Ok.
It makes better sense in perspective without Spring Break attached.
Got it. Thanks.
Ok.
It makes better sense in perspective without Spring Break attached.
Got it. Thanks.
If you were to vaccinate only those 65+ and go back to normal, then you'd have a raging epidemic with hundreds of thousands dying under the age of 65. From February 1 to November 21, according to the CDC, there were 47,000 deaths involving COVID-19 (U07.1) as underlying cause among ages 25-64. 29,888 of those were just among those 55-64.
Moreover, the deaths due to COVID-19 appear to be far larger than these totals, because pneumonia deaths are way up (while flu deaths have been only 6829 during this time frame) with no other clear explanation. COVID-19 often results in "pneumonia," that is, fluid buildup in the lungs. There have been 109,504 deaths involving pneumonia and COVID-19. So, you'd have a bloodbath if you re-opened society with only senior citizens vaccinated. Moreover, COVID-19 would either take years to reach herd immunity and in the meantime that might give it time to mutate enough to obviate any herd immunity (like flu) or even become more serious for younger people. After all, it was a very early mutation, scientists recently discovered, that likely made COVID-19 much more contagious, arriving in high proportions first in Italy, and soon becoming involved in 99% of all COVID cases around the world.
The conclusion is that you'd better vaccinate everyone, but especially people 25 and up, and 45 and up would be the absolute minimum.
more to it wrote:
Yes it's about protecting the at-risk population, but it's also about keeping our health care system from becoming overloaded. All the selfish people out there can't comprehend this simple concept. When hospitals are back to normal then the country can get back to normal.
They have not been overwhelmed at all. They had plenty of space in MA last March/April when it was at its worst here. The media will go to one hospital that is crowded and make it seem like there aren’t enough beds treat people when there is plenty of space in the hospitals. What can’t dump people like you understand?
Its really this simple.
Control pandemic. Then reopen or "go back to normal".
Sadly, we continue to insist on cart before horse.
This whole thing could easily be controlled with no vaccine by adhering to basic epidemiological principles for 12 weeks. We simply lack the will and will continue to bumble and stumble like Homer Simpson trying to assemble something he bought at Ikea.
To be clear, its anti maskers and covidiots who are prolonging this. Period.
Now, hopefully even in the face of nationwide idiocy, a vaccine will turn the tide. But note, ALL public health measures (including vaccines) work best and are more effective when the disease is less (not more) prevalent. Stomping out a campfire is easier than stomping out a tire fire. We have the latter, so it will take longer.
My guess is May is when the tide noticeably turns. IF all goes well, incremental normalcy may take hold even in March or April but May/June is when it will start to seem normal.
You clearly do not have any idea what Darwinism is.
Hmm, I thought deploying to Iraq a dozen years ago with the 1/38 Infantry and spending a year outside the walls of the FOB would qualify me as one of those "backs ... that helped pave the way for YOUR unappreciative and unapolegitic a$$". But I guess none of us earned our right to have an opinion. We were just killing innocent people for oil, right?
I seriously don't think it is coffee, unless it is some sort of "special" coffee, like the "special" brownies you can buy in Oregon.
On second thought, I think it might be a lot more than just "special" coffee.
Regardless of your gratuitous commentary, I stand by everything I said and every judgment I made.
Tough.
briswiss wrote:
more to it wrote:
Yes it's about protecting the at-risk population, but it's also about keeping our health care system from becoming overloaded. All the selfish people out there can't comprehend this simple concept. When hospitals are back to normal then the country can get back to normal.
They have not been overwhelmed at all. They had plenty of space in MA last March/April when it was at its worst here. The media will go to one hospital that is crowded and make it seem like there aren’t enough beds treat people when there is plenty of space in the hospitals. What can’t dump people like you understand?
Stop the lying. MA has among the finest HC systems in the nation and even they were under stress. Its not just space, its staff. Now numerous states have very stressed HC systems. Utah, ND, SD, El Paso, even Dallas and Austin to name a few.
wegoodbro? wrote:
Yo, our healthcare system is being overloaded by High risk and elderly people.
So back to my original question . . . When they’re vaccinated, we’re good? I can plan spring break?
You can take a vacation safely right now. Just pick a nice Caribbean island and take a PCR test just before you fly...or on landing and spend the first night waiting for an all-clear text. Then you can get back to exchanging bodily fluids with all the other tourists....
And by the way, if you want all those nice vacation places to be there in 2-3 years, you have a duty to go as soon as you can. Some countries depend massively on tourism income and they are hurting.
The islands have done amazing stuff to make sure you are safe - tests required to enter, and no doubt they (and airlines) will be asking for vaccination or immunity certs within a few months.
zxczxcv wrote:
If you were to vaccinate only those 65+ and go back to normal, then you'd have a raging epidemic with hundreds of thousands dying under the age of 65. From February 1 to November 21, according to the CDC, there were 47,000 deaths involving COVID-19 (U07.1) as underlying cause among ages 25-64. 29,888
My God you people are insufferable.
Never did I say only the elderly, I also said “high-risk”. I’d wager those deaths you cited mainly fell into that category.
Nor did I say to STOP vaccinating once those groups were vaccinated. I’m all for everyone getting vaccinated. Believe it or not we can open up before everyone is vaccinated and that is exactly what we should do to limit disaster, pain and suffering of a different kind.
wegoodbro? wrote:
My God you people are insufferable.
Never did I say only the elderly, I also said “high-risk”. I’d wager those deaths you cited mainly fell into that category.
Nor did I say to STOP vaccinating once those groups were vaccinated. I’m all for everyone getting vaccinated. Believe it or not we can open up before everyone is vaccinated and that is exactly what we should do to limit disaster, pain and suffering of a different kind.
If we get 40-60M vaccinated + ~70-90M recovered infections we should be seeing some pretty controllable R_ts. Granted another 20-40M infections than we see now is a lot of deaths (100k +) but realistically that seems to be where we are headed.
I don't think we are "good to go" but things should feel much more manageable. If > half the population has immunity you would see that in transmission stats and could ease most of the most stringent restrictions. Probably keep bars and other tight spaces closed, I'd think.
Sad that we are going to see another 100k ++ deaths to get there at this rate.
^^^ Oops, that assuming no overlap between recovered and vaccinated. Hard to say how big any overlap would be but I'm optimistic that after a few months of vaccine distribution things will get much, much better.
The ones who need it/high risk are the ingrate overweight morans who wouldn't take a vaccine anyway.
So in that regard, problem solved.
I think that if the vaccine population is properly targeted the effect size on transmission, and especially mortality would exceed your prediction.
Wegoodbro? wrote:
Back open, not wearing masks and giving handshakes again, right? March at the latest? Sure sure, the rest of us can mosey on in to a nearby Wallgreens like we do for the flu shot, but media has led me to believe that this is all about protecting the elderly and high risk.
My guess is restrictions and safety measures will follow the active case and death counts. At least that is how they are doing it in Colorado. So, if the case count and death count start dropping because a certain percentage of the population has been vaccinated, then things will start to go back to normal. You only have to remember back in maybe September-October when people were going to big rallies without masks. It's not like we've been locked inside our houses for the past 8-9 months. Things were pretty "normal" in September.
trashcan wrote:
I think that if the vaccine population is properly targeted the effect size on transmission, and especially mortality would exceed your prediction.
The problem is we are already going to see a 10+M more cases before the first dose goes into people. 100k more deaths is on the low end as we likely won't see a peak in deaths from this wave for another 2-3 weeks at the most optimistic end. Hospitalizations are still increasing so deaths should continue to rise.
I'd love to be wrong but I can't see us getting to the vaccine without a lot more death. If we perfectly target the vaccine I agree the effect would be relatively swift. At least the Biden admin will be in charge of it -- can't trust the current admin to do anything COVID related.
Wegoodbro? wrote:
Back open, not wearing masks and giving handshakes again, right? March at the latest? Sure sure, the rest of us can mosey on in to a nearby Wallgreens like we do for the flu shot, but media has led me to believe that this is all about protecting the elderly and high risk.
I don’t see why we wouldn’t be able to go back to normal. But there still be some resistance
I think this thread displays it to an extent, there are people that I sincerely think enjoy “the Covid-era” whether it be for some added excitement in their lives, the sense of community it provides them (“we are all in this together”), or maybe it lets them feel morally superior than those evil “plague spreaders”. They probably didn’t live their homes all that much before COVID and didn’t have many friends so the COVID restrictions really effected them very minimally.
This, combined with the facts that
(a) politicians don’t normally give up power willingly, and COVID has given politicians more power
(b) the media will keep talking about COVID because it does keep many glued to the TV
and (c) People are scared of COVID and will be absolutely traumatized when we get through this
Getting back to “normal” a bit more difficult than it should be
I predict this today’s vaccine hope will turn to hype and that the freeways will not be full of self driving cars by 2020
What you're saying isn't unreasonable, merely incorrect. Vaccinations will help tons, but the number to keep an eye on is the number of active cases per capita in your city/county. When that drops to a negligible level, then life can go back to normal. At 36, you're unlikely to die if you get infected, but there's a moderate risk of wretched symptoms lasting many weeks or months and making a complete mess of your job, training, and everything else that's important to you.
Strong disagree. Given a hypothetical “perfect” rollout you’d see hospitalizations crater in a month or two and cases follow. Nobody would resist easing restrictions.
My concern is over eager relaxation — you want to see the needle move on important stats before declaring COVID over. There’s going to be some issues with distribution — no way around it.