Ran a 17:59 with not much training. Can I break 16 minutes within a year?

Sure, sub-16 might be possible depending on how much natural talent you have. It sounds like you're undertrained and ran 17:59 off of very little training. You might also find it a lot tougher going from sub-17 (once you get there) to sub-16. That seems to be the mark where you either make an easy jump in HS & become a D1-D3 runner or you run in the 16's for a while, possibly forever.

My lifetime 5km progression (I'm 37, don't see me beating my PB now) is 18m36s > 16m21s.

Coached by the wizard JS it should be easy I think.

the wizard js = Jävlar Skitstövels

I'd say its a bit of a stretch for sub 16. I ran 18:10 as a freshman and then 15:58 as a senior in highschool. A part of my improvement over the years was due to my increase in training intensity/volume but the bigger part was to do with my physical development as I aged. With you already being 21 and having already started entering your physical prime, I'd say that such a drastic improvement is unlikely within such a short timeframe. I'd also say that the demands of a sub 16 are much much different then the demands of sub 17 and sub 18. For most people 16 minute pace is a lot closer to their max speed for a mile which means they'd have to be in amazing aerobic shape to run that for 5k Maybe shoot for more achievable goals first, then keep working towards sub 16. No matter what you do, increase those miles, but remember sometimes less is more

Best of luck!!

I started running in July 2019 as well. I improved from 30ish minutes in the 5k to 15:56 back in September (and hopefully 15:30s this weekend). A lot of this was weight loss but I did run a 17:32 in the 5k in October 2019 when I was at the same weight as I am now so still some good improvement since then. Here is monthly mileage with times in parenthesis when I happened to run a race (or more accurately solo time trial) that month. The mileage jumps around a little due to a few injuries but you should get the picture.

I would not say I am particularly talented. Improvements in the last year have largely been found in consistency. I tend to get injured above 70 miles a week so spend most of my time 60-70 miles and trying to focus on quality days.

June 2019 - 50.9

July 2019 - 67.5

August 2019 - 123

September 2019 - 212.5

October 2019 - 230.3 (HM: 1:33, 5k: 17:32)

November 2019 - 316.8 (HM: 1:23, 5k: 16:40)

December 2019 - 315.5

January 2020 - 241

February 2020 - 237 (M: 3:14... ouch)

March 2020 - 210

April 2020 - 260 (HM: 1:16:40, 5k: 16:14)

May 2020 - 307.4

June 2020 - 162.4

July 2020 - 249.2

August 2020 - 310.2

September 2020 - 241.7 (5k: 15:56)

October 2020 - 286.1

November 2020 (to date) - 164.6 (3k: 9:08, 5k: ???)

Here are the exact amount of miles I've ran over the past 12 months:

November 2019: roughly 30

December 2019: 59.1

January: 52.2

February: 6.1

March: 8.2

April: 22.2

May: 40.1

June: 56.2

July: 80.5

August: 73

September: 51.4

October: 48.3

This month so far: 35.4

Averages out to just under 47 miles a month, which is roughly 12 miles a week.

For some reason I feel like I have a natural talent for running, because I also was a daily weed smoker for 3 years and vaped briefly, and to this day I drink far too much alcohol. With all of these bad habits, I was still able to break 18 minutes. I know that it is harder to shave time off the better you get, but I feel like I am nowhere near my potential and I think running sub 16 is actually well within my reach within 12 months, if not 6 months. After crunching the numbers I realize that I was running a fair amount less than I thought, but it makes me even more confident that I can do it.

This being said, does it sound like I have a slight natural talent in running? Also, is it just wishful thinking that I can break 16 within 6 months or does it sound realistic with consistent mileage increase?

elliotschneider wrote:

I know that it is harder to shave time off the better you get, but I feel like I am nowhere near my potential and I think running sub 16 is actually well within my reach within 12 months, if not 6 months. After crunching the numbers I realize that I was running a fair amount less than I thought, but it makes me even more confident that I can do it.

Again, I don't think sub 16 is at all a realistic progression from your current time, even with obvious under training. like i'll just be blunt, 18 flat is not that good. At your age, it doesn't indicate that you have a significant enough pool of talent to warrant such a dramatic progression. There have been 15 year old kids that i've known who've achieved the same times with similar training and never went on to break 16. I'm not saying you never can break 16 but within a year? no way. And definitely not within 6 months.

you'll see

17 year old here, it is defo possible to go sub 16. From your 5k time and mileage, it is apparent you have good running genetics and an increase of mileage will result in big gains.\

I started running in sophomore year cus the cross country team had some sweet lookin girls on. I had literally no fitness and no experience in any other sport , the first 5k i ran the first week i started (0 miles per week at this stage) and i finished in 21:20. I quickly fell in love with the sport and fast forward a year i ran a 15:57. I turned out i had lots of natural talent for the sport. All that mileage made me pretty skinny so i decided to take up lifting that summer, now i have 30lbs more muscle and a 1:52 800m.

Anything is possible if you have talent and are willing to put in the work.

elliotschneider wrote:

you'll see

I think the poster saying it isn’t possible is being overly pessimistic. I think, however, you are being overly optimistic. Nothing you have done shows any sort of outrageous talent. That said, 16 minutes is not that outrageous of a time.

What isn’t clear based on your history is if you have the dedication and the physical ability to string together consistent higher mileage weeks with some good quality in them. This is what you will need to do in order to make that sort of progress in a 12 month period. You should temper your cockiness until that point.

I wasn't trying to be cocky, I just feel confident that I can do it. I am by no means an elite runner or anything like that but I am going to work extremely hard and since I haven't trained much I am just expecting a lot of improvement. Time will tell, and perhaps I am being overly optimistic, but I still believe it is within reach before long

elliotschneider wrote:

I am going to work extremely hard

That will make you even less likely to succeed.

For your 100% effort to be 2 minutes faster than your old 100% effort has nothing to do with being able to make more effort. If you're serious, focus on getting faster without working harder.

I can see your point. I didn't mean that in my workouts I am going to push myself to exhaustion every time, or that I am going to up my mileage too quick or anything like that. When I say I am going to work extremely hard, I mean that I am going to be seriously dedicated now more than ever. By that I mean I am going to work hard to avoid injury, will take my easy days slow, get quality speed sessions/tempos in when appropriate, good diet and sleep, and everything like that.

I understand that I can't go out there and push it every single day. I am just ready to grind and to also be patient with the grind and take it day by day. I've fallen in love with this sport and I'm going to do my best to stay healthy and to see steady improvement

Why not start a training thread or begin posting in the Road Racing and Training thread that goes up weekly. At a minimum I am sure you will get a lot of good feedback and it can be good motivation to see other people’s training. It has been invaluable to me at least.

Also, it is ok to have lofty mid to long term goals but I recommend an immediate goal of like 17:15 or something with an associated volume goal. Running rewards patience, consistency and incremental progress rather than bravado and getting all pumped up for 48 hours about some currently unreachable time.