor if you were in that shape

ukathleticscoach wrote:

So you went a predictor for your time trail which in itself is a predictor!

Your 800m pr would be the most accurate predictor if you were in that shape

For a coach, that is a rather circular argument.

What's your guess?

76chine wrote:

ukathleticscoach wrote:

So you went a predictor for your time trail which in itself is a predictor!

Your 800m pr would be the most accurate predictor if you were in that shape

For a coach, that is a rather circular argument.

What's your guess?

Well I would need to know what the persons 800m best is. Running is not some mathematical problem where you have to find x you need more all the info

Its hard to say because the 500's are a lot more impressive than the 800's. The last 800m being so much faster shows the op was not really trying that hard but hat time could he have run all of them in - who knows

2:38 at a guess

Very few high schoolers break 2:30. Very few run it and only the very best of those break 2:30. 16 guys broke it last year so I don't know how think some mediocre guys do it.

My prediction for solo is 2:37.2 and if paced or pushed. 2:33.6.

OK as promised here are results:

2:36.1

The winner was Coffee Monster @ 2:36.01, although most of you were pretty close. Competition losers: bidensmypresident @ 2:26 and ModerateTime @ 2:46 (2:44-2:48). If you gave a range I just treated it like you guessed the average of your two bounds.

Not as fast as I wanted, but it's ok because I have plenty of sandbags saved up. Weather was 22 F (holy cow my lungs hurt after) and I was all alone (training partner couldn't make it), so if you made your prediction with an expectation of better conditions, you can see how close you think you would have been if you knew the conditions ahead of time. That's not to mention this was a rust buster.

If you're interested:

The goal for me is to keep doing base while occasionally touching the speed for two or three more months and eventually try to put together a mile at about the same pace I ran for this TT (hopefully in a real race), so I guess the goal for the 2021 spring is 4:11. I've only been training for about 8 weeks total since hurting my footing in the summer, so hopefully there's room to keep it going.

poor_periodizer wrote:

OK as promised here are results:

2:36.1

Not as fast as I wanted, but it's ok because I have plenty of sandbags saved up. Weather was 22 F (holy cow my lungs hurt after) and I was all alone (training partner couldn't make it), so if you made your prediction with an expectation of better conditions, you can see how close you think you would have been if you knew the conditions ahead of time. That's not to mention this was a rust buster.

In 22 F weather? With training partner and decent weather is 2:31-2:33.

What were your splits that you checked? Maybe you checked the 400m and 800m, I'm guessing.

Hope you post again about your progress.

76chine wrote:

poor_periodizer wrote:

OK as promised here are results:

2:36.1

Not as fast as I wanted, but it's ok because I have plenty of sandbags saved up. Weather was 22 F (holy cow my lungs hurt after) and I was all alone (training partner couldn't make it), so if you made your prediction with an expectation of better conditions, you can see how close you think you would have been if you knew the conditions ahead of time. That's not to mention this was a rust buster.

In 22 F weather? With training partner and decent weather is 2:31-2:33.

What were your splits that you checked? Maybe you checked the 400m and 800m, I'm guessing.

Hope you post again about your progress.

I wasn't able to check any splits because I always think it slows me down to look. If I hit a good time in the future maybe I'll update this thread.

bidensmypresident wrote:

ModerateTime wrote:

I was a 2:24 1,000m runner and had 48 400m speed and 4:01 Mile. My endurance was sub 14:20 and sub 29:10 5,000 and 10,000. Based on your speed 2:44-2:48 is my prediction.

Imagine telling someone they’re gonna run this slow. 2:24 isn’t that fast. I’ve run 2:22 off going out in 1:57. The 26s that this person has run plus all the strength shows they can at least run 2:26. Literally anything above 2:28 is so slow. Think of how many mediocre high school runners run under 2:30 in high school.

Can't tell if trolling or not. An average year usually sees 15-20 high school runners go under 2:30. I would not call anybody who's top 20 in their class "mediocre". Also, not sure if you want people to be impressed by 2:22? I raced 1k a few times in college, always early in the season, ran 2:21, but when I was in talks with shoe companies I don't think they mentioned it a single time. The only things they cared about were my 1:46 and All Americans. Nobody cares about a 2:22. Stop calling talented kids slow because you ran marginally faster in an event that nobody cares about.