How is Sweden doing with COVID-19 today?

You have lots of accusations here.

Do you suffer from a reading disability?

Forgive me for asking, but you systematically keep on misreading what I say, so it's either that or you do it deliberately.

Read through the pages again and try again on what I have actually predicted.

Read carefully though. Hint: Yes, I have most definately mentioned 1/3, but would any reasonable person claim that 1/3 is what I have predicted?

And: You realize a prediction is just a prediction right?

What prediction have I made that is wrong?

I mean, I might very well get a prediction wrong, but have I so far?

I don't have any pride attached to this that makes it difficult for me to admit that a prediction I make might be wrong (I usually mention it while predicting even)

You however can't admit to complete bollocks on what you've written about GDP several times and that Helsedirektoratet's credibility on giving unbiased information is compromised by their very role...

By the way, I happily admit to have remembered Keynes' middle name wrong.

About reading. It is Budda who has problems reading Budda.

Budda now: " Read carefully though. Hint: Yes, I have most definately mentioned 1/3, but would any reasonable person claim that 1/3 is what I have predicted? "

Actually not, because what you predicted some days ago was this. Budda: "more like 1/3 per capita, quite possible even better". That is a prediction. 1/3 of the peak in Belgium and Czechia.

And when we read we have to put it into context, this is about defending the Swedish Strategy. And sure a prediction is a prediction is a prediction. Myself, 70-80. looks as I am going to be falsified.

What is Budda doing. He compares Sweden with Belgium, the hardest hit country in the world. And Czechia which is one of the hardest hit countries in the world this autumn. What do these to countries have commom with Sweden? The size of the population.

Belgium 11,61 M - 1418 deaths/1 M, + 123 deaths today

Czechia 10,72 M, - 756/1M, +48

Sweden 10,13 M - 660/1M - zero deaths reported today, we know why.

Belgium is densely populated, 98 percent in urban areas.

Budda revised his prediction, right, nothing more than a prediction, now 1/2 of the peak in Belgium and Czechia. Their peak in the beginning of Nov, 7 day rolling average. Belgium 205 and Czechia 201. And Budda might be right in his latest prediction.

But he did not compare Sweden with other countries of approx. same population. They have lower deaths/1M than Sweden.

Austria 9,02 M - 344/1M , + 87

Switzerland 8,68 M - 535/1M. + 24

Hungary 9,65 M - 484/1M, + 156

Portugal 10,18 M - 435/1M, + 68

and the most densely populated country of some size in Europe,

Netherlands 17,15 M, 545/1M, + 23.

If you are compared with the worst, well then not so bad for Sweden. But wait a minute. The Neighbors, well they have only half the population. But wouldn't that be the right comparasion? Denmark much more densely populated 5,80 M - 143/1M, + 6

Finland 5,54 M - 71/1M , 0

Norway 5,44 M - 60/1M, 0

But why do we talk about Sweden? Because Sweden has been the bright shining Star for a lot of Americans on these threads. Praized beyond recognition. No lockdowns and people have been moving around, more free.

And the best defence so far comes from Budda. It is late. But tomorrow, I will answer Budda on GDP and some other issues.

We may disagree but you don't call me a murderous psychopath, nor do you dispute blatantly obvious realities of the disease (excess deaths, etc). Don't worry -- my message wasn't intended for you.

Life expectancy in Sweden down for the first time since 1900, according to Statistics Sweden:

https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/news-and-press-releases/projection-covid-19-leads-to-lower-life-expectancy-in-sweden-in-2020/

The same man can't seem to wrap his head around what GDP is or how it is calculated, so he can't even see the flaws of using temporary data from 1 quarter on 1 economic indicator when comparing how countries have fared (economically) in their corona strategies.

I don't judge that per se by the way, most people don't actually understand what GDP tells you or how it is calculated, and that's fine..

But most people also don't claim stuff like it doesn't count towards a country's GDP that a government ads 10% to it's spending because it will make the growth lower in the future..

(John Martin Keynes, which even conservatives across the globe has embraced, would roll in is grave...)

I could go on, but again, what is the point?

(My wife would say I have some slightly masochistic tendencies, but apparantely I am not masochistic enough to try to reason with that man anymore ).

[/quote]

The same man is here again. GDP. I admit that I was sloppy in my comments about GDP in the Nordic countries. And a bit cocksure for the wrong reasons. For that I apologize. Stupid of me.

But my main point was that the other Nordic countries did as well as Sweden when it came to the fall in GDP. Budda argued that Norway had a lot of money and used them - stimulus packages. But all countries did that. For all the Nordic countries, whether they had an oilfund (Norways Goverment Pension Fund Global) or not used stimulus packages. I even wrote that using the fund, i.e big stiumlus, could slow the growth. That was stupid. Because what we discussed was the impact on the GDP, not especially Q2/20, but also that.

The Swedish strategy, so far, did not give them any big advantage regarding GDP. The Nordic countries have come out pretty equal. Forecasts for 2020 for Norway and Sweden; a loss around -3,5 to 4,0 %.

So to impact on Norways GDP. We will know in 2021, probably later in the year. Not easy to estimate. But the stimulus packages didn't work so fast as to have a big impact on Q 2. Gutfeeling about reduced the fall of GDP with not more than 1 % for each of the three Q, i.e. Q 2, 3 and 4. Why not more? Because it was a huge package.

In Norway a capital intensiv export. The special Norwegian industrial structure. I can elaborate this, but Budda knows Norway very well, and he is even, as he says an economist, so he understands. The big support to tourism, restaurants and hotels does not make an impact, well a little bit indirectly. Such a support helped them, even though they were and are closed down, to live and wait for a brighter day. The taxpayers, you and I, and the oilfund, supported rich guys like the Hotelowner Stordalen. And in another direction; which actually was stimulated by the pandemic, Norwegains has bought much more beer, wine and liquors at home; the border to Sweden, stores like Maxbo and grocery shops has had good times. I could go on.

But when SSB, Statistics Norway, is going to evalute this next year they will, as Budda understands, to isolate the impact of the stimulus packages on GDP for each Q.

But all in all, whether a country has to lend money to stimulus packages or borrow them, the way they are used is what matters on GDP. And then back to my main point. The Swedish Strategy has not brought them any, may be a small advantage, so far, The rest is guesswork. We have to wait and see. Did this help your understanding of stimulus packages in Sweden and the especially Norway, Budda? And also of GDP? Not easy stuff. Tentative conclusion: If the Swedish Strategy was meant to give an economic advantage it failed.

SWEDEN TODAY

117 new deaths and 17629 infected since Friday. Compared to one week ago 94 - 17725. It doesn't seem all that bad. Infections at the same level. So may be they have flattened the infection curve. Promising.

Highest 7 day moving deaths at Friday was 32 (Nov 18). Today Nov18 is 35. Highest 7 day moving average today 36 (Nov 20). Because the reporting system fills up backwards. As far back as Nov 11 - 2 more deaths, from 25 to 27.

Exponential growth looks to have stopped in Sweden, but it is too early to tell whether growth will continue, plateau or begin a decline. The 7 day moving average is still climbing, but not as fast as a few weeks ago.

If there is anything that separates Sweden from the rest of Europe it may be that the outbreaks in Sweden came later than those in Europe. Sweden has had the benefit of being able to learn from the mistakes made in the rest of Europe. In the spring, Sweden was able to get testing and tracing infrastructure in place before things got out of control. In most of Western Europe, the spring wave was a surprise and the only option was to shutdown. And with the second wave, Sweden again saw their outbreak happen a few weeks later than the rest of Europe. Had Sweden had their outbreak first, they may have gone a lot longer before putting in place mandatory restrictions. But Sweden had the benefit of seeing that there was little evidence of herd immunity in other countries and were able to take action earlier than many other European countries.

Seems isolation, mask wearing, social distancing have no impact on the % of people who test positive for Covid.

90% of the people in the study who did test positive (2.8% of the group) got no symptoms whatsoever.

Time to consider that these tests for Covid are worthless?

Note that the group that did not participate in the lockdown, etc. actually had a lower rate of positive tests!

No one reads your posts anymore, sorry bro. Only so much time in the day.

Das Unkle wrote:

Seems isolation, mask wearing, social distancing have no impact on the % of people who test positive for Covid.

90% of the people in the study who did test positive (2.8% of the group) got no symptoms whatsoever.

Time to consider that these tests for Covid are worthless?

Note that the group that did not participate in the lockdown, etc. actually had a lower rate of positive tests!

Is this a comment on the situation in Sweden??? Come on, don't be shy.

Allen53 wrote:

Deaths per capita in September 2020 were the lowest ever in Swedish history. Never before have so few died in Sweden in a single month so far back there are statistics, regardless of the month of the year.

Sorry fear mongers- you're lockdowns are creating misery and killing millions all across the planet. You are without question some of the most deranged and insipid people on the planet.

You wrote that one month ago. Waiting for your comments on the facts:

Between 1 January and 31 August there were nearly 6500 more deaths than in the same periode in 2019, which is 4800 more deaths than expected based on the latest population projection for 2020.

That's the way it is. Sorry.

Das Unkle wrote:

https://www.aier.org/article/even-a-military-enforced-quarantine-cant-stop-the-virus-study-reveals/?fbclid=IwAR2obuciyP9cT58omVS0tTDmCTEXAh6C2T6aLU7W-TYYKUPJ28Td6dkRXmM

I am pretty much an free speech absolutist on the same page as Matt Taibbi and Glenn Greenwald. But if someone wanted to make an argument for censorship of disinformation, this article would be a good exhibit "A". The author claims that lockdowns are not effective because a bunch of Marines were put into "lockdown" in an experiment and the virus still spread all over. The author concludes that not even a military style lockdown can stop the virus, ergo lockdowns are useless.

But if you actually look at what a "lockdown" meant for the Marines, you will immediately see that it was doomed to fail. The Marines were very disciplined at wearing masks at all times EXCEPT when EATING AND SLEEPING. The Marines lived in barracks with double occupancy rooms and communal dining facilities. So, EVERY DAY, THREE TIMES A DAY the Marines were eating together without masks. THE VERY ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH COVID 19 TRANSMISSION.

The author cites a study in the Lancet for the proposition that lockdowns did not result in lower percentages of deaths per million. But that same study clearly states that lockdowns and border closures were critical in helping avoid strain on the health systems and were significantly associated with patient recovery rates. The clear point of these libertarian big business think tank pieces like this is that unless everyone is dropping dead, people are going to have to get sick and overwhelm the health system because lockdowns interfere with big business.

It looks like even Sweden realizes that Sweden has failed.

Das Unkle, Sweden. 4. Nov you wrote: "Oh my God. Single figure daily deaths in a nation of 10 million. Three and a half months with single digit deaths except a day of 10".

Even that was not entirely correct. Because the numbers of deaths had just started to climb. Three days before 22 deaths. At 31 October 13. How do you reflect on your comment now? That is was nearly correct. You were just descriptive? No, that would be a misinterpretation of yourself.

A sober analysis. There is a but. Sweden has problems with their testing capacity. They can't keep up right now. Hospitalizatons on the rise. 3 days from now we will know a bit more about infections. And then we will also know, just approx, what 7 day moving average deaths were at the 25 th Nov.

2600 bro wrote:

No one reads your posts anymore, sorry bro. Only so much time in the day.

I believe you are speaking for yourself.

You think you speak for everyone on letsrun.

I can see why you don't wish to consider my posts.

Scientific studies that show the Covid narrative is complete BS.

You would have to admit to yourself that you has been fooled.

And you are not capable of that sort of self honesty.

Not reading that - just trying to save you time since you post a lot (needlessly)!

The Unkle wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

No one reads your posts anymore, sorry bro. Only so much time in the day.

I believe you are speaking for yourself.

You think you speak for everyone on letsrun.

I can see why you don't wish to consider my posts.

Scientific studies that show the Covid narrative is complete BS.

You would have to admit to yourself that you has been fooled.

And you are not capable of that sort of self honesty.

Precious Roy wrote:

[quote]Das Unkle wrote:

https://www.aier.org/article/even-a-military-enforced-quarantine-cant-stop-the-virus-study-reveals/?fbclid=IwAR2obuciyP9cT58omVS0tTDmCTEXAh6C2T6aLU7W-TYYKUPJ28Td6dkRXmM

I am pretty much an free speech absolutist on the same page as Matt Taibbi and Glenn Greenwald. But if someone wanted to make an argument for censorship of disinformation, this article would be a good exhibit "A". The author claims that lockdowns are not effective because a bunch of Marines were put into "lockdown" in an experiment and the virus still spread all over. The author concludes that not even a military style lockdown can stop the virus, ergo lockdowns are useless.

But if you actually look at what a "lockdown" meant for the Marines, you will immediately see that it was doomed to fail. The Marines were very disciplined at wearing masks at all times EXCEPT when EATING AND SLEEPING. The Marines lived in barracks with double occupancy rooms and communal dining facilities. So, EVERY DAY, THREE TIMES A DAY the Marines were eating together without masks. THE VERY ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH COVID 19 TRANSMISSION.

Yes. They followed the Covid rules. Which includes masks and social distancing at all times...except no masks when eating, obviously, and sleeping.

This was published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Did you miss the part where all the efforts made to follow all the Covid protocols did not lower the positive test rate vs. the control group?

This is definitive proof that the Covid protocols are BS. Your knee jerk response? Censorship of course. The Covid believers are big on censorship. Why is that?

Head in the sand is a real good way to get at the truth.

Now don't reply or I will say that you post a lot. And apparently you think it is terrifying to read that.