North Dakota: a shining example of how to not handle coronavirus

Interesting. There might be - close to - herd immunity in Queens, Brooklyn, Bronx etc. But not upstate. And not even close to in most parts of USA. Trying to achieve it, without a vaccine might have uintended consequences, also for the economy. Swedens strategy did not work, and it didn't help their economy very much, compared to their neighbors. Now the situation in Sweden is desperate again. They are imposing a lot of restrictions and will be close to a lockdown, whether they like it or not. Because they know what is coming three/four weeks from now. And it will hurt their economy for the second time. This is an unsolved dilemma. Both USA and Sweden reacted too slow. They had the chance, but blew it.

Deaths per million in New York State: 1733

Deaths per million in North Dakota: 862

Here is a recent report where cases are growing the fastest in New York;

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/county-by-county-covid-19-cases-per-100000-residents-in-new-york-state/71-08a3ec0b-1506-4187-8a2b-3e2992017b9f

I'll help you out, it's not in the five boroughs. I did an analysis about a month and a half ago and revisited the numbers. The 5 boroughs haven't changed much [Manhattan (1% increase in deaths), Richmond (1% increase in deaths), Queens (2% increase in deaths), Kings (2% increase in deaths), and the Bronx (1% increase in deaths) haven't seen much movement over the past month and a half in terms of deaths from COVID].. Most of the growth has been in places like Allegany (7 fold increase in COVID deaths), Chemung (doubling of COVID deaths), Cayuga (1.5 times the number of COVID deaths), Seneca (1.25 times the number of COVID deaths) and Wayne (2.5 times the number of COVID deaths) counties, where the initial exposure was much less.

Here is the raw data:

New York State Assumed IFR 0.0026

Fatalities Residents Actual Cases Exposure Rise in Deaths

Albany 132 305,917 50,769 17% 11%

Allegany 29 45,914 11,154 24% 710%

Bronx 3408 1,416,950 1,310,769 93% 1%

Broome 117 189,059 45,000 24% 40%

Cattaraugus 21 76,030 8,077 11% 77%

Cayuga 5 76,509 1,923 3% 151%

Chautauqua 5 126,599 1,923 2% 52%

Chemung 20 83,014 7,692 9% 209%

Chenango 7 47,028 2,692 6% 14%

Clinton 5 80,951 1,923 2% 19%

Columbia 54 58,932 20,769 35% 17%

Cortland 1 47,797 385 1% 0%

Delaware 6 43,541 2,308 5% 33%

Dutchess 170 294,254 65,385 22% 6%

Erie 674 921,569 259,231 28% 4%

Essex 14 36,878 5,385 15% 4%

Franklin 2 49,991 769 2% 54%

Fulton 28 53,219 10,769 20% 1%

Genessee 6 56,901 2,308 4% 1%

Greene 15 47,525 5,769 12% 1%

Hamilton 1 4,340 385 9% 0%

Herkimer 10 61,081 3,846 6% 5%

Jefferson 1 109,139 385 0% 0%

Kings 5154 2,555,720 1,982,308 78% 2%

Lewis 5 26,189 1,923 7% 5%

Livingston 7 62,759 2,692 4% 7%

Madison 9 70,723 3,462 5% 0%

Manhattan 2128 1,626,540 818,462 50% 1%

Monroe 264 742,550 101,538 14% 5%

Montgomery 9 49,933 3,462 7% 0%

Nassau 2224 1,359,700 855,385 63% 1%

Niagara 93 209,567 35,769 17% 7%

Oneida 134 228,477 51,538 23% 7%

Onondaga 193 461,845 74,231 16% 7%

Ontario 29 110,374 11,154 10% 1%

Orange 423 386,247 162,692 42% 0%

Orleans 56 40,318 21,538 53% 3%

Oswego 4 116,842 1,538 1% 32%

Otsego 5 59,441 1,923 3% 8%

Putnam 64 98,744 24,615 25% 0%

Queens 5151 2,242,990 1,981,154 88% 2%

Rensselaer 44 159,804 16,923 11% 6%

Richmond 765 477,505 294,231 62% 1%

Rockland 516 327,407 198,462 61% 1%

Saratoga 17 232,285 6,538 3% 0%

Schenectady 62 156,422 23,846 15% 27%

Schoharie 2 30,819 769 2% 25%

Schuyler 3 17,886 1,154 6% Infinite

Seneca 2 34,246 769 2% 125%

St Lawrence 5 107,017 1,923 2% 80%

Steuben 72 94,890 27,692 29% 39%

Suffolk 2022 1,476,140 777,692 53% 1%

Sullivan 38 76,336 14,615 19% 1%

Tioga 41 48,380 15,769 33% 81%

Tompkins 0 103,023 0 0% 0%

Ulster 87 178,351 33,462 19% 4%

Warren 30 63,939 11,538 18% 0%

Washington 14 60,613 5,385 9% 0%

Wayne 8 89,448 3,077 3% 244%

Westchester 1480 964,278 569,231 59% 2%

Wyoming 5 39,689 1,923 5% 0%

Yates 6 24,619 2,308 9% 4%

Thank you for the information!!!

Other guy wrote:

a great northern run wrote:

I live in North Dakota. There's definitely something going on. My (Republican, 2A-loving) doctor friends say you do NOT want to be anywhere near a hospital right now. There's no capacity left.

Go visit your local hospitals and you will see this is BS.

Here in MA and NYC they were saying the same thing and people actually went to see for themselves and found there was nothing. Those who filmed it and out it on Youtube found there posts taken down and, in at least one instance, got arrested for filming outside a hospital

This is so stupid. So wrong and tragically stupid. My doctor friends are lying about the local hospital where they work? So I should, I don't know, break in with a camera? And your response about the disaster in North Dakota right now is to dither about Boston in the spring?

They track these statistics, you know. Currently ND hospitals are at 92% ICU capacity, with cases still rising out of control. That's really bad. It means if one of my family members gets appendicitis, there might not be anyone available to operate. They might have to be flown out of state. When the hospitals get this full, people die.

And you think it's all a big media conspiracy that every network and every government agency is in on. What a pathetic joke.

And learn to use the quote function. It's not that hard.

Yes, Covid has gone from an urban to a rural problem since spring. We know this. In ND, we absolutely know this already. It has nothing to do with herd immunity and everything to do with crummy public health compliance rates.

North Dakota is still a ways away from reaching herd immunity. Herd immunity doesn't really kick in until a locale is between 1,500 and 2,000 deaths per million residents (like NY and NJ). This is not really a federal issue. Ultimately the state and local health departments have to determine what rules are in place [as it should be since states are affected at different times and are constructed differently, and as Biden ultimately had to acknowledge (conveniently he didn't acknowledge this until after the election)]. If you have concerns, you should address your state and local governance.

get with the program wrote:

[ I've tried to reason with the likes of you for months and I'm fed up. I would tell you to just go out and ignore science, putting yourself at risk... except that it puts everybody at risk.

Where is the science that shows people with no symptoms at all are transmitting the virus and killing people with it?

a, great northern run wrote:

Other guy wrote:

[quote]a great northern run wrote:

I live in North Dakota. There's definitely something going on. My (Republican, 2A-loving) doctor friends say you do NOT want to be anywhere near a hospital right now. There's no capacity left.

Go visit your local hospitals and you will see this is BS.

Here in MA and NYC they were saying the same thing and people actually went to see for themselves and found there was nothing. Those who filmed it and out it on Youtube found there posts taken down and, in at least one instance, got arrested for filming outside a hospital

This is so stupid. So wrong and tragically stupid. My doctor friends are lying about the local hospital where they work? So I should, I don't know, break in with a camera? And your response about the disaster in North Dakota right now is to dither about Boston in the spring?

They track these statistics, you know. Currently ND hospitals are at 92% ICU capacity, with cases still rising out of control. That's really bad. It means if one of my family members gets appendicitis, there might not be anyone available to operate. They might have to be flown out of state. When the hospitals get this full, people die.

And you think it's all a big media conspiracy that every network and every government agency is in on. What a pathetic joke.

Of course it's a conspiracy. If it were an actual pandemic, we would not need a 24/7 fear campaign going on into its ninth month to be aware of it. The Globe has actually said that the virus is lurking and it is stalking people. It is always surging and spiking and soaring and raging. There are clusters and epi-centers and super-spreaders. This is not journalism. This is propaganda.

It would be funny were it not for the fact so many people take it serious.

I am amazed by so many Covid Beliebers have so many doctor friends and all say the same thing.

Went thru the same BS last spring about the hospitals in Boston being swamped and overwhelmed, until the media began to admit in late April that it never happened.

Trump controls most Republican response to the Coronavirus, namely, to dismiss it and deny it in public (while acknowledging it in private) and to force everyone at his gatherings to go maskless.

So, these lilly-livered Republican governors have kept the pandemic spreading and kept the right-wing part of the population non-compliant with sensible public health measures, which in most cases are exceptionally easy to carry out. And they work really well.

joed1rt wrote:

NY deaths per day at peak @ 1,000. Deaths per day recently @ 20 est. exposure 67% MA deaths per day at peak @ 200, Deaths per day recently @ 20 est. exposure 57%NJ deaths per day at peak @ 400, Deaths per day recently @ 20 est. exposure 72%

Please cite the source for those "estimated exposures." (Otherwise: That which is asserted without evidence may be dismissed without it.) Thank you!

I’ve cited it numerous times if you bother to read. Take the number of deaths in a particular area, divide it by the IFR (in my case I use 0.26%. Different studies range from 0.1% in India to 0.2% (Stanford, Iceland and USC) to 0.6%. I use the 0.26% figure because it was the CDC best estimate and is in line with the observed data. The Iceland study is probably the most reliable as it had the largest sample size. Using that calculation, you get a better grasp of the actual number of cases (not the confirmed number which is highly subjective to the testing criteria in place at the time.

Thanks for your civil response.

So it's *your* estimate. Got it. Thanks again.

formerly present wrote:

Thanks for your civil response.

So it's *your* estimate. Got it. Thanks again.

For those interested, here's a good brief discussion of CFR and IFR.

coronafreedom wrote:

How is it that a state with the fourth youngest population, the fourth least dense population, and one with few tourists ends up in the state that it's in. Hospitals are now at 100% capacity, nurses are asked to continue working even if they had just test positive for COVID-19. Cases and deaths have skyrocketed. Hospitalizations continue to increase at an exponential rate, positivity rate above 25%. Their 7 day average daily death rate of 17.3 may not sound all that troublesome, but would be equal to almost 8000 daily deaths in the country. Not to mention that this death rate seems to continue growing without any sign of slowing down. It is no surprise North Dakota has the lowest mask usage in the country. How is it that such a young, spread out population suffers from COVID this bad?

You clearly don’t get it, do you, and you probably never will. You’re too arrogant. These people are much more self-reliant, rugged, independent, and humble than you’ll ever be. They can grow their own food (while you order from an app), many make their clothes (that you order online), and don’t look down on you like you do them. They don’t need big, expensive government telling them what to do like you do. They don’t live in fear, because they’re not afraid of corona like you are. They just want to be left the hell alone, that’s why they live there, afterall. This disease has an over 99% survival rate and look at all the damage that was done, not only to our economy, but to our education system, relationships, etc. Do you think if this disease was as bad as the so-called experts have led us to believe, that they’d be able to work?

Those people are certainly just as good at dying of COVID as us dumb coastal elites, I'll give them that.

Yes, my estimate backed by multiple studies and in line with publicly accessible data. I’ve shared my logic and have been transparent. I’m not trying to hide anything. If you look at the county level data in New York, it paints a pretty clear picture of where things are at. The data in New York is excellent. Masks slow things, but don’t really stop them.

zxcvxzcv wrote:

Trump controls most Republican response to the Coronavirus, namely, to dismiss it and deny it in public (while acknowledging it in private) and to force everyone at his gatherings to go maskless.

So, these lilly-livered Republican governors have kept the pandemic spreading and kept the right-wing part of the population non-compliant with sensible public health measures, which in most cases are exceptionally easy to carry out. And they work really well.

Trump, who I would say is a Libertarian, (never was part of the Deep State) running under the "R" classification is telling the Republican governors to do exactly what they should be doing. However, some Republican governors are acting more like Libs enacting mask mandates (yesterday Utah implemented a mask mandate that now makes a total of 8 Republican states that have a mandate).

The thing you Leftists don't understand (or are so mind-controlled) is that anecdotally, masks are not working in many of the states that have supposedly exploded. You can shout all you want that the "science is settled," parrot everything King Fauci says and continually fearmonger those who don't want to wear masks.

Colorado is exploding with cases & hospitalizations like there's no tomorrow. We've had mask mandates for months now (and a high compliance rate), business restrictions for months, 10:00 pm curfews now in effect - and the situation is getting worse. The governor and counties officials in the Denver-metro firmly have their fingers on the lockdown button ready to psychologically enslave people at a moments notice.

Look at this graph and please tell me with a straight face that the mask mandate has been effective? ?