250,000 Americans, but yeah let’s cry about race cancellations

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  • voted out, pants out
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 2:34pm CST
    re: Giovani
    Forum Index
    Giovani wrote:

    So there's been "excess deaths" nearly every week since 2017?


    No. there 7 weeks above the threshold for excess deaths from Jan 2017 to March 2020.

    .....then about 25 straight weeks since March 2020 counting.

    There have been more excess deaths every single week in 2020 than the total of all excess deaths from Jan 2017 to mid march 2020 combined.

    In other words, every single week in 2020 since April equals more excess deaths in one single week than we saw in 3 years total.

    make sense?
  • voted out, pants out
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 2:36pm CST
    re: voted out, pants out
    Forum Index

    wait for it...it's coming...... the part where he throws the numbers out because they don't line up with his preconceived conclusion.
  • Giovani
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 2:38pm CST
    re: voted out, pants out
    Forum Index
    voted out, pants out wrote:
    Giovani wrote:

    So there's been "excess deaths" nearly every week since 2017?


    No. there 7 weeks above the threshold for excess deaths from Jan 2017 to March 2020.

    .....then about 25 straight weeks since March 2020 counting.

    There have been more excess deaths every single week in 2020 than the total of all excess deaths from Jan 2017 to mid march 2020 combined.

    In other words, every single week in 2020 since April equals more excess deaths in one single week than we saw in 3 years total.

    make sense?


    Download the excess death data tables.
  • voted out, pants out
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 2:46pm CST
    re: Giovani
    Forum Index
    Giovani wrote:
    voted out, pants out wrote:
    Giovani wrote:

    So there's been "excess deaths" nearly every week since 2017?


    No. there 7 weeks above the threshold for excess deaths from Jan 2017 to March 2020.

    .....then about 25 straight weeks since March 2020 counting.

    There have been more excess deaths every single week in 2020 than the total of all excess deaths from Jan 2017 to mid march 2020 combined.

    In other words, every single week in 2020 since April equals more excess deaths in one single week than we saw in 3 years total.

    make sense?


    Download the excess death data tables.


    no, you.
  • Harambe
    registered
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 2:53pm CST
    re: Giovani
    Forum Index
    Giovani wrote:
    voted out, pants out wrote:
    Giovani wrote:

    So there's been "excess deaths" nearly every week since 2017?


    No. there 7 weeks above the threshold for excess deaths from Jan 2017 to March 2020.

    .....then about 25 straight weeks since March 2020 counting.

    There have been more excess deaths every single week in 2020 than the total of all excess deaths from Jan 2017 to mid march 2020 combined.

    In other words, every single week in 2020 since April equals more excess deaths in one single week than we saw in 3 years total.

    make sense?


    Download the excess death data tables.


    I actually linked to the technical notes so you could read how they calculate the baseline
  • DanM
    registered
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 2:53pm CST
    re: get well soon
    Forum Index

    How many of the 250,000 would have died in 2020 anyway ?

    2.9 Million were projected to die in the US in 2020 before anybody heard of COVID-19.
  • Monkeys typing
    registered
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 2:59pm CST
    re: Giovani
    Forum Index
    Giovani wrote:
    "Excess deaths" are a wholly mythical number without any citation of a "normal" baseline.

    It isn't really necessary to calculate a "normal" baseline to look at annual deaths and conclude that this isn't normal.
    https://monkeystyping.neocities.org/weeklyDeaths.png
  • Harambe
    registered
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 3:03pm CST
    re: DanM
    Forum Index
    DanM wrote:
    How many of the 250,000 would have died in 2020 anyway ?

    2.9 Million were projected to die in the US in 2020 before anybody heard of COVID-19.


    The term "excess" is lost upon you, isn't it.
  • The Juice
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 3:17pm CST
    re: Harambe
    Forum Index

    I'm curious if the death rate will actually be lower than usual next year, considering that we will likely be left with a healthier population than in typical years.
  • voted out, pants out
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 3:19pm CST
    re: DanM
    Forum Index
    DanM wrote:
    How many of the 250,000 would have died in 2020 anyway ?

    2.9 Million were projected to die in the US in 2020 before anybody heard of COVID-19.


    lol....look at this guy...absolutely refusing comprehension even when placed before him on a platter.

    what determination!

    don't worry DanM, I have full faith in you!.....never fear! you will never comprehend excess death data even when it is right in front of your face.
  • voted out, pants out
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 3:20pm CST
    re: The Juice
    Forum Index
    The Juice wrote:
    I'm curious if the death rate will actually be lower than usual next year, considering that we will likely be left with a healthier population than in typical years.


    don't discount the long term damage of Covid though
  • Giovani
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 3:28pm CST
    re: voted out, pants out
    Forum Index
    voted out, pants out wrote:
    Giovani wrote:
    voted out, pants out wrote:
    Giovani wrote:

    So there's been "excess deaths" nearly every week since 2017?


    No. there 7 weeks above the threshold for excess deaths from Jan 2017 to March 2020.

    .....then about 25 straight weeks since March 2020 counting.

    There have been more excess deaths every single week in 2020 than the total of all excess deaths from Jan 2017 to mid march 2020 combined.

    In other words, every single week in 2020 since April equals more excess deaths in one single week than we saw in 3 years total.

    make sense?


    Download the excess death data tables.


    no, you.


    The sound of you realizing you were wrong after your little outburst. You actually don't even need to download them, just expand the table.
  • i bet he coukd
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 3:32pm CST
    re: voted out, pants out
    Forum Index

    They didn’t die OF covid they died WITH covid. I work at a hospital. This is true. Guy who is asymptomatic falls off a roof and dies. Testis positive for covid in the trauma bay. This is a “covid related death”. It all total BS.
    If everyone lived normally and we stopped testing n one would notice a difference.
  • The Juice
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 3:45pm CST
    re: voted out, pants out
    Forum Index
    voted out, pants out wrote:
    The Juice wrote:
    I'm curious if the death rate will actually be lower than usual next year, considering that we will likely be left with a healthier population than in typical years.


    don't discount the long term damage of Covid though


    I haven't seen any hard data on that. It's mainly conjecture even on the CDC website. With over 9 million cases, they should be able to quantify damage that they have seen in various organs that is not likely to be restored within several years.

    It makes me think they don't have much to go on, or, if they do, for some reason they're not coming out with it.

    Next year, I will be watching the death rate to see if my hypothesis holds true.
  • Harambe
    registered
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 3:50pm CST
    re: Giovani
    Forum Index
    Giovani wrote:

    The sound of you realizing you were wrong after your little outburst. You actually don't even need to download them, just expand the table.


    You're reading the table wrong. There's 3 columns.
    Observed Number: number of deaths reported (this is not excess deaths)
    Upper Bound Threshold: top of 95% confidence interval from their excess deaths model. Basically - above this level we are 95% confident that any more deaths are truly in excess of average
    Average Expected Number of Deaths: average number of deaths for this week the model predicts. A less stringent excess death threshold than the upper bound.
    You can calculate excess deaths by subtracted the Observed Number of deaths from either of the two thresholds to get two measures of expected deaths. They are actually reported in a tooltip if you hover over a week on the chart. You are given a percentage excess range that is (1 - (observed/upper bound)) to (1- (observed/average expected)).

    You'll see only a few weeks in the dataset have deaths in excess of the upper bound threshold until 2020.. then basically every week does.
  • KAV
    registered
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 4:03pm CST
    re: Harambe
    Forum Index
    https://www.aier.org/article/cost-of-us-lockdowns-a-preliminary-report/
  • The Unkle
    registered
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 5:05pm CST
    re: Harambe
    Forum Index
    Harambe wrote:
    DanM wrote:
    How many of the 250,000 would have died in 2020 anyway ?

    2.9 Million were projected to die in the US in 2020 before anybody heard of COVID-19.


    The term "excess" is lost upon you, isn't it.


    Afraid to answer his question I see.
  • kirkandorules
    registered
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 6:48pm CST
    re: get well soon
    Forum Index

    These things have nothing to do with each other, none of the 250,000 842 year old people who are already half dead are participating in races anyway.
  • voted out, pants out
    2 months ago 11/20/2020 9:57pm CST
    re: Giovani
    Forum Index
    Giovani wrote:
    voted out, pants out wrote:
    Giovani wrote:
    voted out, pants out wrote:
    Giovani wrote:

    So there's been "excess deaths" nearly every week since 2017?


    No. there 7 weeks above the threshold for excess deaths from Jan 2017 to March 2020.

    .....then about 25 straight weeks since March 2020 counting.

    There have been more excess deaths every single week in 2020 than the total of all excess deaths from Jan 2017 to mid march 2020 combined.

    In other words, every single week in 2020 since April equals more excess deaths in one single week than we saw in 3 years total.

    make sense?


    Download the excess death data tables.


    no, you.


    The sound of you realizing you were wrong after your little outburst. You actually don't even need to download them, just expand the table.


    honestly wtf are you talking about. It would take a special kind of subgenius not understand that chart....but somehow you've managed. do those giant spikes in the blue bars somehow confuse you? i would offer to draw a picture but I just gave you the picture lol.

    good lawwwd
  • Bad Wigins
    registered
    2 months ago 11/21/2020 1:38am CST
    re: The Unkle
    Forum Index
    The Unkle wrote:
    Harambe wrote:
    DanM wrote:
    How many of the 250,000 would have died in 2020 anyway ?
    2.9 Million were projected to die in the US in 2020 before anybody heard of COVID-19.

    The term "excess" is lost upon you, isn't it.

    Afraid to answer his question I see.


    Question shouldn't even grant the number 250k. It's proven false; includes people who didn't have coronaviral disease.

    Coronaphobes' weak substitute tactic of pointing at supposed excess deaths is a red herring founded on correlation/causation fallacy. Many things can cause excess deaths, such as massive social upheaval due to lockdowns. There is not even circumstantial proof that a coronavirus has killed that many.

    Of the half of supposed deaths that occurred in nursing homes, certainly a huge proportion would have died anyway.
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