How are Europe's Coronavirus Cases so Bad???

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dawnrunner wrote:
Europe is a few weeks ahead of usa. It will hit you as well hard. This is a lesson in the dynamics of exponential growth. The growth function we see in europe has not changed a lot recently. We see exponential growth since a while and now suddenly everybody is surprised. Humans have difficulty to understand exponential growth.

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4runnerII wrote:
-Higher population density
-Higher % use of public transit
-It's colder in Europe earlier in the year.

Don't worry-- winter is coming to the US too...

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Just Another LRC Idiot wrote:

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Tatar wrote:

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huh what wrote:
As for Asia, it increasingly looks like they just have a degree of natural immunity that westerners don’t have.

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Nonsense😂

FAR less wealthy countries have dealt better with COVID than any country in Europe or North America. Yes, they had the infrastructure post-SARS but the ability of government agencies and talent of civil service and politicians in those countries has dwarfed us.

We've just been told since the Reagan days in the 1980s how government is always inefficient and now the rest of the world has pulled a number on us.

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^This. People in many Asian countries are complying with the contact tracing because they believe the government is doing the right thing. They even accept the digital tracking by the GPS devices.

This is not rocket science. Test, trace and isolate will get the virus under control. So many people in Europe and Americas do not want to control the virus.

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Precious Roy wrote:

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Just Another LRC Idiot wrote:
Well, if you let your guard down, the virus wins.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/czech-republic-goes-full-trump-095539118.html

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More than this, it is now clear that containment is not a successful strategy. Italy kept many restrictions in place over the summer, but the virus still surged due to family gatherings and young people having parties outside of bars and nightclubs. Germany's substantial testing and tracing infrastructure could not keep up once the numbers started ticking upward. And there is growing evidence that testing and tracing is ineffective as a strategy to suppress an outbreak because it is too slow and does not find a high enough percentage of cases to stop further transmission. Contact tracing and testing can be effective at stopping local outbreaks when numbers are very low in the community. And that is why it is now clear that the only effective strategy is to go for zero. That is what they did in Asia and Oceania and what the Nordics are struggling to do (save and except Sweden).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2772238

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Precious Roy wrote:

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Just Another LRC Idiot wrote:
Well, if you let your guard down, the virus wins.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/czech-republic-goes-full-trump-095539118.html

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More than this, it is now clear that containment is not a successful strategy. Italy kept many restrictions in place over the summer, but the virus still surged due to family gatherings and young people having parties outside of bars and nightclubs. Germany's substantial testing and tracing infrastructure could not keep up once the numbers started ticking upward. And there is growing evidence that testing and tracing is ineffective as a strategy to suppress an outbreak because it is too slow and does not find a high enough percentage of cases to stop further transmission. Contact tracing and testing can be effective at stopping local outbreaks when numbers are very low in the community. And that is why it is now clear that the only effective strategy is to go for zero. That is what they did in Asia and Oceania and what the Nordics are struggling to do (save and except Sweden).

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Primo Numero Uno wrote:

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Precious Roy wrote:

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Just Another LRC Idiot wrote:
Well, if you let your guard down, the virus wins.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/czech-republic-goes-full-trump-095539118.html

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More than this, it is now clear that containment is not a successful strategy. Italy kept many restrictions in place over the summer, but the virus still surged due to family gatherings and young people having parties outside of bars and nightclubs. Germany's substantial testing and tracing infrastructure could not keep up once the numbers started ticking upward. And there is growing evidence that testing and tracing is ineffective as a strategy to suppress an outbreak because it is too slow and does not find a high enough percentage of cases to stop further transmission. Contact tracing and testing can be effective at stopping local outbreaks when numbers are very low in the community. And that is why it is now clear that the only effective strategy is to go for zero. That is what they did in Asia and Oceania and what the Nordics are struggling to do (save and except Sweden).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2772238

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We're still pretending Sweden is a disaster are.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Oh my god look at the jump in deaths. They breifly went to 6 a day and then back to 3. Oh, the humanity. Herd immunity is imaginary, they're going to go exponential!!!!

We need put Covid Captain Cuomo on the case and he'll fix it up. He knows how to handle Covid. Since he killed literally twice as many people per capita as any place anywhere he's done fantastically. You know C'mon man because of the science man.

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Seyta wrote:

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Precious Roy wrote:

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Just Another LRC Idiot wrote:
Well, if you let your guard down, the virus wins.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/czech-republic-goes-full-trump-095539118.html

---

More than this, it is now clear that containment is not a successful strategy. Italy kept many restrictions in place over the summer, but the virus still surged due to family gatherings and young people having parties outside of bars and nightclubs. Germany's substantial testing and tracing infrastructure could not keep up once the numbers started ticking upward. And there is growing evidence that testing and tracing is ineffective as a strategy to suppress an outbreak because it is too slow and does not find a high enough percentage of cases to stop further transmission. Contact tracing and testing can be effective at stopping local outbreaks when numbers are very low in the community. And that is why it is now clear that the only effective strategy is to go for zero. That is what they did in Asia and Oceania and what the Nordics are struggling to do (save and except Sweden).

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I think you or someone with similar views on the success of Asian nations posted something similar on another thread. I reiterate a point I made there, which is that it is nearly impossible for most European countries to actually eliminate the virus because they have progressive and democratic governments. Australia and New Zealand are the exceptions among western nations, as they are so isolated from the rest of the world (and have low populations). In the case of Latin America, they cannot achieve it simply because they lack the infrastructure, and because most governments are in a constant state of chaos.

The vast majority of East Asian countries (we will exclude the Middle East, because they're faring relatively poorly for a different set of reasons) that managed to fully eliminate the virus had extraordinarily strict policies in place that are only possible because they exist under Authoritarian or near-Authoritarian governments. Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand, and China were effectively saved by the government unilaterally enforcing full quarantines (and often incredibly xenophobic restrictions) with or without consent by the populace. In the case of Singapore, lockdowns were even racially segregated, with migrant workers being forced to shelter-in-place 10 people to a room, while normal residents went about limited daily activity.

South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have the most influence from the west in their governments, and South Korea and Japan are, relatively speaking, currently fare poorly compared to most other Asian nations (though still well compared to the rest of the world). Both have had repeated outbreaks, and are in a constant state of virus whack-a-mole, and they largely rely on cooperation from their populace to maintain control. They have a very educated and fairly homogeneous population, so this has actually worked well.

Taiwan is the one true exception here, but their entire populace is fanatically opposed to China to the point that they ignored all WHO guidelines early on, stopped international travel (particularly from China), and assumed the Chinese government was being dishonest the whole way through. This is probably the one of very few cases where intense xenophobia/racism has actually had substantial benefits.

Compare this to Europe. Like the US, many nations in Europe have had "anti-lockdown protests", which serve nothing but spreading the virus. The same with virtually ALL other protests. BLM protests, anti-police protests, and whatever else, will ALL ensure that the virus cannot actually be fully eliminated, even with serious measures in place. And Europe cannot do anything to prevent this, because these freedoms are inherently part of the political and government culture there. More than that, Europe is far more globalistic than the Asian nations, and individual countries, while managing well, can end up failing due to poor control of their neighbors.

If you want the virus to be eliminated, you effectively need a dictator who can impose incredibly harsh measures and implement punishments so harsh for breaking those measures that no one will actually do it. Barring that, no Nation that is not an isolated Island is going to be eliminating this thing. China imprisoned and executed people for breaking quarantine and trying to leave the Wuhan region, and now the virus is under control. Can you imagine a single progressive European country doing that? They can't even stop their own populations from protesting lockdowns.

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I’m from Belgium.
During summer, restrictions were lifted.
Although wearing a face mask was obligatory in shops and supermarkets, we were allowed to see up to 15 different people per week (close contact).
Later this was reduced to 5 different contacts per week.
And now, with our dramatic figures, we can see 1 person/ week in close contact outside of our nuclear family.
People have been asked to wear face masks in public places, but meanwhile they could see a lot of people privately. This has led to the current situation.
We have a Covid mortality of 1 in thousand Belgians; this figure would mean 328000 deaths in the US.
It’s clear that Covid is very contagious and that asymptomatic or presymptomatic spreading is a big factor.
A positive thing is that less patients (18 % instead of 25%) need transfer to ICU. This is attributed to the widespread use of dexamethasone.
Just my humble opnion.

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Precious Roy wrote:

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Primo Numero Uno wrote:

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Precious Roy wrote:

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Just Another LRC Idiot wrote:
Well, if you let your guard down, the virus wins.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/czech-republic-goes-full-trump-095539118.html

---

More than this, it is now clear that containment is not a successful strategy. Italy kept many restrictions in place over the summer, but the virus still surged due to family gatherings and young people having parties outside of bars and nightclubs. Germany's substantial testing and tracing infrastructure could not keep up once the numbers started ticking upward. And there is growing evidence that testing and tracing is ineffective as a strategy to suppress an outbreak because it is too slow and does not find a high enough percentage of cases to stop further transmission. Contact tracing and testing can be effective at stopping local outbreaks when numbers are very low in the community. And that is why it is now clear that the only effective strategy is to go for zero. That is what they did in Asia and Oceania and what the Nordics are struggling to do (save and except Sweden).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2772238

---

We're still pretending Sweden is a disaster are.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Oh my god look at the jump in deaths. They breifly went to 6 a day and then back to 3. Oh, the humanity. Herd immunity is imaginary, they're going to go exponential!!!!

We need put Covid Captain Cuomo on the case and he'll fix it up. He knows how to handle Covid. Since he killed literally twice as many people per capita as any place anywhere he's done fantastically. You know C'mon man because of the science man.

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Sweden backfills their data. They do not report in real time. Data from last week will get updated as this week goes on. And it is early in Sweden's outbreak. They do have a chance to avoid the worst if they act now. If the voluntary measures recommended by the government have compliance that results in reduced activity that is equivalent to a government mandated lockdown, then they will get this under control quickly. If they keep doing what they have been doing and think that it can't happen to them because Swedes are special, they will be in very bad shape in a few weeks and deaths will take off. What is clear is that any claim of herd immunity in Sweden has been completely eviscerated.

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Precious Roy wrote:

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Seyta wrote:

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Precious Roy wrote:

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Just Another LRC Idiot wrote:
Well, if you let your guard down, the virus wins.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/czech-republic-goes-full-trump-095539118.html

---

More than this, it is now clear that containment is not a successful strategy. Italy kept many restrictions in place over the summer, but the virus still surged due to family gatherings and young people having parties outside of bars and nightclubs. Germany's substantial testing and tracing infrastructure could not keep up once the numbers started ticking upward. And there is growing evidence that testing and tracing is ineffective as a strategy to suppress an outbreak because it is too slow and does not find a high enough percentage of cases to stop further transmission. Contact tracing and testing can be effective at stopping local outbreaks when numbers are very low in the community. And that is why it is now clear that the only effective strategy is to go for zero. That is what they did in Asia and Oceania and what the Nordics are struggling to do (save and except Sweden).

---

I think you or someone with similar views on the success of Asian nations posted something similar on another thread. I reiterate a point I made there, which is that it is nearly impossible for most European countries to actually eliminate the virus because they have progressive and democratic governments. Australia and New Zealand are the exceptions among western nations, as they are so isolated from the rest of the world (and have low populations). In the case of Latin America, they cannot achieve it simply because they lack the infrastructure, and because most governments are in a constant state of chaos.

The vast majority of East Asian countries (we will exclude the Middle East, because they're faring relatively poorly for a different set of reasons) that managed to fully eliminate the virus had extraordinarily strict policies in place that are only possible because they exist under Authoritarian or near-Authoritarian governments. Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand, and China were effectively saved by the government unilaterally enforcing full quarantines (and often incredibly xenophobic restrictions) with or without consent by the populace. In the case of Singapore, lockdowns were even racially segregated, with migrant workers being forced to shelter-in-place 10 people to a room, while normal residents went about limited daily activity.

South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have the most influence from the west in their governments, and South Korea and Japan are, relatively speaking, currently fare poorly compared to most other Asian nations (though still well compared to the rest of the world). Both have had repeated outbreaks, and are in a constant state of virus whack-a-mole, and they largely rely on cooperation from their populace to maintain control. They have a very educated and fairly homogeneous population, so this has actually worked well.

Taiwan is the one true exception here, but their entire populace is fanatically opposed to China to the point that they ignored all WHO guidelines early on, stopped international travel (particularly from China), and assumed the Chinese government was being dishonest the whole way through. This is probably the one of very few cases where intense xenophobia/racism has actually had substantial benefits.

Compare this to Europe. Like the US, many nations in Europe have had "anti-lockdown protests", which serve nothing but spreading the virus. The same with virtually ALL other protests. BLM protests, anti-police protests, and whatever else, will ALL ensure that the virus cannot actually be fully eliminated, even with serious measures in place. And Europe cannot do anything to prevent this, because these freedoms are inherently part of the political and government culture there. More than that, Europe is far more globalistic than the Asian nations, and individual countries, while managing well, can end up failing due to poor control of their neighbors.

If you want the virus to be eliminated, you effectively need a dictator who can impose incredibly harsh measures and implement punishments so harsh for breaking those measures that no one will actually do it. Barring that, no Nation that is not an isolated Island is going to be eliminating this thing. China imprisoned and executed people for breaking quarantine and trying to leave the Wuhan region, and now the virus is under control. Can you imagine a single progressive European country doing that? They can't even stop their own populations from protesting lockdowns.

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This view of East Asians is really bordering on a racist trope. East Asians did not have to be forced with the threat of imprisonment and death to comply with coronavirus measures. Compliance in East Asia was by and large voluntary because people had experience with SARS, MERS and other infectious diseases and understood how important it was to do your part and protect the community. The idea that East Asia would be just like the US but for their autocratic governments demeans the intelligence of East Asians and their very admirable sense of community. It also ignores the fact that East Asian governments have nailed their response while Western governments have floundered. if anything, this observation is an indictment of Western democracy that should have us all taking a very hard look at what our governments are doing instead of constructing a fantasy world where the coronavirus can only be stopped at the but of a soldier's rifle.

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