Race to top wrote:
9:29 for 3200 is about 9:32 for 2 miles. That is 4:46 per mile. She averaged 5:0x per mile in a 5k cross country race. Seems pretty reasonable.
Her PB is 4:43.3 mile in 2019 (about 4:41.7 for 1600m) She ran a 4:45 mile indoors in the winter of 2020, and would have run much faster but the season was cancelled.
Without the races from last year's outdoor season, it will require much more effort to get below 4:40 for a mile this year. Hutchins' 9:49 was from Aug 2020, and that showed in her Huntsville 5K CC race of Nov 2020.
For a HS girl to go out in 4:46 for the 1st 1600m of a 3200m, one expects a PB 1600m of around 4:36-38.
That does not imply she can close in 4:46 pace, but probably close in 4:54-58, so that she would run a 3200m between 9:40 - 9:44. Hutchins didn't run a mile that fast yet.
If HS girl is more of a 3200m runner than a 1600m runner (i.e. not fast), and she expects to run even splits as you suggested, I would estimate she needs a 4:28 1600m (maybe faster) to run a 9:29 for 3200m.
However, Hutchins has a very good 400m from 2019, so she is not slow. Therefore, I think Hutchins needs a 1600m around 4:24 in order to run 9:29 for 3200m.