Covid19 Cases Actually AREN'T Rising - Here's Why

I thought the Trump loss tears would last ~2 weeks.

You guys are still crying your guy lost.

Keep it. I love it.

So, the reports are that Trump led by nearly 700K votes, or maybe by 700K votes, and you post that he led by 800K votes. Are you as loose with the truth across the board?

Trump may have been the only President to never reach a 50% approval rating during his Presidency. That's remarkable, especially considering that he was President during a national crisis. He ran for President twice and got fewer votes than his opponent both times. Biden got more votes than any candidate in history, and won more than 50% of the vote. For perspective, Reagan only got 49% when he beat Jimmy Carter in 1980. No doubt, many of those that liked Trump liked him a lot, but those people were a clear minority among Americans. So Biden taking PA, a state that often goes for the Democrat, is neither surprising nor suspicious.

When the votes get counted, sometimes the lead changes.

The Unkle wrote:

ok suree wrote:

Deaths are currently rising again after a fall trough, and we continue the unbroken streak of being above the excess death threshold since March. Try harder.

The excess death threshold?

Did you even click the link? I'll post it again:

The excessive death threshold represents the upper bound on the 95% confidence interval for the average death per week. We've surpassed this threshold every single week since March. Probability that this has occurred by random chance is .05^(# of weeks since March 15). That's an astronomically low number.

Honestly Unkle, you are embarrassing. If you were a professional in any sort of data science field, you'd be laughed out the door by your colleagues. The Benford's Law argument is so easily debunked.

Here's a video to help.

ok suree wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

The excess death threshold?

Did you even click the link? I'll post it again:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard

The excessive death threshold represents the upper bound on the 95% confidence interval for the average death per week. We've surpassed this threshold every single week since March. Probability that this has occurred by random chance is .05^(# of weeks since March 15). That's an astronomically low number.

obviously observed deaths will exceed expected deaths...

and yes, obviously the CDC measures US totals, but don't think these problems only apply to third world countries. Again, consider people missing elective surgeries, other ppl kept out of hospitals and doctor offices, drug and alcohol abuse, suicide, increased crime, and more.

Lockdowns are causing this, and all for a virus that is very transmissible and hardly deadly. Don't believe me, look at the various death rates reported by major organizations and institutions.

And even if your argument was right that deaths from covid are increasing and covid is getting worse, then you're just admitting that lockdowns don't work, social distancing doesn't work, and masks don't work.

Smarten up

suree wrote:

Smarten up

Take your own advice, Mr. "Trump won".

Cases are rising. Deaths are rising. It's obvious if anyone without an agenda takes a clear eyed look at the available data. In fact, an honest analysis of the numbers suggests a MASSIVE surge is building.

If that's not enough, let me tell you my personal experience as a front line ER worker. We had a ton of cases in June and July. I would see at least a dozen COVID patients a day(people with fever, cough, dyspnea in the middle of the summer who test + for COVID). This matched Arizona's surge. Then the cases went away. I didn't see a COVID pt for 6 weeks, maybe 2 months.

Now, it's everywhere again. I see sick COVID+ patients all day. It matches the numbers.

It's hard for people to believe numbers when they can't actually see or experience what's happening. Healthcare is very private. But It's blatantly obvious to me this surge is back and it's gonna be far worse than the summer wave.

To suree. If anything were admitting people aren't social distancing and too many people aren't wearing masks. Thats why its not working. Sorry if I don't want to hear anything you say after the Trump prediction using your "empirical data and modeling" give me a fuc---- break!!!!

suree wrote:

Again, consider people missing elective surgeries, other ppl kept out of hospitals and doctor offices, drug and alcohol abuse, suicide, increased crime, and more.

Lockdowns are causing this, and all for a virus that is very transmissible and hardly deadly. Don't believe me, look at the various death rates reported by major organizations and institutions.

It annoys me that people make assertions without supporting evidence, but the recurring "lockdowns are increasing other causes of death" meme seems plausible enough on the surface that it was worth looking into.

This plot is from the CDC's "Weekly Counts of Deaths by State and Select Causes, 2019-2020" data. As a crude basis for excess deaths, it takes the weekly 2020 deaths by cause and subtracts the 2019 deaths per listed cause.

1) There does seem to be excess "Diseases of heart" deaths correlated with COVID outbreaks, but about an order of magnitude smaller than COVID-attributed deaths.

2) No idea what's behind the rise in the "not elsewhere classified line" and would be interested in informed opinions on this.

3) No obvious correlation between COVID and other cause of death classifications in this (crude) view.

4) COVID is classified as the "underlying cause of death" in the overwhelming majority of "U071, multiple cause of death" (aka "deaths with COVID" in LetsRun speak), contradicting the popular meme here.

Clicked to see if your argument was as stupid as your title. You didn’t disappoint. Kudos.

Nice chart, thank you.

The COVID deniers only have one option when they see this data:

"The CDC is lying, all doctors in the USA are lying, and the Trump admin is lying." Only if you stick your head in the sand and disregard all data can you hold a COVID-denial view.

Clearly you haven't seen the latest post from TheGREATResetTruths.blogspot.cz that blows apart your entire reality.

Harambe wrote:

Nice chart, thank you.

The COVID deniers only have one option when they see this data:

"The CDC is lying, all doctors in the USA are lying, and the Trump admin is lying." Only if you stick your head in the sand and disregard all data can you hold a COVID-denial view.

I can see this a futile effort. We can all find models, metrics, extrapolations, and so on to support our narratives. Heck, we can use the same exact information and still draw totally different conclusions. Confirmation bias is everything.

Frankly, do whatever you want. Wear your masks, social distance, restrict your freedoms, follow your orders and continue to perpetuate irrational fear over a virus that 99.8% of people survive. The rest of us without low-T will live our lives normally.

Harambe wrote:

I thought the Trump loss tears would last ~2 weeks.

You guys are still crying your guy lost.

Keep it. I love it.

I did not vote for Trump.

This does not mean I am blind to the way his substantial leads in many swing states disappeared as the days following the election passed.

Anyone not a complete cuckold of the establishment is concerned by this

[quote]runnER/DR wrote:

Cases are rising. Deaths are rising. It's obvious if anyone without an agenda takes a clear eyed look at the available data.

Sure.

If you believe the media.

And not your own eyes

Harambe wrote:

I thought the Trump loss tears would last ~2 weeks.

You guys are still crying your guy lost.

Keep it. I love it.

it's only been 2 weeks? well, I guess that's better than the Dems crying for 4 years...

which reminds me, there's more evidence of election fraud than there ever was of Russian "collusion."

In case you need a refresher:

suree wrote:

ok suree wrote:

Deaths are currently rising again after a fall trough, and we continue the unbroken streak of being above the excess death threshold since March. Try harder.

raw death totals are different from death rates. Many 'deaths from covid' are technically 'deaths with covid.' Flu deaths are also conflated. You also seem to be missing the point. People may have remnants of the virus detected by the high PCR threshold and are labeled as dying from covid when they actually die from something else. Remember, hospitals are financially incentivized heavily to make covid diagnoses. But all this aside, the covid survival rate has always hovered around 99%. The lockdowns are potentially killing millions from starvation in undeveloped and distressed countries. In developed countries, the deleterious health effects are numerous. The 'pandemic' isn't deadly at all. Your virtue-signaling impresses nobody.

Hospitalizations through the country have surged.

What would it take for you to believe you are wrong.

Ok suree have you real evidence.

Gave you real evidence