They could not possibly know the status of this "pandemic" nearly six months from now.
This is a con, all an adenda
They could not possibly know the status of this "pandemic" nearly six months from now.
This is a con, all an adenda
Boston has a rise in coronavirus and it will get worse.
CertifiedEliteMastersHobbyJogger wrote:
This is why the BAA can't provide a date. They are waiting on the release of a viable vaccine and will add a year to that. Even if the BAA tried to establish safety protocols, the road race ban in MA won't allow them to have a race.
What? Who says you have to wait a year?
Moscow held a 20,000+ road race in September. Not saying that people should do that now but why do you need to wait a year to hold a race after a vaccine?
honolulu was cancelled. What was their plan?
CertifiedEliteMastersHobbyJogger wrote:
Notice that the announcement referenced the race as the 125th Boston Marathon and NOT the 2021 Boston Marathon. My hypothesis is they want the 125th to be an in-person event and will postpone until that can happen.
This actually makes sense to me. I'm sure they don't want the 125th running to be some virtual BS race. I just hope it doesn't conflict with Chicago because I deferred my 2020 Chicago entry instead of getting the refund and I want to do the 125th Boston. Haven't done Boston since the 100th running and I'm hoping to do the 150th in 25 years!
A year is conservative, but six months is probably optimistic in terms of distribution.
It's obviously possible to run a mass participation event now - see the Arizona Tempe Ironman, for example. However, if MA considers the Boston Marathon unacceptable now, they will probably continue to see it as unacceptable for many months, or a year or longer after a vaccine.
It's worth noting that the flu vaccine only reduces deaths by about 10%, so if we end up with a vaccine that is around 50 or 60% effective, that may not be good enough for places like MA, period.
I can't help but wonder if there is an opportunity for places like Arizona and South Dakota to become the home for the new marathon majors. I think it's highly unlikely NY or Boston will happen in 2021 in any form resembling their former selves.
I want to run Boston again but only if everyone is safe. I an willing to wait vs going head first into a super spreader event with folks around the world.
For all the whiners, there is a lot to consider.
It isn't just the actual race itself. Safety and health factor in here also:
Runner transportation: social distancing isn't really possible in crammed school buses to get 30,000 runners from Boston to Hopkinton. I believe in masks, but not to the extent that they are a superman cape that can withstand a crowded bus full of who knows what infections and sickness. I also don't think that SOME with Covid symptoms will voluntarily just skip the race and thus risk everyone else.
Expo/Volunteers/Medical: these are a huge challenge in non-Covid times. Now image the normal personnel, expense and logistics taken to the Nth degree with coronavirus precautions in place.
Traveling to Boston and back home: so much potential for Covid with folks coming from all over the U.S. and world. And potential for them to bring Covid back to their communities.
Athlete's Village: Yikes. You can figure this one out.
That's for starters. I'm not a pessimist, just a realist.
The BAA isn't going to purchase shirts, medals, gatorade, event space rentals and everything else it takes to pull off this race with the uncertainty of what's in store over the next year. It would be completely stupid for any race of this size to make the advance investments required without knowing what the conditions will be with virus control/vaccine in 6 months.
This is your answer. It's called uncertainty. Investors hate it, now you can see why. People/organizations/businesses pull back on their purchases when they don't know what's going on. Think about that on Tuesday.
clown country wrote:
umm. sorry wrote:
People are dying daily from a pandemic. Sorry about your inability to run Boston. Do your part and get used to not racing until we have a competent leader.
If BLM protests didn't spread covid, and high school XC meets aren't, why would marathons? Outdoor spread is negligible. GTFO
A new study actually looked into the rate of COVID-19 spread and the impact summer protests had on increases in cases and deaths, and found that the protests did not significantly contribute to an increase in COVID-19 transmission.
Regarding high school xc meets - almost all high schools and conferences have significantly changed how they practice and compete in order to reduce the risk of COVID-19 spread. "Mega-meets" did not take place this fall, nor will most state championship races. Schools are not traveling for overnight meets and are limiting who they compete against to limit the number of individuals each athlete and coach comes into contact with throughout the season. Furthermore, many schools and meets are capping the number of athletes able to compete at each meet, and are also running the meets in waves in order to limit the proximity of athletes on the course. Lastly, many schools are limiting the number of "support people" per athlete.
And, in both the cases of BLM and high school xc meets, masks were worn by the overwhelming majority of participants - whether it be the entirety of the protest or on the start line or side line of a xc meet.
I don't imagine a world in which the Boston Marathon can request these same protocols from participants and also enforce them. Roughly 30,000 people entry the Boston Marathon each year, and I would imagine at least half of those people fly to participate and that at least 3/4 stay in hotels, not to mention the support people who come to watch, cheer, and volunteer.
This is not even considering the COVID-19 travel order that Massachusetts has in place, which requires that all visitors entering Massachusetts, including returning residents, complete a travel form prior to arrival unless visiting from a lower-risk state, AND quarantine for 14 days or produce a negative COVID-19 test result administered up to 72 hours prior to arrival in Massachusetts. There is a $500 fine per day.
Now, if you can imagine a world in which the Boston Marathon can significantly cut the number of participants, require all participants wear masks at all times while not on the course, mandate that all participants follow the Massachusetts COVID-19 travel order AND comply with contract tracers in the event of a positive result, AND ban spectators from the course, then it's possible. But that's not the Boston Marathon everyone loves; it's a version of the Boston Marathon that looks more like the 2020 London Marathon (which was great, to be clear). If a large part of the argument is the economic impact, hosting that particular version of the Boston Marathon will do nothing for the local economy and will in all likelihood only serve to strain it even more.
We will be lucky if the American road racing scene in the summer of 2022 looks somewhat normal. I can't see a fall 2021 NYC Marathon going off either.
If BLM protests didn't spread covid, and high school XC meets aren't, why would marathons? Outdoor spread is negligible. GTFO
Look at this another way, perhaps the runners are not the people that they are concerned with? Health officials may be more concerned about the nearly 1 million spectators that line the course each year. Packed in tightly and shedding viral particles by cheering, yelling, talking, exhaling, etc. Many are drinking heavily due to the Patriot's Day holiday and party scene. This could be one massive super spreader event. Good luck trying to enforce a "No Spectators" order on marathon day.
science wrote:
And, in both the cases of BLM and high school xc meets, masks were worn by the overwhelming majority of participants
Okie-dokie, lil smokie.
the last thing anyone wants to hear but this is a virus that has no cure and is easily spread through close contact with others. it will not go away until we reach herd immunity or there is a vaccine (which is a form of herd immunity.)
this is something we are going to live with. there are no answers, and that is the last thing any politician is going to say. they are all just making stuff up that's why the lockdown rules were completely arbitrary.
more weakness wrote:
As if science is always accurate.
Anyone here over the age of 40 remembers being taught in school there were 9 planets, with Pluto being the furthest.
So now we’re supposed to believe this ‘Covid related science’ as if it is unquestionable?
Poor Pluto! We still believe in you as a planet! Let’s start a movement!
wejo wrote:
What? Who says you have to wait a year?
Moscow held a 20,000+ road race in September. Not saying that people should do that now but why do you need to wait a year to hold a race after a vaccine?
My apologies, wejo. You're right. It helps to have a source (or a few) to back up the 1 year timeline (could be more).
First source is referencing the order of those getting the vaccine. The TLDR is that front line health care workers and the vulnerable are at the front of the line. Generally speaking, healthy runners like us will be towards the back of the line.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02684-9The second source is a recent news article on the timeline of distribution which has to do with manufacturing enough doses to distribute to all. The general thinking is 6 months to 1 year in these types of articles.
https://www.cnet.com/how-to/how-soon-will-there-be-a-covid-vaccine-this-is-where-development-stands-now/The third is a worst case scenario that global vaccination will likely take to closer to mid-decade.
https://www.biospace.com/article/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-likely-to-be-slow-and-take-until-2024/Lastly, the source for why a vaccine is required for Boston. Massachusetts has banned road racing until that or an effective treatment is widely available.
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/safety-standards-and-checklist-indoor-and-outdoor-eventsand
https://www.mass.gov/doc/reopening-massachusetts-may-18-2020/downloadHope this helps. :)
Honestly, 2021 is looking bleak for Boston. 2022 is looking iffy after reading this.
UcantHandleDaTruf wrote:
the last thing anyone wants to hear but this is a virus that has no cure and is easily spread through close contact with others. it will not go away until we reach herd immunity or there is a vaccine (which is a form of herd immunity.)
this is something we are going to live with. there are no answers, and that is the last thing any politician is going to say. they are all just making stuff up that's why the lockdown rules were completely arbitrary.
Trump said this exact thing in the last debate. He’s been saying it since April actually. The virus sucks. We can’t control it. Best we can do is look for treatments and vaccines.
Biden says he is going to “shut down the virus, not the country”. Can’t wait to see how *that* plays out...