Official Galen Rupp/Suguru Osako Half Marathon Discussion Thread

i predict that

a) doesnt turn up - 20% chance.

if he turns up;

b) dnf s - 40% chance

if he finishes

c) finishes over around 2 minutes away from WR 100%

whatever time he does wouldnt get him in the all time top 25

he doesnt beat the 98 WR time.

he doesnt beat Mo's best.

If he beats any of those items in c, i will become his biggest fan.

When he doesnt, can we all just shut up about him until he becomes a genuine world class athlete? But not like CC, obv :)

Is Rupp still being coached by Mike Smith (the NAU coach)? Just curious because of Pete’s insta post

Yes. Pete coaches Suguru though

Depending on course and conditions I'm going with 60:10. I dont see him going under an hour nor getting AR/PR. Since his injury problems his last two marathons were DNF and 2:09 (yeah bad course tbf) but because we dont get to see much from him, there's no strong indication that he's in any better a situation to run sub60.

The predictions of 61-61:30 are a bit harsh tho

Will there be pacing lights?

All depends on what kind of shape Galen is in, and the weather of course. He is more than capable of 59-low, but for tomorrow I'll say 60:21.

I don't think we should get too excited.

What does Galen have to gain from going all in on running a fast half?

More likely just a hard effort to test his fitness, keep things going in training, keep sharp, etc.

The fan of the sport in me though would love to be very wrong. Galen is the greatest american and the record would be a feather in his cap. Plus the AR is embarrisingly soft.

I think that he wouldn't be running this if he didn't think he was AR shape. He hinted at "something big in the fall" with that interview he did a couple of weeks ago. I suspect he and Suguru want AR.

For the most part, Rupp delivers when he toes the line.

The timing makes sense too. I'm sure he wants fast PR along with Major wins, and with no races happening this fall and only championship type racing next year, why not do a fast half now?

This is BS...why can't these guys compete against the rest of the US runners?? Holding time trials is exactly what Nike wants and hurts our sport.

Think of all the AR recently out of the Nike camp, all run in an incubator. If everyone had the ability to show up at anyone's race I believe Bowerman/NOP(or whatever they are now) would look way less dominant. Think Chicago(Men), Millrose(Women).

These "events" just widen the gap between the Nike darlings and the rest of the US running world. Funnels more resources into the chosen few and then we wonder why no one else in the US is world class during post season. Running should be about competition NOT TIME TRIALS!!

FarePlay wrote:

This is BS...why can't these guys compete against the rest of the US runners?? Holding time trials is exactly what Nike wants and hurts our sport.

Think of all the AR recently out of the Nike camp, all run in an incubator. If everyone had the ability to show up at anyone's race I believe Bowerman/NOP(or whatever they are now) would look way less dominant. Think Chicago(Men), Millrose(Women).

These "events" just widen the gap between the Nike darlings and the rest of the US running world. Funnels more resources into the chosen few and then we wonder why no one else in the US is world class during post season. Running should be about competition NOT TIME TRIALS!!

Well they could bring all the other american runners to the race.

Still wouldn't be no competition for Rupp.

I expect an AR. 59:20 or so for Rupp, and 59:50 for Suguru.

Ruppwillrun in bouncer fly %. So Hall will be 1/2 marathon AR GOAT till the shoe doping madness stops

quarter of a mile downfield?

are you saying that on a 400m track your hero would have been lapped by the wr?

slobro is correct.

How is the top American time #296 on the all time list? That is pathetic. Nobody has taken that soft record in 12 YEARS?

runnER/DR wrote:

How is the top American time #296 on the all time list? That is pathetic. Nobody has taken that soft record in 12 YEARS?

If you think that's soft, how many years since the marathon AR was set? Rupp hasn't come close to that. If 'pathetic' is your choice of words, perfect.

FarePlay wrote:

This is BS...why can't these guys compete against the rest of the US runners?? Holding time trials is exactly what Nike wants and hurts our sport.

Think of all the AR recently out of the Nike camp, all run in an incubator. If everyone had the ability to show up at anyone's race I believe Bowerman/NOP(or whatever they are now) would look way less dominant. Think Chicago(Men), Millrose(Women).

These "events" just widen the gap between the Nike darlings and the rest of the US running world. Funnels more resources into the chosen few and then we wonder why no one else in the US is world class during post season. Running should be about competition NOT TIME TRIALS!!

Must point out the USATF rule saying various schools or clubs must be invited. Don't all of you remember the thread on this topic during BTC's alleged AR attempts? I don't have it in front of me, but the actual rule was pasted straight out of the rulebook. According to USATF itself, in their extremely unambiguous rule, this didn't count and neither will this. (Although, I'm not under the impression he can break it right now anyway.)

I hope SJD is invited - to film it, at the least. Get some eyeballs on it.

Oh Please wrote:

I think that he wouldn't be running this if he didn't think he was AR shape. He hinted at "something big in the fall" with that interview he did a couple of weeks ago. I suspect he and Suguru want AR.

For the most part, Rupp delivers when he toes the line.

The timing makes sense too. I'm sure he wants fast PR along with Major wins, and with no races happening this fall and only championship type racing next year, why not do a fast half now?

^this is correct

NiceTrollJob wrote:

All depends on what kind of shape Galen is in, and the weather of course. He is more than capable of 59-low, but for tomorrow I'll say 60:21.

After reading that this race was Rupp's idea, and his training has been targeted for a fast half, I've got to revise my prediction. 59:21, new AR.