My Speed Rating concept is derived from the original speed rating concept of Andrew Beyer for betting thoroughbred horse races … The utility of the concept was recognized as useful tool and was included in the Daily Racing Form Past Performances sold at race tracks … the numbers are currently referred to as the Beyer Speed figures which are a modification of the original speed ratings I find more useful for both horse racing and high school XC.
Simplified, the concept is basically “who beat who and by how much” … The rating numbers derived approximate the speed, on a relative basis, of “how many lengths” one horse is ahead or behind other horses … That is something I want to know when betting serious money!
Part of the concept is using large datasets to determine the relative speed of different classes of horses … then, using that data, determine the relative speed of individual horses … and once you have a series of speed ratings for individual horses, that data becomes the primary source of deriving future speed ratings … It is how horses rate relative to each other and NOT the race course.
For high school XC, I classify races by quality … I classify races individually that occur annually … I classify groups of runners … and I make “profiles” for these classifications for potential comparison to similar profiles.
My Speed Ratings are for “relative” comparison and NOT “absolute” comparison common for track & field.
Instead of horse lengths, I look at time differences between runners in XC … Thank goodness for fast computers, for some races, I use my data bases to calculate the time differences between “each and every runner in a race AND their previous races” to get a relative comparison (who closed time gaps, who widened time gaps, and by how much) … For those familiar with my speed ratings, that data can be extracted directly from individual speed ratings.
Margin of Error … I classify every race with a degree of accuracy (highly certain, certain, probably acceptable, uncertain (“ball-park”, future watch), unacceptable for now, unratable) … Highly certain and certain are common mid-season to post-season with races and runners for which I have sufficient data … Highly certain is 0 to 1 speed rating points, certain is 1 to 2 speed rating points … and I classify these as if I will be betting serious money!
XC speed ratings are like horse speed ratings in that:
(1) It is the handicapper’s responsibility to know if the race conditions were fast, slow, muddy, cold, windy, difficult, easy, tactical, all-out, etc … and evaluate that with respect to the speed ratings and how it may or may not affect the outcome or projection of an upcoming race … Sometimes, speed ratings are NOT the primary reason for predicting outcomes.
My speed ratings do not need corrections for the purposes intended … I’ve already talked about the 2.5-scaling and why most high school races (2.6 to 3.11 miles) do not need any corrections or micro-management … It would mostly be a waste of time in my opinion.
Trying to correct a “relative” a number to make it more “absolute” so people can make “absolute comparisons” is not for me or my speed ratings.
Amber Trotter … I know her 180 speed rating is accurate and I no longer give a damn if anybody else agrees … It was who she beat and by how much (THE Speed Rating Concept).
As I have said before, I wish I had never made my speed ratings public … I’m getting old … I spend too much time on high school XC … The complaints, demands and requests from parents and coaches have increased … Demands that I explain things to their satisfaction … It’s time to go back to horse racing full-time while I still can … Making large bets based on speed ratings, track bias, and trip-handicapping with the resulting “Thrill of Victory or Agony of Defeat”.